If Trump wins, how will the market react?

[CC27]

misanthrope (8,007 posts)

If Trump wins, how will the market react?
Will it plummet based on the uncertainty of electing a complete lunatic to the White House? His 2016 win shook markets.

Would GOP gains in the Senate push the economy over an even higher cliff? It would nearly guarantee the implementation of his touted tariffs that would douse one of the globe's brighter economies following the COVID-19 crisis.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219579731

YAWN

[SVPete]

In the real world, in November 2016 the DJIA continued the climb it had been on since January 2009. There was a brief ~6 month dip in fall 2019 through spring 2020 (at least partly due to Covid), after which the climb continued. There was another dip, roughly October 2021 through July 2022.

Also in the real world, in November 2016 the NASDAQ continued it climb of several years and kept climbing.

Of course, when facts contradict Prog narratives and beliefs, facts are Reich-Wing.

[Ralph Wiggum]

First of all, you my DUmmy with the appropriate name of misanthrope is only reacting on emotion, not facts. And the cherry-picked data points the left digs out to prove their point might pass to those with IQ's lower than room temperature, but they aren't real.

I'll try to summarize what I've seen, read, and heard from the stock market as of late:

The overseas betting markets (which allow betting on U.S. politics) have shifted dramatically in the past 10 days towards President Trump. Even though I don't gamble in such venues, I follow them for lots of sports-related odds. The hedge-fund managers at the corner of Wall and Broad are already pricing in a Trump win, although some are hedging their bets. Probably 40% of the Wall Street peeps are Kamala voters.

IIRC (because it changes daily), Nvidia is now the largest company in the world by market cap value, along with your usual tech giants. While I don't think their stock prices are going to fall apart quite yet, AI chips take far more energy than our nationwide grid can even handle. Lib states don't even want to allow large data centers because of environmental concerns. And to be honest, artificial intelligence is really really really awful on many levels. It is dependent on who writes the code on how they learn information.

The libs esteemed Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman of the failing NY Slimes predicted that the economy would be capsized if Trump won in 2016.

Paul Krugman: Trump will bring global recession

The economic fallout of a Donald Trump presidency will probably be severe and widespread enough to plunge the world into recession, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warned in a New York Times opinion piece published early Wednesday.

Calling Trump the “mother of all adverse effects,” the Nobel Prize-winning economist predicted that the GOP nominee’s administration could quickly undo the progress that the markets around the world have made in the eight years since the financial crisis.

“Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news,” he wrote. “What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in.”


Krugman’s pessimistic view comes in the wake of a more than 800-point plunge in U.S. stock futures that coincided with Trump’s increasingly strong showing in the polls. Trump has repeatedly attacked the Federal Reserve, accusing Chairwoman Janet Yellen of keeping interest rates low in a bid to help the economy and get Hillary Clinton elected.

“Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work,” Krugman wrote. “So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055

Obviously, that turned out to as good as a Malaise or William Rivers Pitt prediction.

So, misanthrope:

[DUmpDiver]

The markets will have a huge bump if Trump wins. In 2016 they bought into the Krugman predictions for a few days but, in the end, reality prevailed and markets did very well under Trump up until the China virus destroyed economies worldwide.

[CollectivismMustDie]

How about the super market?

Or doesn't that matter to DUmmies?

[USA4ME]

The DUers can't decide about the market and they never have. Since the beginning in 2001 they've been all over the map. The same market that goes up because "Dem policies are working" is the same market that goes up because "Republicans are stealing from the poor and giving to the rich". We can draw similar ungrounded rationalizations when the market drops. They mimic "D's good, R's bad" and every belief they have must fall under that umbrella. It's all emotional, as their whole ideology is built on emotion and not logic and analysis.

.

[Old n Grumpy]

misanthrope (8,007 posts)

If Trump wins, how will the market react?

It will take off like one of Elon Musks rockets!

President Trump will clean up the mess that the biden administration has made of the economy and the country in general.

[SVPete]

Were I looking for stock tips, I'd consult a Ouija Board before I consulted a DU-member ... not that I'd use a Ouija Board.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Another nugget which naturally supports what I typed yesterday:

Billionaire investor says Wall Street 'very convinced' Trump will win 2024 election

A billionaire investor and former money manager for George Soros explained why he thinks markets are "very convinced" that former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 election.

Over the last 12 days, Wall Street has seemed "very convinced Trump is going to win… You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto," Stanley Druckenmiller said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview. It indeed was a big week for bank stocks, as market data showed positive year-over-year indicators for Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citibank and JPMorgan Chase. Additionally, a new report out Thursday from Chainalysis has found that North America dominates the crypto market globally, with an estimated $1.3 trillion on the blockchain.

When asked who he plans to vote for in November, the investor responded: "I certainly would never support either one of them."

Turning his focus to Congress, Druckenmiller predicted that it is "extremely unlikely" for Democrats to gain control of both chambers – even if Vice President Harris is elected – and that a red sweep is "probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress." Another Soros fund alum, Scott Bessent, made an appearance on FOX Business’ "Mornings with Maria" this week, arguing that Trump is proposing a "growth agenda" and that the world’s leaders know "he means business." "I'm expecting that President Trump's going to win. And that I would like to help any way I can, inside or out. But there are no jobs if he doesn't win," the Key Square Capital Management CEO said on Wednesday.

"Donald Trump has added a new leg to the Trump stool. Alexander Hamilton loved tariffs. He's the original tariff man, and he did it to raise revenues and to protect American industry. Donald Trump has added the negotiating leg," Bessent added.

Market betting odds have also heavily skewed in Trump’s favor, according to the Wall Street Journal, as four Polymarket accounts have poured about $30 million in crypto into bets that the 45th president will win.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/billionaire-investor-says-wall-street-very-convinced-trump-win-2024-election

[jukin]

I'm waiting for Paul "Dwarf" Krugman (hyper demo-fascist partisan) to come out with his prediction and then bet the opposite way.

[SVPete]

I'm waiting for Paul "Dwarf" Krugman (hyper demo-fascist partisan) to come out with his prediction and then bet the opposite way.

Inverse stock tips?