The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2012 => Topic started by: Ballygrl on November 04, 2012, 11:06:23 AM
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Nate Silver â€@fivethirtyeight
We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1.
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I was wondering when Nate would start hedging his bets :lmao:
The short of that Tweet is If Obama wins the popular vote, he wins, if Obama loses the popular vote, he loses.
The 'tie' is just there to soften the blow to primitives. The odds of another 1880 election are slim to none, since there is no strong 3rd party candidate this time around.
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Nate is digging himself a hole, hes got Romney all the way down to a 14.9% overall chance to win. On Wednesday his political career will be over and he will have to go back to sports stats
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Why would he put his entire career on the line going way out making a prediction like that?
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Why would he put his entire career on the line going way out making a prediction like that?
Because he made his model and now he is stuck with it, he would look even worse to switch it before the election even happened.
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I saw Nate Silver on Charlie Rose insisting that he isn't a liberal and that he won't be voting this year. He claims that he hasn't voted joining the New York Times.