CONTEST: How many seats will the GOP control in the House and Senate next year?

[GOP Congress]

I have been following the current congressional races for the past year now. The Tea Party movement, which consists of conservatives and former Libertarians is now in full swing. After today, I am going to make a sweeping prediction. Make note.

I will break down many of the races once my other site is back up, but for now, I'll give you the short answer.

CURRENT Congress breakdown

House (435 members): Democrats control 255 seats, Republicans control 177 seats, with 3 vacancies.
Senate (100 members): Democrats control 59 seats (with 2 independents), Republicans control 41 seats.

*** MY PREDICTION ***

First and foremost: Forget ANYTHING that the mainstream media and their sycophants spew out how the tea party will screw up the Republicans. I have been calling campaign after campaign (Magic Jack, love ya!!), so far over 200 of them, and the news I get from the campaigns pretty much match up the primary results so far. So I am going with metrics that the mainstream media refuses to deal with.

First, the House:

The house is going to swing at LEAST 80 votes. That should be a safe bet. But I will go on a limb, and based upon how the candidates will run the general elections, in short basically run them as REAGAN REPUBLICANS and NOT as McCain sycophants, I predict 92 seats gained. Yes, 92 seats. There is a possibility we may hit the magic 100 seats that some politicos are predicting, but I"m being a bit more realistic in some of the swing districts.

Now the Senate:

This is actually a GREATER swing, because it will not just entail a GOP gain, but the QUALITY of GOP candidates will be far more conservative than in recent history.

I predict a 16-seat gain in the Senate...with an outside chance... faint, but possible... of actually pulling an EPIC turnaround, and actually getting a 19 vote swing. The numbers are a bit optimistic for that to happen, but then again...that would give the GOP the magic number of 60.

At the end of the day, the new lineup of MY PREDICTIONS:

House: Republicans control the House with 259 seats, Democrats 166. I will give the Dems the vacancies for now.
Senate: Republicans control the Senate with 57 seats, Democrats 42, with 1 indy (Lieberman). (Depends on Sanders' decision as well)

That is my prediction on this date.

[The Village Idiot]

227 in House
and 49 in Senate

[formerlurker]

The Tea Party movement, which consists of conservatives and former Libertarians is now in full swing.

The tea party movement also consists of independents and democrats - it represents the entire political spectrum (here in MA it is mostly independents).

Do not look at the mid-term cycle elections as a validation of the Republican party.   It is instead the removal of incumbents, or those who are contributing to big government and just not listening to the voice of the people.    Republican incumbents are equally vulnerable in the upcoming election.   

It will be interesting for sure. 

[bkg]

The tea party movement also consists of independents and democrats - it represents the entire political spectrum (here in MA it is mostly independents).

Do not look at the mid-term cycle elections as a validation of the Republican party.   It is instead the removal of incumbents, or those who are contributing to big government and just not listening to the voice of the people.    Republican incumbents are equally vulnerable in the upcoming election.   

It will be interesting for sure. 

I was going to call BS on that comment as well.

The downfall of the TEA party is going to be attaching it to another "party" label. Attach it to the GOP, TEA party is as good as dead. TEA party is TEA party - leave the rest out of it.

TEA party has a large tent now, IMHO because they don't align themselves to DNC/GOP.

AS to the original question... we won't see a swing nearly as big as some people are claiming... Over confidence can be a killer.

[DumbAss Tanker]

November is still a long way off, and fortunes can turn as unpredictably as a Summer breeze in hill country, but at this point it appears to me the GOP has perhaps a 75% chance of winning a majority in the House but probably the inverse 25% of gaining a clean majority in the Senate.  I regard the chance of getting to 60 there as merely technical, not real.  Even 60 Senate seats would not be enough to override a veto, of course, so passing repeal legislation for any Obaminations that have passed like HCR does not look feasible until early 2013.   

[BlueStateSaint]

November is still a long way off, and fortunes can turn as unpredictably as a Summer breeze in hill country, but at this point it appears to me the GOP has perhaps a 75% chance of winning a majority in the House but probably the inverse 25% of gaining a clean majority in the Senate.  I regard the chance of getting to 60 there as merely technical, not real.  Even 60 Senate seats would not be enough to override a veto, of course, so passing repeal legislation for any Obaminations that have passed like HCR does not look feasible until early 2013.  

I believe that the November elections are 146 days off.  That is an eternity in politics.  

I've heard that the Republicans stand a better chance of taking back the Senate rather than the House.  In any event, I really think that the Tea Party is going to put a lot of good people in those seats.  They'll be on the Republican line, though I've heard of one Dem who was running in NJ--I want to say the 9th Congressional District--to get the Dem Party line for the general election.  I don't know how he did.

I've said for a while, and I continue to say, that my over/unders for Republican wins in the Senate and House, respectively, are 10.5/114.5, and I'm taking the "over" on both.  Yes, it is true that the Republicans won't be able to overrride any vetoes (yes, that is a grammatically correct spelling, DUmmy lurkers) for two years, but they can attach a repeal of the HC"R" to any and every bill that goes through the Congress.

[The Village Idiot]

we might even get a bare majority of the Senate but Snowe, Collins and Fiorina would confirm whatever leftist judge and treaties Obama sends their way.

[Lord Undies]

house=233
senate=50*

*which means the socialist will still have their votes.

[GOP Congress]

Personally, I have always felt that the socialist wing of the democratic party is actually an anomaly. We have always been a conservative country; after all, far more family units live like conservatives than liberals, and the media cannot keep putting out the IngSoc message day in and day out.

I sense a huge shift will result in the two major opposing parties to migrate toward that of a conservative vs libertarian (not liberal) paradigm.

