S. Korea Intel says N. Korea unlikely to Really Have ICBM

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South Korean intelligence services say it is unlikely that, despite their claims and recent ‘testing’, North Korea does not have long range ICBM capabilities.

(WASHINGTON) North Korea does not appear to have the technology to build intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or have testing facilities for them, South Korean intelligence services said, referring to a recent long-range missile test Pyongyang claimed was successful.

"Although North Korea claimed that [the missile's] heat resistance was verified, whether it re-entered [the atmosphere safely] was not confirmed and the country has no relevant test facility, making it look like it has not secured the technology,” South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a report to the parliamentary intelligence committee, as cited by Yonhap news agency.

The NIS has not been able to confirm that the Hwasong-14 missile test was successful, Yi Wan-young, a member of the South Korean parliament's intelligence committee, said, as cited by Reuters.

“Considering how North Korea does not have any testing facilities [for re-entry technology], the agency believes [North Korea] has not yet secured that technology,” he said.

The intelligence agency believes that the missile was a modified version of an intermediate-range missile that North Korea tested in May, Yi added.

On Tuesday North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un joined a pop music concert devoted to the ICBM test launch.
‘Song of Hwasong Rocket’ and ‘Make Others Envy Us’ were performed at the celebrations, Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency reported, as cited by AP.

Earlier in July, North Korea test-launched a Hwasong-14 missile which it said flew 933km in 39 minutes, reaching an altitude of 2,802km.

However, the Russian Ministry of Defense assessed it was an intermediate-range missile (IRBM), saying it flew some 535km and reached an altitude of 510km.


http://www.trunews.com/article/s.-korea-intel-says-n.-korea-unlikely-to-really-have-icbm

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Chinese trade with North Korea jumped 10.5% in the first half of this year, according to China Customs data

    China Customs said the country's trade with North Korea had grown 10.5 percent in the first half of the year
    Imports from North Korea actually fell 13.2 percent to $880 million
    Exports to North Korea, however, jumped 29 percent to $1.67 billion

Exports to North Korea rose 29.1 percent to $1.67 billion during the period, the data showed.

China's trade with North Korea expanded by 10.5 percent to $2.55 billion in the six months.

The exports were largely driven by textile products and other traditional labor-intensive goods that are not included on the United Nations embargo list, Huang Songping, a customs spokesman, said at a briefing in Beijing.

Notably, China Customs said its first-half coal and iron ore imports from North Korea were in line with U.N. Security Council resolutions.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/12/chinese-trade-with-north-korea-jumped-10-point-5-percent-in-the-first-half-of-this-year-according-to-china-customs-data.html

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Don’t Be Fooled, There Is No ‘Diplomacy’ With North Korea

Some would prefer a preemptive attack.
By Jason C. Ditz • July 13, 2017

The idea of diplomatic engagement rests heavily on the idea of compromise, giving something to the other side and getting something in return. Of course, the main priorities of the U.S. are no mystery in this regard, wanting North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program and to stop researching missiles of the sort that might someday have the range to hit the American mainland. Regime change and reunification can also be said to be U.S. goals of a sort, but they are clearly lower priorities, mostly reflective of the goals of allied South Korea.

The big obstacle to diplomacy is not a lack of clarity on what the U.S. would hope to accomplish, but rather the unwillingness to make any concessions to achieve that. North Korea’s main goals are similarly no mystery: They want a formal peace agreement to end the 1950 Korean War, and an end to annual military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea, which focus heavily on planning for an all-out war against North Korea. This is a particularly high priority, since North Korea has the sense that such a U.S. attack may be imminent. It’s not surprising, given what U.S. officials have been saying.

China and South Korea both favor the diplomatic approach, and both have been pushing the Trump Administration to consider serious proposals for a broad deal. While there are several variations, at the core of the proposal involves North Korea totally freezing both their nuclear and missile programs, the U.S. halting wargames, and reducing the American military footprint on the Korean Peninsula.

It’s not a bad deal, and gives the U.S. what it wants. That South Korea is backing the deal is particularly significant, showing that they’re willing to give up the annual war exercise, and see some of the U.S. troops withdraw from their territory, in return for these concessions.

The White House is not only sour on the specifics of the idea, but is rejecting such proposals out of hand, insisting they don’t want to make any deals that involve lifting any economic or military pressure on North Korea.

Rejecting the deal out of hand should at this point be unfathomable for the U.S., since Mattis has made clear we don’t want the war in the first place. Even the illusion of wanting a war would not longer be a valuable pretense if North Korea makes these concessions. Diplomacy—actual, proper diplomacy—is in everyone’s best interest, and the only question is how long it will take the administration to figure that out.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/dont-be-fooled-there-is-no-diplomacy-with-north-korea/