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Rejected mail-in ballots could play a decisive role in the 2020 election, with a small but critical number of dismissed ballots potentially flipping poll numbers on their head and handing President Trump another surprise victory Nov. 3. Americans are voting by mail in record numbers in 2020, driven largely by months of public health warnings that due to COVID-19, Americans should avoid large gatherings, particularly indoor events, and should avoid touching commonly used surfaces or objects, inescapable realities of in-person polling locations. Though officials including White House coronavirus adviser Anthony Fauci have assured Americans that voting in person this year is safe, a record number of Americans — around 30% — plan to cast their ballots by mail this year. That's up from about 20% in 2016 and is a threefold increase from 2000.
Rejections usually depend upon signatures, deadlinesBallot rejections are driven primarily by two factors, according to a research paper published this month by several academic scholars at Dartmouth, the University of Georgia, and the University of Florida. "The most common reasons for ballot rejection," they wrote, "are (1) lateness and (2) the presence of a signature defect on a ballot's return envelope." Mail-in deadlines have been a source of significant contention over the past several months. Numerous activists, many of them adjacent to influential Democratic groups, have been spearheading efforts, including lawsuits, to extend ballot counting deadlines well past the Nov. 3 election date. Many states have tried to extend that deadline, though not always successfully.On Friday, an appeals court struck down a Michigan rule mandating a two-week window for counting ballots after Election Day, stating that the extension was both illegal and unwarranted even in light of the pandemic.