The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: Ballygrl on October 18, 2012, 12:08:25 PM
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A few days after the debate too!
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(http://www.banyanbranch.com/social-blog/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/haha1.gif)
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Per Joe Trippi to Democrats "it's officially time to worry".
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Per Karl Rove "no candidate has ever lost the election when being up in the Gallup poll this close to the election".
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Gallup is the 7 day rolling average but it also includes 1 day post debate.
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Per Joe Trippi to Democrats "it's officially time to worry".
The Democrats, liberals, and primitives should've been worried since circa 11:00 a.m. January 20, 2009; worried about keeping their promises and making things better.
But no, they worried only about feathering their own nests.
That's life, that's reality, that's the way things are.
But the Democrats, liberals, and primitives figured they'd be in power forever, or something, so not to worry.
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I'll be $100 richer from the office OBot, who retired some time ago (I have his email and phone #).
I can use that cash. The Heiress' tuition, or something for the townhouse . . .
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However, folks, we have to be vigilant, very vigilant, always vigilant.
Remember that Democrat machines in the big cities are good, really good, at creating "votes" out of thin air.
And lots of them--one Democrat boss in Cleveland can create more than enough fictitious votes to offset the votes honestly cast in the Great Plains states.
And because of "early voting," the bosses have more time to tamper with the paperwork.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)
Headline from Drudge:
"Romney takes first lead in Electoral College"
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)
Headline from Drudge:
"Romney takes first lead in Electoral College"
I am liking that. I am sure it will keep up.
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However, folks, we have to be vigilant, very vigilant, always vigilant.
Remember that Democrat machines in the big cities are good, really good, at creating "votes" out of thin air.
And lots of them--one Democrat boss in Cleveland can create more than enough fictitious votes to offset the votes honestly cast in the Great Plains states.
And because of "early voting," the bosses have more time to tamper with the paperwork.
Frank, most of those blue hell holes are going to Obama already. A few more or a few thousand in states already in Obama column don't mean anything to the electoral vote.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)
Headline from Drudge:
"Romney takes first lead in Electoral College"
(http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/japan_before_after/bp4_off.jpg)
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But but but.....what about Obama's parting "47%" shot at the last debate??? That had toast!!!!! :panic:
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:ohmy:
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(http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/japan_before_after/bp4_off.jpg)
You should post a pic of a sunami. That would best explain what it is going to happen to poor 'ol Barry...
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Frank, most of those blue hell holes are going to Obama already. A few more or a few thousand in states already in Obama column don't mean anything to the electoral vote.
Which is why they want so much to get rid of the electoral college. Right now, if all of the residents of Chicago's cemeteries turn out to vote, that only serves to keep Illinois' electoral votes in Dem pockets. Without the electoral college, the damage is nationwide.
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You should post a pic of a sunami. That would best explain what it is going to happen to poor 'ol Barry...
That's exactly what that is--from the Japan one of a couple of years ago.
So's this one:
(http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/498/overrides/japan-earthquake-tsunami-before-after-wave-before_49809_600x450.jpg)
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I'll be $100 richer from the office OBot, who retired some time ago (I have his email and phone #).
I can use that cash. The Heiress' tuition, or something for the townhouse . . .
I too have a $100 bet with my local lib buddy. I told him I was going to donate it to Jeb Bush's campaign for President.
:lmao:
KC
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I'll be $100 richer from the office OBot, who retired some time ago (I have his email and phone #).
I can use that cash. The Heiress' tuition, or something for the townhouse . . .
I hope you got odds. We're still in deep trouble in the electoral college.
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I am liking that. I am sure it will keep up.
It won't - even if liberal polling companies need to use a +40D sample to make those headlines change, they will.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)
Headline from Drudge:
"Romney takes first lead in Electoral College"
That's weird, they have NJ as leaning Obama, I think the last poll I saw here has Obama up by 9-14 points, if it's that high why isn't it listed as likely Obama?
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I hope you got odds. We're still in deep trouble in the electoral college.
Do you have numbers other than these?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
That one shows 206 to 201 Romney. The only other one I've seen was sent to me by my lib buddy and it came from Huffpo. I haven't gone out looking for others either though.
KC
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WOW! they have Pennsylvania a tossup!
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I'm surprised they have Texas as likely Romney. I don't know what's up with that but I'm hoping it means they are being conservative on their views.
KC
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WOW! they have Pennsylvania a tossup!
