Guess which website thinks we're near recession. Take a wild guess.

[BannedFromDU]

Xolodno (6,660 posts) Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:20 PM

Personally, I think we might be just teetering on the edge of a Recession.

And there will be buyers remorse. It may not happen next year, possibly much later. Hear me out:

1. There have been a lot of layoffs this year as well as bankruptcies. Sure, you can say "But job growth has kept continuing!". That doesn't tell the whole story. If you get a job at 50k but were making 100k before, that's still a big hit. And it won't show in the economic indicators right away, but eventually will. Company I left during the "great resignation" a year later laid off 2k+ people (dodged a bullet), many are still looking for work, some have created their own companies (which counts as job creation).

2. Inflation has forced a lot of people to cut back and prices have yet to come back to normal. So people are using debt as a way to pay for things, all the while, still making sacrifices. Amazon made some employee cuts not too long ago and I think more are coming. That hints to me that consumption might be going down.

3. Wages haven't moved up enough, hence with the recent strikes and almost strikes. The almost railroad strike for example still didn't address a lot and the workers had a gun to their head to return to work.

So I think we will eventually find out once all the voting is in, a lot of people simply didn't bother or lodged a protest vote. Granted, it doesn't make sense, but people do irrational things when emotional. We can say the economy is roaring non stop based on some economic indicators, but it was also roaring before the real estate bubble and boom, it happened, house of cards came falling down.

Side note, I don't think we should be too hard on ourselves. Remember that bastard was campaigning the minute he left the Whitehouse, while Harris had roughly three months and did not have enough time, research, develop a message different from Biden, distinguish herself, etc. In a way, it wasn't fair to her to be dropped into this so late in the game.

Nor did it help that Biden, according to the media, was giving blanket aid to Israel as well as the Ukraine war (which was initially pushed as being a quick one, but turned to be a lot longer anyone expected), while people were seeing thier food bills rise (revolutions have started over this).

The GOP I think also knows a reccession might be on the horizon. Which is why they fought tooth and nail to kill Student Loan forgiveness/reform. That could have put more money back into consumption and staved off layoffs, bankruptcies, etc. and pushed off discontent. Instead, that money goes to invisible banks. Leave it to them to commit economic sabotage of your average US worker.

So the party needs to regroup, study and work hard to figure out how to reach out to Joe and Jane Voter. Particularly during a recession, depending when it happens, the GOP may slowly get us out of it, but it won't be very good as I have no faith in their abilities.

How funny. All these storm clouds over the largest economy in the world seem to have emerged in the last 36 hours, I suppose.


To which I say: BULL-SHIT, mother****ers: this is YOUR Biden economy, with it's "3.7%" unemployment and inflation that "is now under control." What happened? This post would have been HOWLED AT a week ago. Now, however:

roamer65 (37,060 posts)
1. We are about 60-90 days away from it being obvious.
Reply to Xolodno (Original post)
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:24 PM

The US Treasuries yield curve is now almost uninverted. Bull steepening it is called and is seen just before recessions when the Federal Reserve starts cutting short term interest rates.

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php

W_HAMILTON (8,437 posts)
7. Yeah, most likely. When is the last time a Republican administration didn't have a recession?
Reply to Xolodno (Original post)
Thu Nov 7, 2024, 07:30 PM

It's basically been a cycle of Republicans **** shit up and we end up in a recession (damn near a depression the last two Republican administrations!) --> Democrats come in and fix it --> Republicans run and win on saying Democrats took too long to fix it or the fix wasn't good enough --> Republicans take credit for and cash out on the Democrats' good economy --> cycle begins anew.

Wow - who knew things could change SO quickly?

(Also, ****stick DUmbasses, you're now saying Trump will inherit a shitty Biden economy. You realize that, right?)


You do not revile these idiots enough.

[Texacon]

Wow. Just ****ing, wow. Admit the obvious AFTER you lose, and lose BIGLY, i might add!

KC

[jukin]

What political party has had the reins of political power since 2021?

Donkey-commies and the truth is that we have been in recession since Q2 2021. But said political party changed definitions of what a recession was and had their propaganda wing lie 24/7 that we were not in recession.

[Ralph Wiggum]

There was surprisingly a small modicum of common sense there, which surprises me from DUmmies and also reminds me of a suggestion for the incoming Trump administration (although I'd much prefer it be done at a local level). There was still a lot of stupid in the responses and the understanding of economics but I expect that from dunce libs.

High school graduation absolutely must require at least a couple of classes in economics and basics of business. Back in the late 1980's, that was part of the core curriculum. If it isn't already mandatory in many states run by conservatives, it absolutely should be. The more I learned about how the business world operated (a lesson that never ends), the more conservative I became.

[DUmpDiver]

The DOW jumped 1500 after Trump was elected. Wall Street must be missing out on the looming recession.

[Airwolf]

So the DUmmies didn't figure that things were in the tank even after shopping on the local economy and looking at the prices? You idiots are now just finding this out? Damn you all need a huge Gibbs slap on the back side of your skulls.