Reassessing the 'Bradley Effect' in elections (it doesn't exist?)

[Wretched Excess]

if it doesn't exist, then why did The BarackStar! consistently poll higher than his actual vote in the primaries?

Dan Walters: Reassessing the 'Bradley Effect' in elections

Barack Obama's historic bid for the presidency has spawned many political theories, one of which is that he could fall victim to the "Bradley Effect."

Even a cursory media database search finds dozens of recent references to the term, usually in conjunction with Obama's somewhat lackluster standing in the polls vis-à-vis rival John McCain, such as this one from NBC pundit Chris Matthews:

"I mean, is this going to be something we can't even interpret through polling? We can talk about the Bradley Effect because of what happened to Tom Bradley when he ran for governor of California and won in the polls twice and lost the governorship twice on Election Day. I've seen theories about this, that unless the African American candidate is able to get … the election number he needs, he won't get it that day. He has to get it in the polling, and Barack hasn't cracked about 45 percent."

Or this one from a Wall Street Journal article on political polling:

"Pollsters look for the Bradley Effect, the idea that some white voters are reluctant to say they support a white candidate over a black candidate. The phrase refers to California's 1982 gubernatorial election, when the late Tom Bradley, a black Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, led in exit polls against white Republican George Deukmejian. Mr. Bradley lost the election. The conclusion: Some voters hid their true choice from pollsters."

The Bradley Effect, which has circulated in California political circles for decades, has gone national. But there's one problem – it probably isn't true.

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[Lord Undies]

Another "journalist" with a box of Crayolas trying to stay within the lines.  If the "Bradley Effect" doesn't exist, and it did and it does, then we have no racism in this country....so it is time to stop pretend we do (for political purposes) and MOVEON.org.

Obama is going down and going down hard.  He is a hardcore anti-American liberal Marxist who is also a muslim sympathizer.  It is the blackness of his heart, not his half-white skin, that will keep him a loser. 

[paladin0]

There was several contests where Obama didn't measure up to the polling data. Not all areas have the "Bradley Effect" but it's there.

Paladin0

[Wretched Excess]

There was several contests where Obama didn't measure up to the polling data. Not all areas have the "Bradley Effect" but it's there.

Paladin0

just the ones that count.  OH, PA, MI, and WI.

if I was a democrat, I would be worried.

[Jim]

People will not be 100% honest about race questions.  The race warlords have seen to that.

And BHO will ultimately see just how true that is in November.  More than Kerry did.

Best put the car in the garage election night.  And keep the sidearm handy.

[Tess Anderson]

Walters seems to be in denial that the Bradley Effect even exists:

The basis for the theory is that Bradley was leading in the polls right up to Election Day, yet lost the election. What Bradley Effect theorists miss is that the polls were actually quite accurate – as far as they went. Bradley won among voters who cast ballots on Election Day, as "exit polling" of voters confirmed. Based on those polls, in fact, many news outlets immediately declared Bradley the winner.

He  goes on to blame absentee  ballots for Bradley's ultimate defeat, but what Walter's not saying is that their exit polls showed Bradley winning "then" with a huge margin, which wasn't reflected in the actual ballot tallies that day, so either the exit pollsters (and all the others) were wrong or the Bradley Effect kicked in.

His other point:

Finally, the story of the 1982 election is not that Bradley was the victim of a hidden anti-black vote, but that he did so well during an era in which Republicans had the upper hand. Then-Gov. Jerry Brown lost his 1982 bid for the U.S. Senate (to Republican Pete Wilson) by five times the margin Bradley lost the governorship and Republicans dominated top-of-the-ticket elections throughout the 1980s in California.

still misses the mark - he's talking about ideological shifts that don't explain away the Bradley Effect - the polls didn't match the results. If the "Republicans had the upper hand", those polled would be less likely to lie about it in an attempt to appear "color-blind".

I always thought there was a twist on the Bradley Effect during the Democrat primaries this year  - all the "undecideds" would about break to Hillary Clinton at the polling site. The Bradley Effect is usually even more devastating in a general election, Barack Hussein Obama playing the "race card" will just make it stronger.

[DumbAss Tanker]

The Bradley Effect, which has circulated in California political circles for decades, has gone national. But there's one problem – it probably isn't true.

I guess we'll see.  I'm sure Black voters will deliver for him, however I think there are a lot of non-Black voters who say "Obama" to pollsters because they regard it as PC, expected, and expedient, a large chunk of whom will NOT come through for him.

[NHSparky]

Dan Walters: Wishful thinking ain't gonna stop your candidate from getting curb-stomped INSIDE the polling place, where it actually matters.