http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3626977A one-sentence recapitulation is necessary here.
Some months ago, when oil prices were still below $100 but rising, the mountain man primitive started a bonfire on Skins's island alleging oil prices were going to drop, and got a lot of grief from the other primitives about it, and also from franksolich.
ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:04 AM
Original message
I Told you so, I told you so .... Oil Prices
The price of oil dropped yesterday, the largest drop in 17 years.
Every time I came here and said oil prices were artificially inflated and that the mess in the oil patch had nothing to do with supply and demand I was told to eat shit and die; demeaned as an idiot. It was worse than saying the emperor has no clothes, and I don't mean the current emperor either.
Watch.
DCKit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:09 AM
Response to Original message
1. Somebody lost a shitload of $$$$ yesterday.
aspergris (452 posts) Wed Jul-16-08 10:27 AM
Response to Reply #1
29. And somebody MADE a shitload
What most retail investors don't understand is that FUTURES markets (and oil is primarily TRADED in futures) are zero sum
stock markets aren't
zero sum markets (futures, options, forex) have an exact exchange of money. there is never an aggregate win or loss overall in any zero sum market.
In the stock market, in the long run, the VAST majority of investors make money. And that's possible because it's not zero sum
futures market, NO money (overall) is made or lost, once you factor out commission
Shorts BANKED yesterday. I caught some scalp short action but nowhere near the full ride
something to keep in mind about futures markets
Hmmm. The asparagus primitive is a speculator?
Isn't speculating something the primitives are against?
flashl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:11 AM
Response to Original message
2. Petrodollar valuation?
edwardlindy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
3. I agreed with you all along
It's wholly artificial state of affairs.
newfie11 (346 posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:20 AM
Response to Original message
4. I don't think this is the end.
I agree the price is manipulated but I bet it will be back up and fairly soon.
ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Don't think so
Lookie here ....
There are two parts to speculation, you can bet on prices going up and make money, you can bet on prices going down and make money.
Recently all the money has been betting on the price going up and it was indeed a self fulfilling prophecy. Once the price aims the other way Speculators will abandon the market and start making their bets on the price going down - and when that happens, possibly today, then the price will collapse.
Mark my words, by election day you will be paying half as much for gas as you do today. I have said this before - you may have seen the outcry from the peak-oil folks - and if America were to wake up we'd call this what it is, robbery.
Hmmmmmmm.
newfie11 (346 posts) Wed Jul-16-08 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #7
32. I hope you are right but trying to time the market is not for me. I stupidly sold all my oil/coal stocks thinking they were as high as I felt safe. That was 5 months ago! No I am not buying anything right now. Everything is sitting in the money market.
A primitive investor? Isn't investing against the primitive theology?
SpiralHawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. Prices back up along about Nov. 4
And really whirling UP UP UP in Dec. = Jan. as the republicons hand over the keys to the White House...
Of course, the squirrelly hawk primitive forgets the very probable possibility that the Republicans won't be handing over the keys to the White House.
mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:24 AM
Response to Original message
5. I've been attacked over the issue as well.
It's as if people had rather oil prices stay sky high and keep going up just to prove their theories. However, myself, I bought transportation stocks last week betting on decline of oil prices.
Now, I don't get it.
Primitives are whining about high gasoline prices, high grocery prices, low wages.....and here, the primitives have money left over to put into stock portfolios?
One wonders what's up with that.
meegbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:39 AM
Response to Original message
6. Who told you to "eat shit and die"?
Links?
ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Mostly peak oil fanatics
Go do a search, do you think I bother to bookmark every dam post I make?
meegbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #9
24. If you're gonna make statements like that ...
I don't have to prove you wrong, you have to prove you're right. You said it.
For the record, I recall that particular primitive bonfire; the other primitives were not nice, not nice at all, to the mountain man primitive in it.
soothsayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:41 AM
Response to Original message
8. Lehman's energy analyst sez oil will be at $85 at the end of the year.
To me, this means a Dem win, as the new prez won't be moving all our $$$ to Bush's cronies. But what they said was that the Saudis and OPEC realize that you can;t sustain these high prices cuz after awhile it makes people want to seriously make changes to move away from oil dependence.
We are soooooo being played! Peak oil, to me, means the peak prices these crooks have been able to exact from us.
Trump is on Howard Stern's show right now saying that there are ships laden with oil sailing all over the world right now, not even knowing where to put the gobs of oil their carrying around.
mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:48 AM
Response to Reply #8
14. Even extraction of shale based oil is profitable at $2 a gallon of refined gasoline. I had been trying to calculate what the price of oil should be just given the dollar and our inflationary situation and was coming out at between $60-$70 barrel oil though I don't think the industry will settle at that (I think they will settle between $80-$100).
hlthe2b Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:44 AM
Response to Original message
11. Umm, DUers have been demeaning you for saying speculation was behind the oil $$? Seriously? You must have been hanging out in an area of DU that I haven't seen... I think MOST if not rearly ALL DUers ae smart enough to know this... Are you serious?
I dunno.
I suspect most if not really all primitives wouldn't know the difference between their rectal apertures and a hole in the ground, much less anything about weighty complicated financial issues.
Tandalayo_Scheisskopf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #11
23. I have gotten it too.
There are some who seem to welcome the idea of an economic apocalypse.
Personally, while I think that Peak Oil is a cautionary tale for the very near future, a call to substantive action, I also think that the subject has been played as psyops by those who would use it as a cover for rampant and preditory speculation.
"Predatory speculation" such as what some primitives abovequoted have admitted to doing?
KharmaTrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:44 AM
Response to Original message
12. Pain Threshold Check...
Oil dropped last week, then picked up all it lost and then some the next day...and so it goes.
Note that the price dropped as Clueless Paulson and Helicopter Ben were begging for more taxpayer money to bail out their Wall Street buddies.
It seems prices may be "levelling" for now...getting everyone used to the current price...and if prices drop then we're all gonna be "happy campers" to be paying $4 or $3.50 a gallon...taking the heat away from the oil companies for a short bit and then setting the stage for the next run-up.
The speculators are all but played out in the oil game for now...they're on to buying up bushels of September corn, wheat and other commodities...the next big price run up this fall.
GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:53 AM
Response to Original message
15. There are both long term and short term trends.
It's true that oil was artificially inflated (and still is), and it's also true that the dropping dollar is causing a great deal of the price of oil; however, it's also true that the the long term trend is for drastically higher prices because demand will outstrip supply. It's all three of these.
Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #15
27. I agree with you and I think we will continue to see a steady increase in the price of oil with large drops and peaks in price for several years to come.
spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-16-08 07:54 AM
Response to Original message
16. it's election time...troops are coming home. gas is falling. now that damned economy...
It's a reasonably big bonfire.
The
Wall Street Journal Skins's island isn't.
