« on: September 07, 2009, 04:49:36 PM »
Charlie Cook is sounding the alarm for Democrats. Will any of them listen?
Bleeding Independents
Obama's agenda has fanned fears that government is expanding too far, too fast.
by Charlie Cook
Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009
Listening to two briefings -- one by a Democratic pollster who had just conducted a survey for a group favoring health care reform, the other by a Republican pollster more skeptical of the reform plans -- I felt as if I were hearing a pair of reports by the National Transportation Safety Board on the same plane crash. But in sorting through the problems facing President Obama and congressional Democrats, focusing too narrowly on their disastrous handling of health care would be a mistake.
Obama and Capitol Hill leaders don't need to worry too much about their modest drop in support from Democratic voters or the predictable drop on the Republican side. But top Democrats should be very frightened about the sharp drop in support among independents, because it could ultimately threaten their party's hold on the House and shrink their majority in the Senate.
Independent voters -- fired up by the war in Iraq and Republican scandals -- gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress in 2006. Two years later, independents upset with President Bush and eager to give his party another kick expanded the Democratic majorities on the Hill. Late in the campaign, the economic downturn, together with an influx of young people and minorities enthusiastic about Obama, created a wave that left the GOP in ruins.
That was then; this is now. For the seven weeks from mid-April through the first week of June, Obama's weekly Gallup Poll approval rating among independents ran in the 60-to-70 percent range. But in four of the past five weeks, it has been only in the mid-to-high 40s. Meanwhile, Democrats and liberals seem lethargic even though Republicans and conservatives are spitting nails and can't wait to vote.
What's going on? While political analysts were fixated on last fall's campaign and on Obama's victory, inauguration, and first 100 days in office, two other dynamics were developing. First, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression scared many voters, making them worry about their future and that of their children and grandchildren. And the federal government's failure to prevent that calamity fundamentally undermined the public's already low confidence in government's ability to solve problems. Washington's unprecedented levels of intervention -- at the end of Bush's presidency and the start of Obama's -- into the private sector further unnerved the skittish public. People didn't mind that the head of General Motors got fired. What frightened folks was that it was the federal government doing the firing.
Oh, this is good.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20090905_1231.php
Logged
"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of Liberty." - Thomas Jefferson
"All you have to do is look straight and see the road, and when you see it, don't sit looking at it - walk!" -Ayn Rand
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"These anti-gun fools are more dangerous to liberty than street criminals or foreign spies."--Theodore Haas, Dachau Survivor
Chase her.
Chase her even when she's yours.
That's the only way you'll be assured to never lose her.
