Obama Administration Crisis Performance Expectations - A Scenario

[Chris_]

                                    THE SCENARIO

Preface:

Shortly after 9/11/01, many liberal politicians and pundits decried the fact that the horrors of 9/11 did not occur under the administration of Bill Clinton, ostensibly robbing him and his party of their opportunity to demonstrate their national security capabilities, and their tough stance on worldwide Islamic terrorism.

Date and Time:

September 11, 2011, 8:30 AM

Place:

New York City/Northern New Jersey (halfway through the Holland Tunnel)

Event:

At the height of the morning rush hour, on the tenth anniversary of 9/11, a large delivery truck, loaded half with commercial explosives, approximating 20,000 pounds, and half with ANFO is detonated in the center of the Holland Tunnel, breaching the tunnel to the river, and collapsing the two adjacent railway tunnels both containing "PATH", and New Jersey Transit trains, packed with commuters.  The auto tunnel is also filled with cars, trucks, and passenger buses.  The death toll approaches 15,000 people, and the loss of the tunnel and the rail access from New Jersey cripples the economy of both the city, and the entire area.  It is estimated that it will require five to seven years for the tunnel system to be replaced.

The ensuing investigation reveals that the commercial explosives were produced at a government-owned manufacturing plant in Iran, and the ANFO was purchased in Egypt by Iranian intelligence operatives, and shipped to the port of Newark on an Egyptian flagged freighter, its crew and Captain were all Iranian citizens. carrying forged Egyptian passports. The timing and detonation devices were manufactured by another government-owned military equipment maker in Syria, and the remains of the truck driver included a Syrian passport.

Further investigation uncovered that the operation was financed by Hamas, and a group of Syrian-Americans were responsible for planning and providing support for the operation in the US.  Mossad had, one week previously, advised their contacts in the CIA that they had uncovered evidence of an operation directed toward the US that was being discussed by Palestinian leaders in Gaza, and that the US should treat this matter as serious and imminent.

What would president Obama do?



AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This scenario is entirely fictional and hypothetical, and designed to measure the reader's view of the condition of America's national security.  The author alone assumes responsibility for the content.  Results for academic purposes only.

doc

[Rick]

Eight views and Im the only one voting? Come on you know what he would do.

[docstew]

I selected strongly worded speech, at which time he would have plenty of opportunity to blame Bush, Israel, apologize for american mistakes and hand the case over to DOJ all in one fell swoop.

[Alpha Mare]

I chose the top five; his usual MO.

[JohnnyReb]

1-Wet his pants.

2-Have a drink.

3-Smoke a cigarette.

4-Call Bill Ayers.

5-Blame the TOTUS.

....in that order ...and then assign a czar to head a fact finding commision with an important sounding name to do nothing.

[Eupher]

In addition to the usual strongly worded speech from TOTUS, he'll blame both Israel and the Director of the CIA, fire the DCIA, whine to the UN, and sit back and continue to employ his socialist agenda.

He will NOT go on an apology tour. He's already caught enough heat for what he's done throughout his presidency and even Lord Zero knows to back off from that tactic.

In the same vein, he won't attack Bush either.

LZ is all about appearance, and he'll maximize the illusion of him doing things without actually doing anything. To go along with that, suspending relations with the countries involved (can't really do that with Hamas, can ya, Zero?) without actually severing them might be a Plan B when the outcry from the country reaches a pitch that even he can hear.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Firnings, sanctions, blame Bush, sure.  But there should be a "Nothing, really" option there...

Critique of the scenario:

Tunnel attack is certainly one that has been evaluated.  Generally well done, several nits to pick though:

- Death toll is probably on the high side, I expect it would be 5,000 or less, something on the order of 9/11 rather than a multiple of it.

- China and Russia might or might not block the sanctions, which would have little real effect anyway (Which is precisely why they might not block them).  They do have interests in Iran and would probably block that, I'm not so sure they give a rat's ass about Syria or the Palis. 

- We wouldn't include Egypt in the attempt since their national government is not demonstrably involved in that scenario and no particular friend of the Islamists itself in the real world.  Plus there are many less suspicious sources to get the ammonium nitrate than bringing it in from an Islamic nation in an Islamic-nation-flagged ship, the oddity of that particular bulk commodity transaction considering global prices and sources would probably set off warning bells at Customs.

[vesta111]

One has to figure that he and family will be in the same position Bush was in on 9/11-------The SS will spirit him, family and dog, away to a cave somewhere until all appears safe.

It will take at least 25 years or more to find out most of the information you gave us as to how, when, and where this came about.  If ever.

After a couple weeks the Prez. will head back to Washington and frantically help with the biggest cover-up of the events the world has yet to see.

He will have EXPERTS in the world of Science giving press reports that this occurrence was a natural disaster caused by an earthquake that hit the aging tunnel systems. World renown scientists will back up the story.  The few that refuse to go along will be blackmailed into keeping quiet.

He will surprise the world by giving Israel mucho dollars for defence--dependent on them keeping their mouth shut about their warning.

There will be a surprising number of suicides with in the circle of the CIA that knew about the warning, a few airplanes carrying people in the know will go down.

The internet will be flooded with the pundents that will insist that the people that are suspicious of the Earthquake theory are Loony Tunes.

Russia will be laughing its Ass off and will use their information to get concessions that will boggle the mind of the public around the world. Mexico and half of South America will hook up with Russia and place us in a situation worse then anything we have ever seen.

Obama will be reelected for a second term and we, the general public will have no choice but to except that life has changed for the worse .








 

[Doc]

Critique of the scenario:

Tunnel attack is certainly one that has been evaluated.  Generally well done, several nits to pick though:

- Death toll is probably on the high side, I expect it would be 5,000 or less, something on the order of 9/11 rather than a multiple of it.

Actually in this scenario, the greatest loss of life would be on the trains.  At 8:30 AM, there will be at least 4 PATH trains, and three to four NJT trains stopped "nose to tail" in the tunnels waiting to switch onto platforms at Penn Station  The rail tunnels are that busy from about 7:45 AM, until at least 9:00 AM every work day.  One must remember that two million commuters come into Manhattan every day, most of them by rail.

Further, the AMTRAK "Metroliner" for Washington DC, departs Penn Station at 8:20 (or at least it used to) on the outbound track, with capacity for another 1,500 passengers, and it is usually full at that hour..........each of these incoming commuter trains during rush hour have a capacity for 1,800 passengers.

Granted, the timing would have to be perfect, but my data falls well within the realm of possibility.

doc

[Hawkgirl]

This scenario is all too plausible.  The date you chose also sent shivers up my spine.

I chose: strong worded speech, apology tour, fire CIA director, blame Bush and hand over to Attorney General.

In other words, the culprits will have no repurcussions.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Understood, doc, but even when breached, the tunnels wouldn't be instantly full, harsh as it is to say, the train wreckage itself would slow the fill; the train tunnels are a much tighter fit to their traffic than the road tunnel, which would fill so fast that most would die.  I've been in the Holland and Lincoln during peak traffic hours, even if the breach was behind you, you'd have very little chance of getting out.