The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: Texacon on October 26, 2012, 04:07:44 PM
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I wonder why this post didn't get much play at the DUmp? (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021590758)
Sat Oct 20, 2012, 09:29 PM
Honeycombe8 (13,612 posts)
What did the polls look like on this date in 2008? Here ya go....pretty interesting
To remind us all, in 2008 the final election results were:
OBAMA 52.9% (aka 53%) and MCCAIN 45.9% (aka 46%)......A 7.3% spread
Obama had been ahead of McCain for some time, across the board, by the election date. But still, what did the polls show on this date in 2008?
</body>
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9..... 52........42.....Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5..... 44........43.....Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50..... 42...................Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5..... 51........46.....Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53..... 39..................Obama +14
Rasmussen Reports 10/16 - 10/18 3000 LV 2..... 51........45.....Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/16 - 10/18 2590 LV 2..... 49........46.....Obama +3
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/16 - 10/18 2277 LV 2..... 51........44.....Obama +7
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/16 - 10/18 1211 LV 2.9..... 48........45.....Obama +3
Democracy Corps (D) 10/15 - 10/19 1000 LV --..... 50........46.....Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 10/13 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.1..... 49..... 45........Obama +4
F&M/Hearst-Argyle 10/13 - 10/19 LV 3.5..... 50..... 45........Obama +5
IBD/TIPP 10/14 - 10/18 1072 LV 3..... 47..... 42........Obama +5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls
And really interesting is what realclearpolitics.com final poll average was (7.6 spread...pretty darn close):
General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
Final Results -- -- -- 52.9..... 45.6..... Obama +7.3
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/3 -- --..... 52.1..... 44.5..... Obama +7.6
Marist 11/03 - 11/03 804 LV 4..... 52..... 43.....Obama +9
Battleground (Lake)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5.....52.....47..... Obama +5
Battleground (Tarrance)* 11/02 - 11/03 800 LV 3.5.....50.....48..... Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 11/01 - 11/03 3000 LV 2.....52.....46..... Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/01 - 11/03 1201 LV 2.9..... 54.....43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/01 - 11/03 981 LV 3.2..... 52..... 44.....Obama +8
FOX News 11/01 - 11/02 971 LV 3..... 50..... 43.....Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011 LV 3.1..... 51.....43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2472 LV 2..... 55..... 44.....Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 887 LV 3.3..... 50..... 45.....Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/02 714 LV --..... 51..... 42.....Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/02 2470 LV 2.5..... 53.....44..... Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/02 760 LV 3.6..... 53..... 46.....Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 LV 3.5..... 53.....46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/01 2587 LV 2..... 52..... 46.....Obama +6
LOL! Nope, just can't trust those polls can ya? Wonder why they don't give any credence to Rasmussen and Gallup now?
:whatever:
KC
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That is what it looks like now, only Romney is the one with the lead. This is looking really good ...
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I've heard from several sources that Romney could win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote.
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I've heard from several sources that Romney could win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote.
It's possible to construct such a scenario, because the way the electoral system works outside the tiny number of states with proportional respresentation, any popular votes over what you need to win a state are more or less wasted. So, if you take 90% of the vote in one state and your opponent beats you by a squeaker in several others, you win total numbers of voters but lose on the electoral count.
It cuts both ways, though. While there are solid red states where a lot of that popular vote majority goes to waste, it's just as big a problem for the Dems - California and New York, for instance.
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Mitt Romney likely win in November indicated by latest polls
If the election were held today Mitt Romney would win 321 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 217 electoral votes according to the latest polling data available today.
The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a 49 percent to 47 percent margin. The new Gallup Tracking poll released today shows Romney leading 52 percent to 45 percent. Today's release of the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll shows a 52 percent to 41 percent lead for Mitt Romney. These are the most accurate and least skewed polls among those currently included in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls.
Examiner (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-likely-win-november-indicated-latest-polls?cid=db_articles)
:evil:
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Examiner (http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-likely-win-november-indicated-latest-polls?cid=db_articles)
:evil:
According to RCP obama will win it 290 to 248 ..
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Welcome_hubby (128 posts)
Political Scientist: "Outliers like Rasmussen usually turn out to be wrong"
Today, Professor of Political Science Alan Abramowitz analyzes Rasmussen polls in general. Excerpt:
In 2012 as in 2010, Rasmussen is producing polls in key states that are significantly more favorable to the Republican candidate than an average of all polls in those states. Perhaps this time Rasmussen will prove to be more accurate than the average. But outliers like Rasmussen usually turn out to be wrong and Rasmussen's track record certainly shouldn't give election watchers much confidence in their results. Maybe that's why Fox News stopped using Rasmussen for their state and national polling this year. Producing polling results that please one side or the other may work for a while, but eventually journalists and voters catch on to the fact that those results don't seem to match the numbers on election night.
Link to full article here.
