Early voting in California - Obama, not so much

[Schadenfreude]

Stunning results in early voting in California. Smile redstaters

California has begun early voting already as well as mail-in balloting. The number of people who have gone in to vote in person has been extensive. The results so far prove what we had always suspected. The polls are being proven as totally unreliable. Although the results of early balloting have not been disclosed,of course,how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted has been revealed.

The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !
If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama,then the race is incredibly close. I'm sure that Obama will eventually win in California,but if he is struggling here after he pushed so hard for early voting,then he will lose the election ! Everybody thought he would win California in a landslide,but so far anyway,it's very tight. That means that in the less liberal states he is in real trouble.

Ignore the pundits. Forget the polls. Get out there and vote for John McCain. The results in California show the wisdom of Yogi Berra who said, "It's not over until it's over."

It's all going to boil down to turn out.

Link

[bijou]

How has this happened? Are Republicans more likely to vote early or absentee in California? Because although I am somewhat nervous of an Obama win I do think that he will win for all sorts of reasons (and yes I know it is none of my business really!  ) I am stunned that the early voting both in California and in Colorado has been so close in terms of the registrations of the voters.

[franksolich]

How has this happened? Are Republicans more likely to vote early or absentee in California? Because although I am somewhat nervous of an Obama win I do think that he will win for all sorts of reasons (and yes I know it is none of my business really!  ) I am stunned that the early voting both in California and in Colorado has been so close in terms of the registrations of the voters.

It's difficult to tell, but from decades of watching elections and how people behave, to me, it seems Republicans are LESS likely to vote early or absentee.  At least in this part of the country, and from what I noticed while living in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

[Chris]

I think things may have changed since 2000.  Early voting has been pushed more and more, and has been a benefit to me personally -- I missed voting in 2000 because I had to work (North Carolina voted for Bush).

Since I moved back to TN in 2001, I have never missed an opportunity to vote because of my personal schedule.

[franksolich]

I've already voted, frank.

But remember, I said "less" likely.

What bothers me about this is that if you lived in a blue state run by a political machine and did that, you just gave the corrupt bosses several days to play around wilth your vote, possibly even to change it.

This is why I think everybody should be required to vote only at the same time (as nearly as possible), say, from 8:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. central time, 7:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. mountain time, on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November.

It gives the corrupt party bosses less of a "window of opportunity" to cheat.

[RightCoast]

I've already voted, frank.

Commie!

[Traveshamockery]

I've already voted.  I live in Texas.  I have noticed that Obama is encouraging everyone to vote early (he forgot the "vote often" part).  Could it be because he's afraid of something coming out in these last ten days? 

[djones520]

All it says is registered Democrats and Republicans.  None of these include Independants.  I'd be willing to wager that Independants are going to favor McCain a bit more then Obama.