Oh, No...DUmp starting to figure it out: Stress Tests and Timmy G...

[dutch508]

Pale Blue Dot  (1000+ posts)        Mon Apr-20-09 02:48 PM
Original message http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5497073

Have the Stress Test results been leaked? If so, they're very, very bad.
 Karl Denninger thinks they may have been:

Last night Hal Turner (who has a reputation that is best described as heavily-adorned with Reynolds Wrap) published this:

The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

....

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

He then goes on to list things that we know to be factual, including derivatives exposure (mostly in interest-rate swaps and similar.)

This appears to have led to Treasury issuing the following statement this morning:

The U.S. Treasury Department has not yet received the results of "stress tests'' on the health of the nation's 19 top banks, spokesman Andrew Williams said Monday, after a blog said it had obtained the test results and some U.S. bank shares moved lower.

That's a lie.

How do we know its a lie?

Because of this from April 10th:

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.

The Fed wants to ensure that the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month. Such a scenario might push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results in an orderly fashion later this month.

How can you be ordered not to release something you don't have?

Since that was published on the 10th of April, we therefore know that the results exist and Treasury, the banks involved and The Fed have them, as The Fed was concerned that some banks might try to use them (perhaps in a misleading fashion) during their first quarter conference calls and earnings releases.

Sorry guys, but whether Hal Turner has the real results or not is no longer material. What's material is the claim that Treasury doesn't have them, since they told the banks on the 10th not to release them, and you can't release what you don't have.

The problem with lying is that eventually you forget your previous lies and thus get caught when you contradict yourself.

My response to Treasury's claim is best expressed thus:

STOP LYING TIMMY; THE MARKET IS REACTING VERY, VERY BADLY TO THIS OBVIOUS AND TRANSPARENT LOAD OF CRAP YOU ARE TRYING TO FOIST OFF ON IT THIS MORNING.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/972-Treasur...
 

Sounds like the DUmp is starting to figure out the barry administration is alot of ghanja smoke and cracked mirrors.

[USA4ME]

maddezmom

8. locking

Hal Turner is not a reliable source.

Oops!

.

[The Village Idiot]

I think we are about to see blatant nationalization of these banks

[JohnnyReb]

I think we are about to see blatant nationalization of these banks

Wasn't that plan "A" anyway?

....and plan "B" was to nationlize the banks.

...and if plan "B" didn't work, there was always plan "C" to nationlize the banks.

[Lacarnut]

This leak or rumor might have been the reason that the market and financials tanked today.

[miskie]

This leak or rumor might have been the reason that the market and financials tanked today.

Hope!!! Change!!!!  ---  \o/   ---  YAY!!!!!111!!!111