And NC as leaning Romney :cheerleader2:
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http://www.270towin.com/
Obama 201
Romney 191
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground
Obama 237
Romney 191
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
Obama 277
Romney 206
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
Obama 237
Romney 191
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php
Obama 281
Romney 257
Ok, there's a few. Can I pick the one I like? I'm guessing these places use the polls to come up with their numbers?
If that's the case some of these could be wildly off.
KC
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Interestingly the Intrade map shows Texas as having the highest probability (of the entire country) of going to Romney while the RCP map shows Texas as 'likely' Romney.
KC
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Here's another interesting tidbit;
Poll Data Shows That Obama Is Way Behind (http://www.westernjournalism.com/poll-data-shows-that-obama-is-way-behind/)
<snip>
When the numbers for both men are added up, Romney is getting 50.09 – not very impressive until we consider Obama’s 41.354. There are 8.556 points of“undecided†voters. Two separate surveys of how undecided voters eventually vote show that at least 80% go with the challenger. This gives Romney another 6.8448 for a grand total of 56.9348, and Obama gets another 1.7112 for a total of 43.0652. Under this formula, Obama trails by 8.736 points.
Yesterday’s Gallup poll shows Romney leading 51/45 among likely voters. This means that a guy doing a little research and using a $10.00 calculator produced an aggregate score that is just 2.8448 off Gallup’s 51/45- well within any standard margin of error.
<snip>
Right? Wrong? I have no idea but we'll see on November 6th.
KC
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Interestingly the Intrade map shows Texas as having the highest probability (of the entire country) of going to Romney while the RCP map shows Texas as 'likely' Romney.
KC
RCP used to be a fairly reliable source of polling data, but since 2010, Democrat pollsters have been 'DUing' RCP by submitting polls with badly skewed data.
Their hope was to create their own reality where Romney is trailing badly, and as the election draws near, the pollsters wouldn't have to tweak their sampling much to continue the trend, because conservatives will have lost any sort of enthusiasm.
However -
It seems to have backfired. Polling companies who want to remain in business are adjusting their models to be more accurate, and as a side effect of those adjustments, poll after poll are now showing massive movement toward Romney.That movement is creating conservative enthusiasm which is generating even more movement.
Too bad, primitive pollsters.
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RCP used to be a fairly reliable source of polling data, but since 2010, Democrat pollsters have been 'DUing' RCP by submitting polls with badly skewed data.
(............)
It seems to have backfired. Polling companies who want to remain in business are adjusting their models to be more accurate, and as a side effect of those adjustments, poll after poll are now showing massive movement toward Romney.That movement is creating conservative enthusiasm which is generating even more movement.
Too bad, primitive pollsters.
Big time. The preference cascade we appear to be seeing is, really, of their own creation. They will never understand that though. They will twirl their fingers in the mud and chant: "racissssst".
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Big time. The preference cascade we appear to be seeing is, really, of their own creation. They will never understand that though. They will twirl their fingers in the mud and chant: "racissssst".
It absolutely is - If the primitives and their favorite talking heads hadn't been engaging in this fantasy circle-jerk for the last several months, they probably would have had a better idea about how to effectively derail 'RMoney' - instead, it seems they stepped into their own bear trap.
In other words, it seems the primitives are their own "October Surprise". Too bad...DUmbasses.
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It absolutely is - If the primitives and their favorite talking heads hadn't been engaging in this fantasy circle-jerk for the last several months, they probably would have had a better idea about how to effectively derail 'RMoney' - instead, it seems they stepped into their own bear trap.
In other words, it seems the primitives are their own "October Surprise". Too bad...DUmbasses.
Speaking of October surprises, has anyone seen this tease?
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/octsuprise-com-is-just-one-big-rick-roll-say-farkers/
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Speaking of October surprises, has anyone seen this tease?
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/octsuprise-com-is-just-one-big-rick-roll-say-farkers/
I posted the link to the October surprise site elsewhere. I've seen it linked on several sites, but it could be a Rick Roll.
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Do you have numbers other than these?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
That one shows 206 to 201 Romney. The only other one I've seen was sent to me by my lib buddy and it came from Huffpo. I haven't gone out looking for others either though.
The RCP poll has the muslim leading in eight out of the ten "tossup" states. It counts states like Pennsylvania and Michigan which are realistically moonbat states, as tossups.
