primitives upset, all bent out of shape, about poll; whistle past graveyard

[franksolich]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8556724

Oh my.

A Brit wannabe primitive:

anneboleyn  (704 posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 02:48 AM
Original message
 
Please help me disregard today's Rasmussen poll, which shows Obama approval at 30%. WTF???

As reported tonight on CNN the daily presidential Rasmussen poll shows that only 30% of "likely voters" "strongly approve" of the president's performance -- now more voters disapprove than approve.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...

I know that polls are unpredictable, mercurial, and depend greatly on just who was sampled this particular day. Rasmussen leans right (so I've been told) so I am wondering if these numbers are just wildly skewed? Or is all of this due to the Gates incident, some sort of "angry (white) voter" syndrome?

I simply couldn't believe this news because it doesn't personally fit with anyone we know -- though a few neighbors were vaguely "upset" by the Gates/Crowley incident -- but such a sharp drop seems very hard to believe. Rasmussen, I am irked.

My husband and I are most concerned about health care and such numbers mean that health care reform may get undermined even further.

Please help me understand why this poll should be binned, as our British friends would say.

cherokeeprogressive  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 02:50 AM
Response to Original message
 
1. You don't need help. You just need to understand that Rasmussen is anti-Obama from the get-go.

MADem  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 02:51 AM
Response to Original message
 
2. Rasmussen is about as "fair" to Obama as Faux and Politico are.

Let me help you understand with three concise words: Consider The Source.

anneboleyn  (704 posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 03:03 AM
Response to Reply #2

7. If I remember correctly -- which I may not -- Rasmussen had Obama down before the Nov. election

And this says everything. But thanks for the reminder. It helps.

MADem  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 03:30 AM
Response to Reply #7
 
8. Rasmussen is partisan. They always have been. 

They always gave Bush an eight to twelve point bump.

quiller4 (797 posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #7
 
17. You are right. If Rasmussen polling had been accurate, McCain would be preident today.

tritsofme (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 09:45 AM
Response to Reply #7
 
19. Nope, final 2008 poll from Rasmussen had Obama leading 52%-46%

Not bad for such a hack.

nocalgirl (10 posts)     Tue Jul-28-09 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #19
 
20. Truth be told Rasmussen unfortunately predicted the outcome of the election more accurately than any other poll done immediately before the election, with the spread as you state above. Hmmm... this may indicate they were right on target at least once! What if this really is an accurate measure? What would we do about it?

tritsofme (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #20

23. He was spot on in 2004 as well. 

But it is just a poll, no reason to attach an inordinate amount of significance to it.

Rasmussen is polling likely voters, but the trend across all polls is declining approval, Obama's numbers are simply coming back down to earth.

Clinton and Reagan spent a good amount of time in their first terms under 50% approval, it's not a death sentence, and it's probably inevitable given the state of the economy.

mwb970  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 06:44 AM
Response to Reply #2
 
13. There's a reason why wingnuts cite Rasmussen and only Rasmussen.

Rasmussen polls are consistently outliers in the rightie-wacko direction, so they are the only source ever cited on Fox "News" or the other wingnut sewers.

saltpoint  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 02:53 AM
Response to Original message

3. I wouldn't worry about it. 

Obama is likely to go without challenge -- or without serious challenge -- for re-nomination in 2012; and likely to crush whatever fool the Pukes send up for the top of their ticket.

Oh my.  franksolich oftentimes goes out on a limb, but never out on twig.

Tiggeroshii  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 02:53 AM
Response to Original message
 
4. Actually he's at a 49% approval rating

Not 30%. They're kinda spinning their poll a little with half truths, but if you read on they give you the rest of the story.

anneboleyn  (704 posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #4
 
6. Yes, thanks -- I read through the write-up more closely and find the whole thing very misleading

Of course the "30%" number was being touted but the actual number is rather different. I still don't like the dip into negative but knowing that Rasmussen is the source does help. I am sure that every disgruntled voter possible was located for the purposes of polling.

Tiggeroshii  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 04:08 AM
Response to Reply #6
 
10. I personally think it was a relatively accurate poll.

His approval has been dipping among his base(for reasons including but not limited to gitmo). And he hasn't yet made headway into Universal healthcare and backed away from his lgbt promises. So there is legitimate reason for a lot of his base to start disapproving of him, and like always the wingnuts will do all they can to discredit him. so that's what i think going on anyways. Ras is certainly attempting to use itself as a propoganda piece of some kind by representing the numbers as they did, but it would defintiely not surprise me if Obama's polls started going slightly negative...

pnwmom  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 03:00 AM
Response to Original message
 
5. That's NOT his approval rating. It's the "strongly approve" number, which is always lower than total approval.

Grinchie (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 04:24 AM
Response to Original message
 
11. No, it's the fallout from Appointing Michael Taylor to the USDA

And allowing Clear Cut logging in the Tongass Wilderness.

Obama has sold his soul to the DLC and th.e Corporatists, and people are finally waking up to Clinton part 2.