[BohemianMonk]

I would say a definite majority will go to the GOP or the Tea Party. I think it could wind up being a super majority November is several months away yet. And the way Oboy is pushing stuff down our throat and his handling of the gulf spill. Well I think that is gonna sway lots of independent voters. If he tries to do cap and trade or immigration before the election it will definitely be a super majority. I am hoping Americans wake up here soon before its too late.

[BlueStateSaint]

I would say a definite majority will go to the GOP or the Tea Party. I think it could wind up being a super majority November is several months away yet. And the way Oboy is pushing stuff down our throat and his handling of the gulf spill. Well I think that is gonna sway lots of independent voters. If he tries to do cap and trade or immigration before the election it will definitely be a super majority. I am hoping Americans wake up here soon before its too late.

It mathmatically can't be a supermajority.  If the Republicans won every Dem seat without losing any of their own, they'd have 59, IIRC.

After the 2012 elections, well, then . . .    But Mitch Daniels, with some comments about a week ago, pretty much took himself out of the running for the nomination.

[GOP Congress]

It mathmatically can't be a supermajority.  If the Republicans won every Dem seat without losing any of their own, they'd have 59, IIRC.

Actually, the republicans have 41 seats. You may have forgotten Colonel Brown's victory in Massachusetts. 19 would give them 60.

However, I agree that is, at this point, fantasyland. Realistically, I can see 13 probable, with 3 more a tossup to slight dem advantage, that can be our advantage by November. This will give the GOP 54-57 probable.

In a super breakdown of the dems (even more than what's been going on), as well as a complete repudiation of the socialist media by the current moderates, there is an outside chance of hitting 60. I'm not one for odds, but if I had a hundred dollars to bet, if someone would give me 500-1 (for a 50,000 win) I'd take the bet.

Yes, Olympia Snowe and Scott Brown are going to be Obama's ONLY friends in the senate when this is over and done with. The aggregate of the resultant GOP senator-elects' political position will move from Rino-ville to near-Limbaugh-ville, isolating all but a small handful.

More probably, centist Dems will win those tossup spots.

[bkg]

Yes, Olympia Snowe and Scott Brown are going to be Obama's ONLY friends in the senate when this is over and done with. The aggregate of the resultant GOP senator-elects' political position will move from Rino-ville to near-Limbaugh-ville, isolating all but a small handful.

Do you think Brown has moved completely left? I havne't followed him much after his first few votes.

[GOP Congress]

Actually, I haven't reconciled his votes as of yet, and I haven't been able to get a reliable metric from VoteSmart yet. But in general, he is not someone who is on a scale like DeMint.

Frankly, my guesses on his "new friends" are not based on anything that I've ever seen before in politics. I don't think that we will ever have as naked and lonely a man/woman as Obama will be after the next election, based on having absolutely NO EXECUTIVE EXPERIENCE of ANY type in his life, and I've never seen anyone who runs an executive position with consensus as Obama, at either the corporate, mid-level business, or lemonade stand level and be successful. So he WILL have to have SOME friends who have SOME say in policy at any level. If the GOP takes both houses of Congress, especially with significant amounts, then the dems won't help him there.

And even if he rewards a lot of retiring/losing Congressional democrats with some sort of position, the next Congress will be scrutinizing EVERY ONE of these assignments, and have the legislative power to suppress their effectiveness in the Obama Administration. I foresee a lot of legal activity at the Federal circuit and appellate levels.

[Lacarnut]

Repubs will pick up 100 or more House seats and 8 to 10 senate seats. It is going to be a blowout. Independents, who by the way determine elections, are pissed at incumbents (D's & R's) and they are going to vote to boot out many of them.

[bkg]

Repubs will pick up 100 or more House seats and 8 to 10 senate seats. It is going to be a blowout. Independents, who by the way determine elections, are pissed at incumbents (D's & R's) and they are going to vote to boot out many of them.

Your last statement begs an interesting question... How many seats will the (I) gain?

[rich_t]

Your last statement begs an interesting question... How many seats will the (I) gain?

The Indies may still vote for an R or a D, they are just not voting for incumbants in a lot of primaries.

[Lacarnut]

Your last statement begs an interesting question... How many seats will the (I) gain?

Could be a few but it all depends on whether Repubs put up candidates that conform to their views. If not, then it might be a 3 way royal battle. What many conservatives and liberals loose sight of is that the Independent vote determines the outcome of most political races. Obama and the democrats have lost that advantage they held in 2008.

[GOP Congress]

In elections past, the "Independent" voter has been interchanged with "Moderate". This election cycle will definitely create far less "middlers," with most new GOP candidates who win actually toeing a more conservative, if not libertarian line.

To that end, I don't expect to see a lot of independents have any significant effect on the races this year. It is interesting to note how the democrats seem to love republicans who trend moderate, but they throw democrats under the bus for parroting the virtually identical political position, just because of the difference between R and D. The reason, of course, is that they are hoping for the vote split phenomenon in the general election. This is where the there are two prominent republicans, usually the conservative, and (ostensibly) more popular moderate republican, who will "split" their general election votes, thereby giving the democrat the plurality. Indeed, that is there only reasonable chance, and I will expect to see a lot of behind-the-scenes democratic support of republican moderates this cycle.

But for the most part, people ARE tired of this bull this cycle. So while the purpose of this thread was to assess the amount of seats will be won, the more pertinent question will be "What is the conservative value of each republican who wins office in November?" In general, the more conservative "across the board" membership of the Republican Party, the better it will be for governance in general. In other words, straddling the fence of moderation ala John McCain will be less effective.