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Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2012 => Topic started by: Splashdown on September 24, 2012, 08:32:33 PM

Title: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: Splashdown on September 24, 2012, 08:32:33 PM: It's Obama 47-45

It's a D +6 spread (49-43), with 8% Undecideds.

Some pretty interesting data here, if you're into PA as a battleground state.

Link (http://triblive.com/csp/mediapool/sites/dt.common.streams.StreamServer.cls?STREAMOID=mBlESMz8$zUN6sU0weF2Q5M5tm0Zxrvol3sywaAHBAmGhMMg$Mp1k$Y1ptGldkafE0$uXvBjavsllACLNr6VhLEUIm2tympBeeq1Fwi7sIigrCfKm_F3DhYfWov3omce$8CAqP1xDAFoSAgEcS6kSQ--&CONTENTTYPE=application/pdf&CONTENTDISPOSITION=PTR-ToplinesStatewide-092412.pdf)
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: BigTex on September 24, 2012, 09:59:52 PM: I dont see PA as a battleground state. Sure Romney could win it but if he did it would almost certainly mean that he won Ohio, Virginia and Florida and already has the necessary 270
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: pandric on September 25, 2012, 12:18:56 AM: This poll was "commissioned by the Republican State Committee." http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-21/news/33978421_1_dead-heat-gop-poll-new-poll

The fact that Obama's PA lead in all polls not commissioned by the Republican Party is larger is merely a coincidence.
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM: Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 12:18:56 AM
This poll was "commissioned by the Republican State Committee." http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-21/news/33978421_1_dead-heat-gop-poll-new-poll

The fact that Obama's PA lead in all polls not commissioned by the Republican Party is larger is merely a coincidence.

Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: DefiantSix on September 25, 2012, 09:11:05 AM: Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM
Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.
You mean other than the poll didn't claim that Ron Paul was expected to be a come from behind, dark horse winnah, and that his victory in Pennsylvania would so ~~upset~~ embolden the rest of the Electoral College that they'd cast their votes for Dr. Nutz to raucous applause (and cops jumping out of bushes in all 50 states to certify The Ronulan Leader's victory).

Other than that? Nothing. Nothing's wrong with this poll. :thatsright:

:rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf: :rotf:
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: pandric on September 25, 2012, 10:23:21 AM: Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM
Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.

The pollster assumes that 2012 will be like 2004, as if pollsters were supposed to make such assumptions.
http://sprblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/why-our-recent-polling-is-accurate-and-shows-a-close-election-for-president-by-james-lee-president-of-spr/
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: Kyle Ricky on September 25, 2012, 10:28:21 AM: Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 09:01:51 AM
Can you tell me what the poll got wrong, please? Thanks.

They didn't over sample Dems.

Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 10:23:21 AM
The pollster assumes that 2012 will be like 2004, as if pollsters were supposed to make such assumptions.
http://sprblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/why-our-recent-polling-is-accurate-and-shows-a-close-election-for-president-by-james-lee-president-of-spr/

You mean like the MSM ones are assuming 2012 is going to be like 2008? Gothcha.

Romney has a very good chance of winning Pa. And I hope he does.... We all know that Pandric will be voting for his hero the Big Bad O ...
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 11:26:30 AM: Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 10:23:21 AM
The pollster assumes that 2012 will be like 2004, as if pollsters were supposed to make such assumptions.
http://sprblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/why-our-recent-polling-is-accurate-and-shows-a-close-election-for-president-by-james-lee-president-of-spr/

What should the assumption, be, o genious of polling data? :whatever:
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: DefiantSix on September 25, 2012, 11:32:03 AM: Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 11:26:30 AM
What should the assumption, be, o genious of polling data? :whatever:

I believe he prefers the term "Super Genius".

(http://www.bluemagnetinteractive.com/images/stories/blog/mattbitzer_supergenius.jpg)
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: Lacarnut on September 25, 2012, 11:38:41 AM: Romney is going to put an ass whipping on the Magic Negro. He will win Pa and all the battleground states.
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: pandric on September 25, 2012, 12:30:00 PM: Quote from: Splashdown on September 25, 2012, 11:26:30 AM
What should the assumption, be, o genious of polling data? :whatever:

None. No assumptions. Pollsters shouldn't assume things.

On a different note, do you guys think Rasmussen is crazy? His poll released Friday has Obama up by 12% in PA. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president
Title: Re: PA race is pretty tight
Post by: Lacarnut on September 25, 2012, 08:11:21 PM: Quote from: pandric on September 25, 2012, 12:30:00 PM
None. No assumptions. Pollsters shouldn't assume things.

On a different note, do you guys think Rasmussen is crazy? His poll released Friday has Obama up by 12% in PA. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president

Not crazy. Just wrong as homemade sin.