http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026538947Oh my.
Ken Burch (35,598 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:16 PM
Perspective
At this point in 1971, Ed Muskie was considered virtually certain to win the nominee and be elected in the fall of '72
At this point in 1979, Ted Kennedy was considered virtually certain to win the nomination and likely to win in the fall of '80.
At this point in 1987, Mario Cuomo was considered virtually certain to win the nomination and likely to win in the fall of '88.
At this point in 2007, HRC herself was considered virtually certain to win the nomination and likely to win in the fall of '08.
H2O Man (51,852 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:23 PM
1. I agree on 1971 & 2007.
I do not believe the other two examples are really accurate. But I think that it's worth recognizing that a lot can change in a year's time.
upaloopa (6,472 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:23 PM
2. The past does not determine the future.
That says nothing about today. If you leave out context you are not saying anything.
Skinner (60,244 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:30 PM
3. I don't know anything about Ed Muskie's run. But your other three examples are off-base.
In 1979 Jimmy Carter was the Democratic Incumbent President. Ted Kennedy's primary challenge was not "virtually certain" by any stretch of the imagination. Pretty much by definition, primary challenges are rarely sure things.
In 1987 1991/1992 Cuomo decided not to run for president because he believed George Bush Sr -- riding a wave of post-Gulf War popularity -- was unbeatable. Had Cuomo run he would have been the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, but he was by no means a shoo-in. And there was no expectation that the Democratic candidate (whoever it was) would be a "likely" winner in the fall. (Edited to change the date. I was thinking of 1992. Don't remember how 1988 went down, except that Cuomo didn't run then either.)
In 2007 Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner, but she was not virtually certain to win the nomination or likely to win in the fall. The Democratic primary had three high-profile candidates with a legitimate shot at winning the nomination.
To be clear: No, Hillary isn't a shoo-in this year either -- especially in the general. But her position today is not comparable to any of the three campaigns I mentioned here. She is in a much more dominant position.
BKH70041 (632 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:43 PM
4. I agree with you, but point of order on 1987.
The Gulf War was later. In 1987, Bush41 was riding the wave of 8 years of Reagan.
Skinner (60,244 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:48 PM
5. Of course. I was thinking of 1991/1992.
I heard "Cuomo" and immediately thought of how he was the presumptive frontrunner in the 1992 primary. He didn't run in 1988 either.
BKH70041 (632 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:56 PM
6. That is true, sir.
Thank you for bringing that to my attention.
Skinner (60,244 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:57 PM
7. And thank you for pointing out my mistake.
Ken Burch (35,598 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 04:59 PM
8. I wasn't referring to 1992 because we had NO presumptive frontrunner that year.
I don't think anyone really took Cuomo seriously as a presidential candidate by then, especially since he seemed to be insisting on some sort of a guarantee that no one else would seek the nomination against him-something NO candidate has a right to demand.
Ken Burch (35,598 posts) Mon Apr 20, 2015, 05:01 PM
9. Carter was the incumbent, but Kennedy had a huge lead over him in all polls at that stage.
a lead of over 20 points in many of them.
The point was, that lead evaporated as soon as his candidacy became real, and never returned.
You know, this is one of those rare, maddening, instances where franksolich agrees with a primitive--and of all primitives, the deplorable Ken Burch [no relation to Fat Che] primitive.
Actually, he probably got the idea from me; for years I've described the tedious primitive habit of thinking something's set in stone--abortion, for example--when in fact it's barely imprinted in sand.
Times change, the world changes, people change;
anything can happen. The only certain Inevitability is.....God.