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021646273
Emphasis is OP's
They are scared.
KC
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I've heard from several sources that Romney could win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote.
I wouldn't say that is impossible, anything can happen. We saw what happened in 2000 and the dirty tricks the left tried.
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I was watching CNBC last night and they said, and I quote: 'They might as well call the election right now for Romney'. He is ahead in the polls enough to, from what they said, a point where he pretty much won the election.
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I was watching CNBC last night and they said, and I quote: 'They might as well call the election right now for Romney'. He is ahead in the polls enough to, from what they said, a point where he pretty much won the election.
Oh, but keep in mind 1948.
Gallup stopped polling in September of that year because they said "the election's over, Dewey won."
Oooooooops.
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Okay so polls are looking decent for us, here is my request from everyone here. No matter what either do the early voting thing, or make sure you vote on election day. No excuses.
If you are still uncertain about Romney for whatever reason, balance that against what you know we will get with 0bama. I would much rather risk bitching and moaning the next 4 years about how bad Romney is than to watch the destruction that 0bama has in store for us unfold, and I hope you would too.
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Okay so polls are looking decent for us, here is my request from everyone here. No matter what either do the early voting thing, or make sure you vote on election day. No excuses.
If you are still uncertain about Romney for whatever reason, balance that against what you know we will get with 0bama. I would much rather risk bitching and moaning the next 4 years about how bad Romney is than to watch the destruction that 0bama has in store for us unfold, and I hope you would too.
Early voted the first day it was allowed in Texas. My name is even on the EV roll. I just checked.
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Okay so polls are looking decent for us, here is my request from everyone here. No matter what either do the early voting thing, or make sure you vote on election day. No excuses.
If you are still uncertain about Romney for whatever reason, balance that against what you know we will get with 0bama. I would much rather risk bitching and moaning the next 4 years about how bad Romney is than to watch the destruction that 0bama has in store for us unfold, and I hope you would too.
My sentiments too, Freep. Now is not the time to get complacent. Football analogy: It's late in the fourth quarter, Team Romney has a 1 point lead and the ball on their own 20. Team obumbles is desperate and will do anything to get the ball back. Stick with the game plan and drive it down Team obumbles throat to run out the clock... but most of all do not make any stupid mistakes. :cheersmate:
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Okay so polls are looking decent for us, here is my request from everyone here. No matter what either do the early voting thing, or make sure you vote on election day. No excuses.
If you are still uncertain about Romney for whatever reason, balance that against what you know we will get with 0bama. I would much rather risk bitching and moaning the next 4 years about how bad Romney is than to watch the destruction that 0bama has in store for us unfold, and I hope you would too.
Even though I'm in New York, you bet your fourth point of contact that I'll be voting (for Romney). IIRC, California's 55 EVs go to whomever wins the national popular vote. Nothing like rubbing it in moonbat faces.
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Okay so polls are looking decent for us, here is my request from everyone here. No matter what either do the early voting thing, or make sure you vote on election day. No excuses.
If you are still uncertain about Romney for whatever reason, balance that against what you know we will get with 0bama. I would much rather risk bitching and moaning the next 4 years about how bad Romney is than to watch the destruction that 0bama has in store for us unfold, and I hope you would too.
Just about to leave my house to go vote along with my wife and my newly registered 18 year old daughter. Unfortunately my son won't be voting. He says he's too busy and evidently it's not easy on his FOB.
KC
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Even though I'm in New York, you bet your fourth point of contact that I'll be voting (for Romney). IIRC, California's 55 EVs go to whomever wins the national popular vote. Nothing like rubbing it in moonbat faces.
I don't think that CA EV thing is in effect.
Just about to leave my house to go vote along with my wife and my newly registered 18 year old daughter. Unfortunately my son won't be voting. He says he's too busy and evidently it's not easy on his FOB.
KC
His voting assistance officer sucks then...
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OBAMA 52.9% (aka 53%) and MCCAIN 45.9% (aka 46%)......A 7.3% spread
Looks like his cult followers are no better at math than Obama, economic super genius, is either.
52.9-45.9=7.0
53-46=7
Unless my HP15C has finally stopped producing accurate answers after 30 years.
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Early voted the first day it was allowed in Texas. My name is even on the EV roll. I just checked.
How do you do that?
KC
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I don't think that CA EV thing is in effect.
His voting assistance officer sucks then...
Just going off what the boy told me. Take it for what it's worth. I will tell you his best friend is at Ft. Riley and texted me several times trying to figure out how to vote. We finally got him hooked up.
KC
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How do you do that?
KC
Went to the Cameron County website, and looked for the pdf in the voter section. Don't know if every county is required to do this, but check yours.
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Went to the Cameron County website, and looked for the pdf in the voter section. Don't know if every county is required to do this, but check yours.
Will do! Thanks!
KC