The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: Freeper on October 05, 2012, 08:47:54 PM
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flyguyjake (264 posts)
7.8% Unemployement - Right Hook!
(http://i49.tinypic.com/9h2ypz.jpg)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021481102
Once again I will say it, in 2009 UE at 7.8% was great depression level, now in 2012 we should be dancing in the street for 7.8%?
Vietnameravet (246 posts)
1. I think this was the October surprise that we expected...
sure surprised the hell out of the right wing fantasy dwellers!
Didn't surprise me in the least, I knew they were going to fudge the numbers this month and go under the 8% mark.
flyguyjake (264 posts)
2. Oh but the "Chicago Mob" hijacked the numbers!!!
WTF??? So the numbers were OK, just as long as they stayed above 8% see... **** off Repubes
No those numbers were misleading too, we have been saying for years now that UE is higher than the 0bama media is reporting.
This is what happens when you have the media in the tank, you can release phony numbers and people will believe it.
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.....you can release phony numbers and people will believe it.
But really, other than the primitives, who's going to believe it?
Reality trumps fantasy.
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Just like the polls, the numbers are all fixed, and the numbers for this month will put it back up to 8.3% in November. Watch the DUmmies scream scam with that one.
If you look at the jobs created for the past couple of months. Sept. was one of the lowest months, so there is no way that the rate went down .3% without fixing the numbers. Even the economists are saying such...
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Just like the polls, the numbers are all fixed, and the numbers for this month will put it back up to 8.3% in November. Watch the DUmmies scream scam with that one.
If you look at the jobs created for the past couple of months. Sept. was one of the lowest months, so there is no way that the rate went down .3% without fixing the numbers. Even the economists are saying such...
Where they really blew it was reporting 144k new jobs and 873k new hires.
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Where they really blew it was reporting 144k new jobs and 873k new hires.
Yeah, adding the 800,000 self employed people is what did them in.
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Only 7.8% are unemployed, all of whom I have seen naked.
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Too bad for them no president since FDR has been re-elected with UE over 7.2%
Hmmmmm, that would mean they'd have to fudge roughly 3M more "self-employed" to get that much improvement. Don't think anyone will buy that one.
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Yeah, adding the 800,000 self employed people is what did them in.
Kinda like cheating on a test, if you usually get 70% on a test and all of a sudden you get 100%....... :rotf:
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Poor DUmbasses. No one is buying those bogus numbers. Not even some in the MSM. A lot of folks are laughing at Obama's blatant attempt to take them for fools.
Obama would have been better off with the honest numbers being reported. People are laughing at him.
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Give it a week or a bit more and the "revised" numbers will come out. And for some odd reason they always seem to go up. :whatever:
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Too bad for them no president since FDR has been re-elected with UE over 7.2%
Hmmmmm, that would mean they'd have to fudge roughly 3M more "self-employed" to get that much improvement. Don't think anyone will buy that one.
The dummies will!!!! :cheersmate:
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The dummies will!!!! :cheersmate:
Should have said no one with a brain would buy that one...
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Should have said no one with a brain would buy that one...
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Kinda like cheating on a test, if you usually get 70% on a test and all of a sudden you get 100%....... :rotf:
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They gave obama the biggest curve in test history.
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Should have said no one with a brain would buy that one...
:lmao:
My goal on this site is to someday reach the level of you Zinger Jedi Masters.
^5
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Unfortunantly the real unemployment number, in the report that counts everyone who is unemployed or underemployed, is over 14%, not the "rosey" 7.8% the media is reporting..
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Unfortunantly the real unemployment number, in the report that counts everyone who is unemployed or underemployed, is over 14%, not the "rosey" 7.8% the media is reporting..
Yup the Dept of Labor claims it to be 14%
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I have been following unemployment reports since 2008. I've never once thought that there was faked data in it. In fact, I'd usually be the first to admonish conservatives for accusing the data of being rigged.
There's a reason for the outrage today. What happened in today's report was nothing short of shame, and a lot of smart & nominally apolitical people recognize it.
Why? It comes down to: there was only one way to manipulate the unemployment rate with (A) it being still believable, and (B) without the market reacting negatively to it. Let's go over several ways first, to give you an idea...
The most superficial idea for tweaking the job numbers up would be just to fabricate the full time employment numbers from scratch. However, there is a fairly solid grounding of science and independent corroborations that would have pointed out the sudden creation of 850K payroll jobs to be bull. 850K job creation is consistent with a roaring economy in excess of 5% GDP growth, not with an economy with lowering consumer sentiment, slowing GDP growth, dropping manufacturing orders, and so on. So one can't really go too far by lying about the full-time jobs numbers.
Another idea is to approach the unemployment rate from the denominator part of the equation rather than numerator. This, of course, refers to labor force shrinkage, which most of us should be familiar with. While easier to pass off than just increasing the number of full-time jobs out there, labor force shrinkage is well correlated with slowing or negative GDP growth, and if the unemployment drop had been precipitated by this approach, they would have had to shrink the labor force by millions, and this would've resulted in a market panic.
