Public School Enrollment Has Dropped, Closing Schools to Followhttps://hotair.com/john-s-2/2026/05/08/public-school-enrollment-has-dropped-closing-schools-to-follow-n3814748I've noticed these battles playing out piecemeal in places like San Francisco, but school districts across the country are facing the same problem. There are fewer students enrolling in public schools and that means school budgets and staffing are outsized for the job that needs to be done.
Responsible leaders would seek to reduce the size of the staff and the number of schools, but teachers unions and parents often oppose those changes. The result is school districts like the one in San Francisco that delay the inevitable and wind up spending far more than they should be. Many other urban districts are seeing the same dynamic play out.
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There's more than one factor playing into this in big cities. The pandemic led to a lot of people working from home and some of them decided they could do that just as well in the suburbs as in the more expensive city. And families with children may have been especially prone to moving, both because suburbs are often safer and because families that need more space can get it at a better price.
But the big issue is the fertility rate. There are simply a lot less children than there were two decades ago.
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Another factor playing a role is immigration. The huge surge during President Biden's term brought in hundreds of thousands of children who wound up scattered around the US in public schools. Now those numbers are dropping.
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Long term the only solution is closing schools and laying off teachers. But in places like San Francisco, that often doesn't happen until the budget situation becomes dire. SF actually lost control of its budget. In 2024, the state stepped in when the city refused to make changes.
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That was two years ago but efforts to close schools are still ongoing in SF and were making news there just last week.
Some time back in the 70s or 80s, as the surge of high school students from the Baby Boom receded, three San Jose area high schools were shut down. Two have been converted into community centers and other commercial use. The third, a couple of decades later, was reopened with student population growing in the late 90s and the 00s. IOW, shrinkage can be managed reasonably well, but I don't see willingness to be reasonable in many modern educrats, nor with unions.