Getting from 206 to 270 is going to require a strong continuing shift over the next three weeks. That's maybe doable, but very difficult.
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I posted the link to the October surprise site elsewhere. I've seen it linked on several sites, but it could be a Rick Roll.
I assumed it was a prank, and just discarded the notion of the website altogether.
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The RCP poll has the muslim leading in eight out of the ten "tossup" states. It counts states like Pennsylvania and Michigan which are realistically moonbat states, as tossups.
Getting from 206 to 270 is going to require a strong continuing shift over the next three weeks. That's maybe doable, but very difficult.
Maybe not;
http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-shows-romney-leading-in-blue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UICHI-xPE1o
Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania
KC
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That's exactly what that is--from the Japan one of a couple of years ago.
So's this one:
(http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/498/overrides/japan-earthquake-tsunami-before-after-wave-before_49809_600x450.jpg)
Oh, I didn't notice it. I like the one you posted here better. It is more fitting to what is going to happen.
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Right now, regardless of what any polls say, I've got a good feeling about things. This comes from what I saw in the debates, the talks I've had with everyday working people, and the hatred and fear that the DUmmies are showing toward Romney and his family.
I might be completely wrong, but right now November is looking bright. The one other thing that would really seal the deal for me would be Wee Willie posting an "Obama will win. Bank on it" post.
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You may recall that in the closing stages of the 2008 campaign, polls came out showing McCain pulling into a tie or near tie in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
They even persuaded the McCain campaign to spend resources in states they'd written off.
The Kenyan won both by landslide margins.
New Jersey is a standard blue hellhole state, and Pennsylvania is dominated by hordes of savages in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
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The polls are horseshit, and have been for a long time. Has everyone forgotten the midterms already? Have people forgotten that Carter was going to bury that guy from the chimp movie? To buy this whole close election thing, you have to believe that Obama has basically the same level of support he had in '08. You also have to believe that Romney is not doing substantially better than McCain.
Republican party affiliation is at its highest, or close to it, and Dem affiliation is WAY off from what it was. Take a look at this breakdown (http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition/). We have the election, and I believe Obama has been doomed for a long time.
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The polls are horseshit, and have been for a long time. Has everyone forgotten the midterms already? Have people forgotten that Carter was going to bury that guy from the chimp movie? To buy this whole close election thing, you have to believe that Obama has basically the same level of support he had in '08. You also have to believe that Romney is not doing substantially better than McCain.
Republican party affiliation is at its highest, or close to it, and Dem affiliation is WAY off from what it was. Take a look at this breakdown (http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition/). We have the election, and I believe Obama has been doomed for a long time.
The similarities between now and 1980 are staggering.
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I also have to say that I think a lot of people have grown tired of the 'if you don't vote for the half-white guy you're a racist' meme.
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You may recall that in the closing stages of the 2008 campaign, polls came out showing McCain pulling into a tie or near tie in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
They even persuaded the McCain campaign to spend resources in states they'd written off.
The Kenyan won both by landslide margins.
New Jersey is a standard blue hellhole state, and Pennsylvania is dominated by hordes of savages in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
You may have forgotten what has happened since 2008. The Obama administration has stomped on the nuts of blue collar voters in Western Pennsylvania. The metro areas, that turned out a boatload of voters, have been devastated by the administration.
Black unemployment is massive. Obama's turn to gay marriage has had a large impact on black religious leaders. The left tried to blame Mormons for Prop 8, but it was primarily black voters that turned the tide. The black vote isn't going to move to Romney, but they are not going to turn out like they did.
I firmly believe that Romney would have won even if he was the wooden, detached guy that the media painted him to be. The debates showed America who Romney is. America likes Romney, and the illusion of Obama was demolished. You can't pull the hope and change con twice.
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You may have forgotten what has happened since 2008. The Obama administration has stomped on the nuts of blue collar voters in Western Pennsylvania. The metro areas, that turned out a boatload of voters, have been devastated by the administration.
Black unemployment is massive. Obama's turn to gay marriage has had a large impact on black religious leaders. The left tried to blame Mormons for Prop 8, but it was primarily black voters that turned the tide. The black vote isn't going to move to Romney, but they are not going to turn out like they did.
I firmly believe that Romney would have won even if he was the wooden, detached guy that the media painted him to be. The debates showed America who Romney is. America likes Romney, and the illusion of Obama was demolished. You can't pull the hope and change con twice.
