Democrats could win it all.

[dutch508]

Star Member Demsrule86 (64,275 posts)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217314654

The Polls could be off and Democrats could win it all...from 538.

It could go the the other way too

of course but enough folks here are breathlessly posting bad news multiple times a day (why?) so I will leave a link for those who wish to explore that possibility or someone else can post because I won't. Safe to say this...no one has any idea what will happen on Tuesday In fact, all this premature screaming about election fraud makes me wonder if some on the Right know or suspect they will lose on Tuesday...here is hoping.

 

Star Member onecaliberal (27,443 posts)

1. 538 polls are not reliable. Joy Reid explained why on her show a few days ago.

 

Star Member yardwork (55,009 posts)

3. My understanding is that 538 isn't a poll. It's an aggregator of polls.

Garbage in, garbage out. 538's predictions are only as good as the accuracy of the polls they aggregate.

Star Member onecaliberal (27,443 posts)

4. Right wing skewed polls.

BlueCheeseAgain (577 posts)

33. They aggregate all polls and try to account for pollster bias. Whether they do so successfully is hard to say. But I do think they're aware of the problem.

Deminpenn (14,484 posts)

20. 538 does no polling, it's not really a poll aggregator either

What it does do is take polling data, which is massages to some degree, then runs 1000s of computer simulations, then adds up the outcomes and divides each by the number of simulations run. For ex, if it runs 100 simulations and those produce 51 outcomes where Dems hold a majority of senate seats. That translates into Dems having a 51% chance of winning/holding the senate.

538 is run by statisticians, not pollsters or political analysts.

themaguffin (3,255 posts)

32. The context is still correct, "538 polls" are not reliable, as in 538 includes shady R polls skewing

...the results.

Star Member onecaliberal (27,443 posts)

36. 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

It’s done purposely also. They know they’re doing it.

Star Member RussBLib (6,407 posts)

2. ignore the polls and VOTE

like our lives depended on it.

Democracy sure does!

Star Member Scrivener7 (45,441 posts)

6. We will know when we know. I'm imagining a LOT of women

who will vote D but won't talk about it in front of their maga husbands. I really hope Kansas was a bellweather.

But we all process information differently. And we will know when we know.

 

Star Member Demsrule86 (64,275 posts)

18. I think you are right...there will red areas that go for the Democrats...they have missed the Roe

polling completely...on election night the trend should become pretty clear after the polls close. It could go either way. But I am sick of the post that just insists we are doomed...maybe -maybe not but I still think we could win this.

Star Member Demsrule86 (64,275 posts)

43. I say they lose the house because of Roe...women know you need both houses to codify Roe.

That is my hope anyway.

 

[Muddling 2]

 

 

 

Honestly, they're sounding just like Conservatives sounded in 2012 when the polls showed Romney trailing Obama.

I held my nose and voted for Romney; I wish he had campaigned as hard FOR the presidency as he has campaigned AGAINST Conservatives in recent years.

[ADsOutburst]

Sure, democrats could win it all.

It wouldn't make a shred of sense, seeing how they don't own any of the issues (except maybe abortion), but sure, they could win.

[DefiantSix]

Sure, democrats could win it all.

It wouldn't make a shred of sense, seeing how they don't own any of the issues (except maybe abortion), but sure, they could win.

What matters is that they appear to own the benevolent, all powerful Dominion Vote Tabulators of Plenty whose word must never be questioned, nor their Supreme lack of bias doubted, lest such infidels be cast into the fires before their blasphemy can taint the hearts of the faithful.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Star Member onecaliberal (27,443 posts)

1. 538 polls are not reliable. Joy Reid explained why on her show a few days ago.

If you're using race baiting Joy-less Reid as a resource, you've already failed.

I've been following Nate Silver and his 538 site since he was a young baseball statistician and analyst. Once his work started hitting the mainstream of sports, ESPN/Disney bought him out and he started compiling data for them. Subsequently, the New York Slimes hired him to house his 538 site.

Just because it is easy and accurate via Wikipedia:

The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online and renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus.

It is a polling aggregator, not a polling firm. They gauge the hundreds of polls around the country and analyze how predictive they are. It is not unlike the touts one might here regarding investing or sports betting.

In this case, Nate Silver is a devout leftist and tosses his thumb on the leftist side of the scale whenever possible. His data and work are unassailable, but the interpretations of such are clearly biased by his political leanings.

[USA4ME]

Baggies

14. I think bookmarking is the key.

That way after the election you can confront the poster and ask them why they were so insistent on being wrong.

 

.

[freedumb2003b]

No.  No they cannot.

[SVPete]

Election Denial preppers.

That is all.

[DefiantSix]

No.  No they cannot.

What's hilarious to me is that they're saying this shit even though right now, today, their guys are in control of the White House and both houses of Congress, yet they're pinning their hopes on this election sweeping their enemies aside like so much chaff from a threshing floor.

The disconnect from reality is jaw dropping...

[Karin]

Demsrule86 is so delusional over there.  She thinks that legalized abortion is the number one, top spot, none-else issue for every single person out there.  Never mind all the polls that say that voters care about inflation, economy, and crime.  She says those polls are lying, it MUST be about abortion.  She will not be convinced otherwise by Sympthsical or anyone else.   

[jukin]

Demsrule86 is so delusional over there.  She thinks that legalized abortion is the number one, top spot, none-else issue for every single person out there.  Never mind all the polls that say that voters care about inflation, economy, and crime.  She says those polls are lying, it MUST be about abortion.  She will not be convinced otherwise by Sympthsical or anyone else.

Living in the moon battiest insane blue area in Kalifornia, we got a campaign, donk of course, from the guy trying to be our next state assemblyman. It is expensive piece of propaganda but talks only ONE POINT ABORTION. Not inflation, not crime, not mortgage rates, not nuclear war, or food shortages or doubling gas prices, or energy prices, or illegal criminal invaders, nope. There is not one mention of the top 10 things people are concerned with just abortion.

If it weren't for fraud by mail voting this would be an indicator he is desperate and looking at losing but it is fraud by mail so he will win.