Romney Double Digit Lead?

[Kyle Ricky]

[/snip]



The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such “rainmaking,” or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.

But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.

Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% “Other.” As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has “52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.”

Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents.  Independents are favoring Romney, not “leaning Democrat,” so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.

Many more strongly disapprove of the president’s job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this election’s most important issue, and the president’s lead on foreign policy is shriveling.

If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream media’s reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.

[/snip]

Read more: http://www.ijreview.com/2012/09/16897-romney-ahead-double-digits-after-unskewing-polls/

With how the polls are so skewed and fixed. I tend to believe that Romney could have a double digit lead. Think about it. Even with the MSM over sampling Dems by 10%+, Romney and obama are tied. That tells you that obama is in some serious trouble.

And if you look at 1980. It was the same way with Carter. The MSM was fixing the polls to make him look like he was going to win by a landslide....And look what happen. Chris Matthews is still upset over it. I have a feeling it is going to be the same this year. But, even if it is close, Romney will still win.

[formerlurker]

Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent) – which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August.  In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent).  Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate.  These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward  Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.

All of this data make clear that Romney has won the strong support of middle-class families and is leading the president on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot.  In fact, when respondents were asked who, Obama or Romney, would best handle a variety of issues, Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9 percent), foreign policy (+3 percent), spending (+15 percent), taxes (+7 percent), Medicare (+2 percent), and jobs (+10 percent).  Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Romney on was “standing up for the middle class” (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/09/24/politico_poll_romney_leads_on_almost_every_issue_but

[Lacarnut]

I do not believe these skewed polls. Even dumb asses like Karl Rove state that Obama is leading and when you have a worthless speaker of the House stating that Romney is in big trouble in Ohio because of low employment, I just do not get it. By that idiotic assessment, Romney should win CA and IL with their high unemployment rate. We know that is not going to happen so these stupid RINO's should STFU.

[Kyle Ricky]

I do not believe these skewed polls. Even dumb asses like Karl Rove state that Obama is leading and when you have a worthless speaker of the House stating that Romney is in big trouble in Ohio because of low employment, I just do not get it. By that idiotic assessment, Romney should win CA and IL with their high unemployment rate. We know that is not going to happen so these stupid RINO's should STFU.

I don't believe any of them either. But looking at it in a realistic stand point. If they are over sampling Dems by 10%+ and obama and Romney are tied? That does not look good for obama. With them over sampling like that, obama should have a 20+ point lead over Romney. The Dems are in for a rude awaking come November.

[Karin]

I heard about this site last night.  I'm super busy right now and haven't studied it, but it may be worthwhile looking at. 

http://unskewedpolls.com/

[Lacarnut]

How do I know that Romney is way ahead in the race. Let me count the ways:
1. The economy and the job picture is not what was promised by Obama with over 8% unemployment.
2. Gas prices are double what they were when he took office
3. We are still fighting two wars. He said the troops would be out in a year after he took office
4. Gitmo was supposed to be closed
5. His support of gay marriage has pissed off religious blacks.
6. 68% of the voters think we are headed in the wrong direction
7. Tens of thousand of students that graduated in the last 3 years are either unemployed or underemployed
8. The enthusiasm that Obama created in 2008 is far lower
9. Voters see him as a weak by the way the M.E. riots and our Ambassador death have been handled. He has thrown Israel under the bus
10. Workers are not optimistic about their jobs and future. Many think they will never be able to retire.

You add all those negatives up and Obama is dead meat. He will lose badly in Nov.
My advise to conservatives is let's quit with all this doom and gloom that the media along with RINO's like Krawhammer, Rove, Wills, etc are espousing. They got the candidate they wanted. They need to STFU if they do not have anything positive to say about Romney.  

[RobJohnson]

I pissed a few people off on facebook suggesting the polls are always going to be slanted towards the Dems due to the fact they are more likely to answer the home phone while the rest of us are at work....I also suggested they might as well conduct the polls as the Dems exit the Medicaid office for these "fair samples."  One facebook poster about had a heart attack...lol

I might of even suggested the Dems were afraid of working and will vote to make sure they don't have to. 

[DumbAss Tanker]

It's possible.  I have no faith in the polls, I think there are several reasons in play this year that make them totally unreliable, the two biggest being the turnout model used and the related problem of measuring voter enthusiasm.  I have run into exactly one 'Enthusiastic' Obama guy this year, and he was defensive about it and really struck me more as a heritage-Democrat anti-Romney guy (He was also a union guy on disability).  I haven't seen all that many bumper stickers for either one, on the Conservative side it's more because people don't want to draw fire and get their car keyed by some welfare leech, on the Dem side I get the feel they're just not all that into him anymore.

[Arsynic]

Look at how giddy the press is to report these heavily skewed polls.  Mike Huckabee was correct yesterday.  If these polls are so reliable, then why do the candidates spend tens of millions on internal polling? 

These polls all hinge on one huge ass assumption that doesn't gel with other facts: Democrat turnout will be higher than Republican turnout even though we know that blacks and young people won't vote in the numbers they did in 2008.  But if it fits the media narrative, they'll run with it.

[Kyle Ricky]

That is something else. They are banking on the turnout for obama being the same as it was in 2008. It isn't going to be near that.

[BlueStateSaint]

It's possible.  I have no faith in the polls, I think there are several reasons in play this year that make them totally unreliable, the two biggest being the turnout model used and the related problem of measuring voter enthusiasm.  I have run into exactly one 'Enthusiastic' Obama guy this year, and he was defensive about it and really struck me more as a heritage-Democrat anti-Romney guy (He was also a union guy on disability).  I haven't seen all that many bumper stickers for either one, on the Conservative side it's more because people don't want to draw fire and get their car keyed by some welfare leech, on the Dem side I get the feel they're just not all that into him anymore.

I have seen a few Obama stickers (the 2012 ones), but not many.  I'm in New York.  Upstate, to be sure, but it's still New York.

[JohnnyReb]

I have seen a few Obama stickers (the 2012 ones), but not many.  I'm in New York.  Upstate, to be sure, but it's still New York.

Except for one black democrat extreme moonbat, I haven't even seen any old Obama bumper stickers.

[thundley4]

I've seen several Obama/Biden yard signs, but all of them have been in front of union halls. (Saw 5 of them at union halls today)