Gregoire, Rossi in dead heat in poll (WA election theft, the sequel)

[Wretched Excess]

Gregoire, Rossi in dead heat in poll

One feature of the four-year political struggle between Gov. Chris Gregoire and almost-Gov. Dino Rossi has been an abundance of suspect and self-serving opinion surveys.

At last comes a poll, albeit with a few weeks under its belt, that surprised its takers.

Washington Conservation Voters hired Grove Insight, Portland's top pollster, in November to see if Evergreen State voters are ready to walk the talk against global warming.

WCV threw in a series of questions that were NOT mentioned in the Jan. 22 news release announcing poll results. The key finding: The Gregoire-Rossi race is dead even.

In a trial heat, the incumbent Democrat had 43 percent, her Republican challenger received 41 percent, and 16 percent were undecided. The poll was based on interviews with 588 likely general election voters. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The poll revealed a political landscape rather like a World War I battlefield. People are dug into their partisan positions. Rossi gets 89 percent backing from Republicans. Gregoire runs a slightly less impressive 76 percent among fellow Democrats.

Gregoire runs well in central Puget Sound areas -- surprise! -- and Rossi is popular in Eastern Washington. The Republican does score well in rural Pierce County.

Among independent voters, Rossi gets 41 percent and Gregoire 30 percent, with 29 percent undecided.

Such are the figures, to be followed by the caveats.

Gregoire has been an aggressive, upfront presence since the poll was taken. She has advocated setting aside $1.5 billion from the state's surplus as a buffer against economic hard times. She has vowed that the Alaskan Way Viaduct will come down. She has signed legislation to build new ferries.

Gregoire has dealt with a natural disaster (accelerated by flood plain development and bad forestry) in Lewis County, one place in Western Washington almost certain to vote against her.

She has completed a fall-winter office housecleaning. The governor has put new aides in place and -- finally -- has a pro-active communications shop. Gregoire received the greatest ovation of her life at a giant KeyArena rally, when she endorsed Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., for president.

Snowstorms, floods and ceremonial appearances -- "Gregoire to Meet Harlem Globetrotters" -- allow an incumbent to bound around the state like a hare. The challenger is often cast in the roll of a tortoise.

Rossi is, however, a hustling tortoise. He has taken in $2.2 million since announcing for governor in late October. Gregoire has raised $4.6 million, but has spent significantly.

And it's Lincoln Day dinner season, when Republicans gather county-by-county across the state.

Rossi has a political party to motivate, after a 2006 election that saw Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., sweep to re-election and Democrats expand legislative gains in Puget Sound suburbs.

Low voter turnout four years ago in Republican- leaning counties was a major factor in the gubernatorial election's final outcome. A viable presidential candidacy by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., even with lingering right-wing grumpiness, would give a big boost to Rossi.

The Washington Conservation Voters poll produced a few wrinkles.

Gregoire enjoys a 59 percent personal approval rating compared with 41 percent for Rossi. Each contender registered 33 percent personal disapproval.

When it came to job approval, however, the electorate was split down the middle with 49 percent approving of Gregoire's performance in office, and 48 percent disapproving.

The governor has endured personal attacks from the mouth-breather wing of the Republican Party. They've nicknamed her "Queen Christine." The state GOP sent out a crude fundraising mailing that paired Gregoire with Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, the Democratic presidential hopeful whom Republicans love to hate. Nasty e-mails pour forth from the party.

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this one's for you, Lauri.  what's up with the rematch?  and this guy is kind of a moonbat, by the way.

[Lauri]

yeah, Joel Connelly of the almost dead Seattle PI 'newspaper' is a full fledged moonbat... i've sparred with him in emails before. he calls us 'mouthbreathers' then gets all upset when we call the governor "Queen Christine" ..


I think Rossi has a better than 50% shot this time... Queen Christine hasnt been all that visible in her past four years, although she's spent a TON of money.

Coming out publically for the Barackstar!! is going to, hopefully, hurt her shaky credibility when he gets more and more attention for being an empty suit... much like she is.

And thanks for thinking of me!