ABC News Poll : Obama +9 (VERY flawed internals)

[Wretched Excess]

I haven't seen a poll with this many slanted questions in it for a long time, but I didn't have to
read the internals much further than this:

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone
Sept. 19-22, 2008, among a random sample of 1,082 adults, including an oversample of
African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total
of 163 black respondents. Results among the 916 registered voters surveyed have a 3-
point error margin; among the 780 likely voters, 3.5-points.

first of all, the poll was conducted over a weekend, but then 20% of the sample was african
americans . . . I am sure this poll will be all over the news declaring mccain dead and buried.

Poll: Economic Discontent Boosts Barack Obama Over John McCain
Democrat Takes 52-43 Lead Among Likely Voters, Erases Republican's Post-Palin Pick Gains

Barack Obama has seized the reins of economic discontent, vaulting over John McCain's convention gains by persuading voters he both better understands their economic troubles and can better address them.

Concerns about the economy have spiked since the global financial crisis roiled the stock market and sparked a proposed government bailout.

Fifty-three percent of registered voters in this new ABC News/Washington Post poll call the economy the single most important issue in the election, up 12 points in two weeks to an extraordinary level of agreement.

The public is cool to the bailout itself, underscoring economic uncertainty.

Eight in 10 are worried about the economy's future, half of them very worried. Personal concern runs high as well; six in 10 are worried about their family's finances. And 83 percent say the country's seriously off on the wrong track, back within a point of its record high -- set just this June -- in polls dating to early 1970s.

All these work for Obama.

More of the Story

Poll Internals (.pdf)

[Lord Undies]

I hope ABC doesn't strain a muscle pulling Obama's cart.  This poll is ridiculous.  They should be ashamed for releasing it as "news".

[Wretched Excess]

oh, the party affiliation of the sample . . .

Among registered voters 38 percent in this poll identify themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 29 percent as independents.

[Chris_]

oh, the party affiliation of the sample . . .

Among registered voters 38 percent in this poll identify themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 29 percent as independents.

So it was really an Obamessiah push-poll.

[franksolich]

For the record, I'm not worried.

I'm old enough that there's not much new under the sun for me; I've seen it all before.

It's time for conservatives and Republicans to worry less about the presidential race, and to put more of their energies and hopes into getting some more conservative and Republican candidates for other offices elected in November.

[Wretched Excess]

oh, the party affiliation of the sample . . .

Among registered voters 38 percent in this poll identify themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 29 percent as independents.

So it was really an Obamessiah push-poll.

it looks like ABC news was trying to drive viewership with their poll.  nothing like manufacturing the news that you will then feature in your news coverage . . .

[terry]

I'm not worried either, but I do wonder why they do what they do.   I guess the viewership issue could be the answer to this particular poll.

But it seems they do this frequently.   What's the point?  Do they think they can slant it enough that people will stay home.   I don't think that's going to happen because they pretty much lost all credibility with pretty much everyone a long time ago.   I think it is more likely to bring out McCain voters, and cause McCain people to work harder, especially in toss up states.   

Do they do it so that when they lose they can yell STOLEN!!!  RACIST!!! LIARS!!!

[Wretched Excess]

as volatile as the electorate is right now, I think being worried is a perfectly reasonable reaction.

[Miss Mia]

I don't believe polls anyways. 

[Wretched Excess]

yep.  this poll is being used as a lethal weapon in the MSM.  mccain is "in free fall" and "tanking", while obama is "boosted", and "booming".

[Chris_]

And there is the "fabrication" issue......for some reason, my wife and I seem to be polled regularly.......we always lie to them......My usual tactic is to answer that I am an "african-american' pro choice member of the "Constitution" party........

doc

[Servonaut]

From the same poll. Not a PDF

NET LEANED PARTY:

               Democrat     Republican     Independent     Other     No op.
9/22/08 RV     54            38                     7                2         *

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092308.html?hpid=topnews

[Wretched Excess]

From the same poll. Not a PDF

NET LEANED PARTY:

               Democrat     Republican     Independent     Other     No op.
9/22/08 RV     54            38                     7                2         *

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092308.html?hpid=topnews

yeah, those independents were really independent, weren't they?

[Uhhuh35]

20 percent sampled were black when they only make up 13 percent of the population?
 

[Wretched Excess]

20 percent sampled were black when they only make up 13 percent of the population?
 

I would guess that they are "anticipating a marked increase in black voter turnout on november 5".  I have read this argument so much that I could write the press release . . .

[Tess Anderson]

With these kind of polls, I wonder if the MSM is trying to convince us (the American electorate) that this true, or whether they are trying to convince (soothe) themselve, or both.

Yes, this poll is *cooked* -link

Almost a quarter weren't even registerd to vote? This is what happens when you poll Los Angeles, Chicago, and NYC only. 

This is a FOX poll that still shows Barack Hussein Obama leading by six points:

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/092408_poll1.pdf

There are still not enough independents, but there's 13 % "don't knows" - if they vote, alsmost all will go to McCain.

[Baruch Menachem]

You never hear of the Roper Orginization anymore.  They did a poll showing Carter up by 10% on election day 1980.   They were all over the news until 7:40 eastern time of election day.  I have never heard of them since.

Most folks know when they are being lied to, and resent it.  Unless it feeds a need they have.   So the Dummie type will eat this up, but lots of folks will turn off ABC news for a while.

I haven't been polled for years, but for a while I got calls every other week during election season.