After what Obama has done to install DLC operatives and continue the status quo with the Fed and the Big Banks, I don't expect anything except more of the same from this administration unless the people actually get off their asses and demand that the Government and the Corporation puppet masters are held accountable.

JTFrog (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 04:27 AM
Response to Original message
 
12. When you oversample Republican identifiers by 50%, those are the results you'll get.

davidpdx (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 07:45 AM
Response to Original message
 
14. What is that 30% of the fringe right?

The poll is ****ed up. My advice ignore it.

Mass (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 07:52 AM
Response to Original message
 
15. Because this is not what it says. 

Interesting though how Rasmussen changed the numbers. Normally, they add strongly approve and somewhat approve to get a score.

My guess is that the numbers did not go down fast enough.

This said, Rasmussen has always had numbers that meant very little.

high density  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 07:53 AM
Response to Original message
 
16. likely voters?? umm it's July 2009

Just laugh and walk away.

Jennicut  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
 
18. "strongly approve"...who else does that in their polls? Enough said.

I laugh at Rasmussen all the time.

Cali_Democrat  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #18
 
24. Yep. It's one of the strangest polls I've ever seen.

I wonder what Bush's approval would have been if he was held to the same standard.

Jennicut  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #24
 
27. LOL. It would have been bad, for sure.

I can never make sense of that assbackward poll.

endarkenment (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
 
21. OK I just helped us all ignore it.

Teaser  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
 
22. You're an adult with more or less free will. Choose to ignore it.

you don't need our help.

SemiCharmedQuark  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
 
25. "likely voters" do not include young voters, per Rasmussen. 

So this is a poll of mostly older voters, who by and large tend to be more conservative than the "average" person.

karynnj  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
 
26. The clue might be the word "strongly"

Rassmussen uses just "strongly" agree and disagree in his index - this is likely based on a survey that has strongly agree, agree .... Still the chart on the link is going in the wrong directions. It might be a migration of people from strongly agree to agree, which I would not be surprised with from what I see here. This seems likely as there has been no comparably steep downward trend in other polls. I suspect that part of it is also a shift of republicans from disagree to sharply disagree.

CJCRANE  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
 
28. Incorrect and misleading title => pointless OP

backscatter712  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 11:13 AM
Response to Original message
 
29. That's Assmussen for you.

They're nothing but right-wing shills - they ask loaded questions, they skew their numbers, so don't believe anything they say.

Beacool  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
 
30. In the primaries, when I was watching polls like a hawk,

I found Rasmussen to be pretty accurate despite their right leaning bent.

Sheepshank (227 posts)     Tue Jul-28-09 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
 
31. Skewed results

Strongly agree, somewhat agree should be counted together, but it makes for bigger more Rep self-satisfying news to whop the Pres and Libs with a wet fish. Chances are (based on no scientific evidence whatsoever) most people have one gripe or another with the Pres, therefore will claim to only somewhat agree.

Oh my.  Trouble in paradise.

[GOBUCKS]

I've polled a 100% sample of the people here, and he is still running unchanged at 0%.

[jukin]

Clearly, the racist Rasmussen polled stupidly.

[tuolumnejim]

nocalgirl (10 posts)     Tue Jul-28-09 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #19
 
20. Truth be told Rasmussen unfortunately predicted the outcome of the election more accurately than any other poll done immediately before the election, with the spread as you state above. Hmmm... this may indicate they were right on target at least once! What if this really is an accurate measure? What would we do about it?

My suggestion would be. 

[miskie]

Rasmussen has Obama at 49%. The RCP average is currently 54.7%. Rasmussen isn't that far off the mark, if they are at all.

[Karin]

And, Zogby and Gallup are saying the same things Ras is.  I know how they feel though.  In the runup to the election, I was checking Ras, and saying "OMG how can this possibly be?"  Alas, it was so. 

[crockspot]

What a bunch of bullshit artists. You could take most of those posts, and simply replace the name of the pollster with whichever poll has their guy down the most at any given time. Doesn't matter if it is Gallup, Zogby, Rasmussen, Pew.. whoever. If that pollster is not reporting what they want, they have "always been a pro Bush outlier."

I suspect annbolyn is a mole too. Nobody is that willfully gullible.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Jennicut  (1000+ posts)        Tue Jul-28-09 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
 
18. "strongly approve"...who else does that in their polls? Enough said.

I laugh at Rasmussen all the time.

Laugh while you can, monkey-girl.

[Carl]

Rasmussen is the most accurate of all the polls...they hate it because it doesn`t skew left and reinforce what they "want" to believe.

[Vagabond]

MADem  (1000+ posts)      Tue Jul-28-09 02:51 AM
Response to Original message
 
2. Rasmussen is about as "fair" to Obama as Faux and Politico are.

Let me help you understand with three concise words: Consider The Source.

This primitive needs to put down the glue.  Politico was set up for the sole original purpose of supporting Obama.  That they are reporters and therefore as trustworthy as a pack of scorpions is something else entirely.

[Karin]

FYI As of today, Ras has king zero maintaining his negative 10 index.  Generic congressional question has GOP at 42 vs Dems at 39. 

Sample population targeted at 39% Dem, 32.5% Repub, and 28.5% Ind.