So what's an Obama administration to do? They take the unscientific survey that is not taken seriously in economic evaluations, and conveniently find that many hundreds of thousands of jobs were created from part-time employment. If I were trying to engineer a big drop in unemployment while arousing minimal suspicion & churn, this is exactly how I would've done it. Very convenient.
Some websites are claiming that part-time jobs do not really get counted towards the payroll statistics, implying that you have to work a certain number of hours to get counted, hence accounting for the discrepancy between the payroll and household surveys. This is, and pardon my language, bullshit. If one is on a payroll, one is considered to have a job under the guidelines of BLS payroll survey, no matter the hours he or she worked.
The fact remains that the job report is claiming that for every one job created, eight people gained employment. There have been gaps before due to volatileness, but none nearly this much in my memory, and most of all, none so convenient, in both timing and internals of how the data was put forward.
The only honest way I can think that these statistics could have been derived is if they changed their household survey questioning to include people pawning items online as part-time merchants or something similar, but even then, a honest organization should have reported such significant changes in data gathering.
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I have a theory that the 873,000 Household survey additions came from the new way welfare/work is measured. Under the new rules, you are considered "working" if you --- Join Weight Watchers, enroll in smoking cessation, help a friend clean their house, get a massage, get counseling etc, etc, etc, (I'd have to pull up the PDF). IOW, it's horseshit.
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The fact that Democrats are reacting to this news with such glee is a good indication of how deep in doodoo they know they are.
People don't internalize numbers well. To me, 7.8% doesn't mean anything different than 8.1%. It's not like I know of people who have gotten off food stamps, SSDI, and unemployment.
All this overreaction reminds me of grasping to the last strand on a breaking rope.
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I have a theory that the 873,000 Household survey additions came from the new way welfare/work is measured. Under the new rules, you are considering "working" if you --- Join Weight Watchers, enroll in smoking cessation, help a friend clean their house, get a massage, get counseling etc, etc, etc, (I'd have to pull up the PDF). IOW, it's horseshit.
Post when/if you find it again, please.
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Post when/if you find it again, please.
Exactly--I'd love to see that, too.
Another thing--just who the deuce would choose to start a business in the current climate, knowing that the Dems are doing almost everything they can to discourage such activity (through use of Obamacare and the tax code)?
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But really, other than the primitives, who's going to believe it?
Reality trumps fantasy.
See that's the thing. The media can spin and dance, but when you are living it you see through the bullshit.
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Post when/if you find it again, please.
It is possible.
http://www.lsnc.net/fact_sheets/new_wtw_rules.pdf
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Jack Welch to Chris Matthews:
I don't see anything in the economy that shows these surges are true the 873,000 jobs in the household survey is the strongest economy since 1983?
Annoy a Conservative by lying to them, annoy a liberal by telling them the truth
Do you guys ever get tired of being lied to or being duped?
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From another website:
On Cavuto. After the initial excitement of the sci fi 7.8% unemployment figure released by Obama, the market took a second look at the background figures and decided that Obama is lying. Market then gave-back most of the day's gains, realizing that both the employment and the domestic product numbers are terrible.
I was watching the currency markets when the numbers were released this morning at 0830 EST.
Normally, a change of even 0.1% in the US Unemployment Number will send the currency pairs into huge gyrations, and especially those associated with the US Dollar. The effect may last for hours and rocket prices to new highs/lows - or the massive fluctuations may take the currencies a half hour or so to settle back down to somewhat "normal" behavior. Today? Hardly a blip. It was astounding!
The obvious answer is, the shocking numbers didn't fool anybody (except DU). Everybody all over the globe knew they were phony and acted accordingly. The entire financial world is onto this scam.
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They were reporting on this on ABC (All Barack Channel) during an insert on the 5 o'clock "news" and the media babe (name slips my mind, nor do I really care) reporting the story was giddy as all get out about this news regarding her savior 0bama. Absolutely nauseating...
To the lurking DUmmies... And you losers piss and moan about Fox being biased! ::)
Reality Check!
(oh wait you are DUmmies, reality is one of the LAST things you can deal with. Carry on. :bird:)
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I have been following unemployment reports since 2008. I've never once thought that there was faked data in it. In fact, I'd usually be the first to admonish conservatives for accusing the data of being rigged.
The reality is yes it is rigged, the part that we hate to bring up is that this rigging is bi partisan. Both parties have used this technique for years when they are in power to make things look just a little better than they really are by only reporting only the people "still looking for jobs". Up til now it has been just slightly fudging the numbers because we haven't seen an economy this bad. Now that the economy is in the crapper when they use this technique it is being seriously fudged. Then we got to yesterday and all of a sudden 873k people magically found work with job gains of 144k.