I hope you're right, because if Romney wins Pennsylvania he'll likely win the election.
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I hope you're right, because if Romney wins Pennsylvania he'll likely win the election.
Romney doesn't need to win Pennsylvania, we haven't won it since '88, if I remember correctly. A Romney win is all but inevitable at this point, overall. It has been for a long time, and I feel foolish for buying into what I was being sold. At this point, it is all about making the win as large as possible.
The dems and the media establishment have overplayed their hand from the beginning of Obama's presidency. A fact that I missed about the dem convention was that it was branded entirely with the Obama logo. The dems went all in on Obama, and their surrogates in the media have done it too. Many more people watched the debates than the establishment expected. The first debate, especially, was an enormous disaster. Look at where the blame was laid.
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Speaking of October surprises, has anyone seen this tease?
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/18/octsuprise-com-is-just-one-big-rick-roll-say-farkers/
Omaha Steve devastated. Blames neckbeard.
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The polls are horseshit, and have been for a long time. Has everyone forgotten the midterms already? Have people forgotten that Carter was going to bury that guy from the chimp movie? To buy this whole close election thing, you have to believe that Obama has basically the same level of support he had in '08. You also have to believe that Romney is not doing substantially better than McCain.
Republican party affiliation is at its highest, or close to it, and Dem affiliation is WAY off from what it was. Take a look at this breakdown (http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition/). We have the election, and I believe Obama has been doomed for a long time.
That's a good point. I first heard that ....hell, over two months ago, and at that time, (R) enthusiasm was something like 16-20% above the (D)Umbsh*ts. Then, it got hushed up (surprise, surprise). I feel real good about the trend and I do think we have this. The Blamestream® Marxists suppressed the actual number for so long, that the wave looks huge.
Just hate being overconfident.
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I hope you're right, because if Romney wins Pennsylvania he'll likely win the election.
Don't be so worried...Romney has momentum. People started paying attention about the time of the first debate, which Romney clearly won. And, they were able to form their opinion of him based on his own words, deeds and accomplishments instead of the lying negative bullshit the boy king's campaign has been spinning. Look at the size of the viewers in the first debate. People are engaged because they don't like what's going on in their country. It may not be the same intense enthusiasm as the midterms but there's enthusiasm nonetheless.
Pundits, inside the beltway types who rarely get out of their bubble say it's gonna be close but I just don't think so. The crowds at Romney events IN SWING STATES are surging to ridiculously huge amounts (in one small town in Ohio, almost half the town's population showed up) while the First Wookie's husband's have been small, lackluster affairs. Libya and the cluster **** the administration created for themselves, his debate performances (even in this last one which most people thought Romney won on the economy), the bold-faced, obvious lies he actually thinks he can get away with when directly talking to the American people...this is a man who's used to having the media filter protecting him, hard to do that in a debate or campaign speeches...the regime has created their own October surprise.
In many ways, Romney is the perfect candidate for us (and he's actually been talking like a Constitutional conservative) because he's so damned squeaky clean there's no dirt to dig up. We have a very conservative House so holding his feet to the fire will be their first priority. And I don't think Romney will be afraid to use the bully pulpit, a la Reagan and Clinton. So, even if we don't take the senate that creepy rat-faced bastard, Harry Reed won't be able to simply not bring bills to the floor. People realize the huge mistake they made in 2008 and won't repeat it. We ARE a right-of-center country. We forget sometimes because the media, where the majority of citizens get their news, is constantly promoting left wing propaganda. But remember, they're now less trusted than labor unions. 0bama's election and the complete disaster he's been, has been a HUGE wake-up call. Doesn't matter what the media says, America feels the pain he's caused to this country and her people. Bet it's even an early night on November 6th.
Cindie
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Bet it's even an early night on November 6th.
I'm guessing about 9:00 p.m. central time.
Kentucky for some odd reason always seems to be the first state to report; I wonder why that is, and wish some of these blue states would emulate Kentucky.
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That's a good point. I first heard that ....hell, over two months ago, and at that time, (R) enthusiasm was something like 16-20% above the (D)Umbsh*ts. Then, it got hushed up (surprise, surprise). I feel real good about the trend and I do think we have this. The Blamestream® Marxists suppressed the actual number for so long, that the wave looks huge.
Just hate being overconfident.
Yup, it does . . .
