The only way to really get a picture of what's actually happening will be to use data from past years to show the number of deaths in any locality during a specific time period, and then compare those numbers to the current number of deaths occurring in the same place in the same time frame.
Well now, i believe this is something that been done all the time, for a long time now.
One place where I used to work had a subscription to the weekly
Morbidity & Motality Report, used by those in the statistics and medical professions and which cost a pile of money every year, and I read it avidly.