What is wrong with FOX NEWS?

[BigTex]

All the time on Fox news I hear about the over sampling in polls from pretty much everyone on that network. Well today fox news released 3 battleground polls all of them over sampled democrats and showed big leads for Obama.

Virginia D +5 Obama +7
tied among independents, Virgil Goode polling at 2%

Florida D +5 Obama +5
Obama +2 among independents

Ohio D +6 Obama +7
Romney +4 among independents

[Kyle Ricky]

That is why I don't follow the polls. They are all fixed to make obama look like the winner.

[Karin]

That's the first thing I did, BigTex; I went to the details and jotted down the weighting. 

Ras has the battlegrounds neck-and-neck. 

[Texacon]

That's the first thing I did, BigTex; I went to the details and jotted down the weighting. 

Ras has the battlegrounds neck-and-neck. 

Rasmussen and Pew Research were the most accurate during the 2008 election cycle.  They were both spot on.  I don't trust the rest of them.

KC

[BigTex]

Rasmussen and Pew Research were the most accurate during the 2008 election cycle.  They were both spot on.  I don't trust the rest of them.

KC

Pew might have been right in 2008 but their poll yesterday had Obama +8 and one of the only national polls so far so show Obama over 50%

and their internals are 37% Dem, 33% Ind, 30% Rep

[Texacon]

I was going off this article from 2008;

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

KC

[pandric]

Rasmussen and Pew Research were the most accurate during the 2008 election cycle.  They were both spot on.  I don't trust the rest of them.

KC

So you trust Pew's Obama's 8% lead right now?

[txradioguy]

So you trust Pew's Obama's 8% lead right now?

Show me a poll that's not oversampled with Democrats and I might.

[Texacon]

So you trust Pew's Obama's 8% lead right now?

Do you trust Rasmussen's Romney's 1% lead right now?

KC

[Kyle Ricky]

Do you trust Rasmussen's Romney's 1% lead right now?

KC

Of course he doesn't. He is voting for obama so he would trust any poll that has obama in the lead, and not the ones that have him behind.

[Conservative_Sangfroid]

The polls aren't accurate especially in this case.  Some people are afraid of being labeled a racist if they say they don't want Obama so they just go along.

Keep in mind that the people conducting the polls are more than likely Obama voters and it is known that even the subtlest of verbal cues will create a "push poll" type of result.

[marv]

One factor that affects poll results is that they don't sample cell phones.

[obumazombie]

One factor that affects poll results is that they don't sample cell phones.

Thank goodness.

[Kyle Ricky]

The polls aren't accurate especially in this case.  Some people are afraid of being labeled a racist if they say they don't want Obama so they just go along.

Keep in mind that the people conducting the polls are more than likely Obama voters and it is known that even the subtlest of verbal cues will create a "push poll" type of result.

That is something I didn't think of. Good point.

[BigTex]

One factor that affects poll results is that they don't sample cell phones.

They do sample cell phones

specifically on these fox polls

1,009 Ohio likely voters (721 landline, 288 cell phone)
829 Florida likely voters (672 landline, 157 cell phone)
1,006 Virginia likely voters (670 landline, 336 cell phone)

[marv]

They do sample cell phones

specifically on these fox polls

1,009 Ohio likely voters (721 landline, 288 cell phone)
829 Florida likely voters (672 landline, 157 cell phone)
1,006 Virginia likely voters (670 landline, 336 cell phone)

But consider:

1. It's only one polll - FOX. That's not a bad thing, but what about all the others?
2. And consider the percentages between landline and cell.

I'm glad that they poll LIKELY voters, and not everybody or just registered.

[BigTex]

But consider:

1. It's only one polll - FOX. That's not a bad thing, but what about all the others?
2. And consider the percentages between landline and cell.

I'm glad that they poll LIKELY voters, and not everybody or just registered.

pretty much all the polls do cell phone sampling. The % changes depending on the polling agency, I saw a pew poll that was almost 50/50. Almost all the polls are based on likely voters the closer it gets to election.

[RobJohnson]

One factor that affects poll results is that they don't sample cell phones.

True in most cases!

I don't waste money on a land line, have not for years

[obumazombie]

True in most cases!

I don't waste money on a land line, have not for years

I do, but I got bundled. I didn't even get a puppy out of it.

[Cruise]

pretty much all the polls do cell phone sampling. The % changes depending on the polling agency, I saw a pew poll that was almost 50/50. Almost all the polls are based on likely voters the closer it gets to election.

Well if the Pew Poll does 50% cell phone sampling no wonder they get such overweighted samples.  Cell phone users are significantly more weighted to Obama (source: http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f36ec71e977 ). 

It certainly isn't the nice, hard-working people with jobs that are ready to take an unscreened cell phone call from anyone just because.

[pandric]

Well if the Pew Poll does 50% cell phone sampling no wonder they get such overweighted samples.  Cell phone users are significantly more weighted to Obama (source: http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f36ec71e977 ). 

It certainly isn't the nice, hard-working people with jobs that are ready to take an unscreened cell phone call from anyone just because.

Let's see. Out of the 40% of people contacted by Pew by cell phone, 20% had a cell phone only (no landline). The rest owned both cell phones and landlines. Is any of those statistics skewed? And if so, how much? http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/09-19-12%20Political%20release.pdf

[Lacarnut]

There are so few polled that the numbers can be skewed one way or the other. I think Romney is way ahead and it is going to be a blowout.