(http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/japan_before_after/bp2_off.jpg)
The Japan tsunami is going to have nuthin' on November 6th. :tongue: :yahoo: O-)
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I loved hearing this statement from Paul Ryan because it's so simple yet true.
“He didn’t offer any new [ideas] on how the next four years will be any different than the last four years,†Ryan said.
4 more years of the same
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Cindie
:blowkiss:
:hi5:
:bow:
^5
KC
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http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/20/PPP-Keeps-Obamas-Ohio-Lead-with-D-8-Sample?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BigGovernment+%28Big+Government%29
PPP: With D+8 Sample, Romney Down One in Ohio; Leads Obama on Libya Trust
Assuming an increase from 2008's D+5 turnout to D+8, Public Policy Polling has Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by one point in Ohio's presidential race, 49/48.
Party ID breakdown among Ohio voters in 2008 was 37.5% Democrat, 32.5% Republican, and 30% Independent. A PPP survey released Saturday assumes an electorate that's 42% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 23% Independent in 2012.
That means PPP projects indies' representation in the electorate will drop 24% and Democrats' will jump 12% compared to four years ago. The independents polled here lean to Romney by seven points (49/42).
Despite the thumb on the scale for Obama, there's plenty of good news for Romney. Even with this sample makeup, he continues to lead on the issue of the economy (51/47) with a 15-point lead among independents (54/39). And, in a reversal from the previous week, more voters in this sample trust him over Obama on the issue of Libya (49/47). 18% of Democrats said they trusted Romney more on Libya, while independents broke narrowly for Obama (48/45).
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Early voting in Ohio:
http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage
GOP voters flock to early ballots
“In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties,†he said. “What this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and I’m predicting a total shift from 2008.â€
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I tend be a bit stingy about H5's and BS's.
Let it be known, that Delila has a H5 just for the siggy about Anne and "burned into my memory" kerry.
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Let's hope that's true. This thing could be over by 10 pm Central.
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How does it make sense for them to assume higher 'rat turnout now than they had in 2008 when Obozo fever was at its crest? Republican enthusiasm was higher than the 'rats in 2010 in the midterms, which are never higher turnout than a presidential election. Why in the world would they think that 'rat turnout this election will not only be higher than 2010, but even higher than 2008 when the entire 'rat party (including a lot of new voters, and people who don't usually bother) were high on smoke and hype? It was like a mass national delusion-nothing like that is remotely probable this election. If anything, even the 'rat regulars are probably somewhat dispirited, the ones who merely jumped on Obozo's bandwagon for that one moment when he was the Second Coming (Grecian columns and all) are hardly likely to bother now. So how do they think it's realistic to project even larger turnout for Obozo than he got in 2008?
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/20/PPP-Keeps-Obamas-Ohio-Lead-with-D-8-Sample?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BigGovernment+%28Big+Government%29
PPP: With D+8 Sample, Romney Down One in Ohio; Leads Obama on Libya Trust
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Let's hope that's true. This thing could be over by 10 pm Central.
Now THAT would be awesome. It that happened, I'd see if I could get off work on the 7th. The Democratic Underground would be beside themselves if/when "RMoney" wins, but if it's over quick?
:rotf:
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This stat has been up and solid for a few days now. The DUmp has been having a great time with it's pretend polls. But Gallup is consistently showing a strong lead for Romney. That spells doom for the Diebold theory.
Pity the poor sods at DU. They really won't have a leg to stand on when they lose on the 6th.
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In 2008 I absolutely did not believe the polls. None of them. In 2008 I was sorely disappointed. The polls are real whether you believe them or not. The major players anyway.
KC
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Now THAT would be awesome. It that happened, I'd see if I could get off work on the 7th. The Democratic Underground would be beside themselves if/when "RMoney" wins, but if it's over quick?
:rotf:
Hell, where I work, there's moonbats everywhere. I can't wait to go into work in the first few days after Romney wins! :yahoo: :tongue: :fuelfire:
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ABC says the race is tied. Martha Radditz said she can't believe Romney agreed to a FP debate for the last debate.
GMA is delusional.
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ABC says the race is tied. Martha Radditz said she can't believe Romney agreed to a FP debate for the last debate.
GMA is delusional.
Radditz is one fugly moonbat. Romney will rip obama apart tonight. obama has the worst foreign policy record since Jimmy Carter.
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I really can't wait for tonights debate. I bet Obama has some one liners that are going to try to sting. Man, this is going to be brutal