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Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2012 => Topic started by: Chris_ on August 02, 2012, 06:05:50 PM

Title: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
Post by: Chris_ on August 02, 2012, 06:05:50 PM
Quote
Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide

Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts.

And he’s predicting a near-landslide win for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, with Obama losing by about as big a margin in 2012 as he won back in 2008. Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.
James Pethokoukis/AEI (http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/08/economic-forecasting-model-predicts-obama-will-lose-in-near-landslide/)

:popcorn:
Title: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
Post by: EagleKeeper on August 02, 2012, 06:16:59 PM
Funny thing is...

Hibbs is an Obama fan.

But the data is the data.

Quote
The only postwar presidential election results not well explained by the Bread and Peace model are 1996 and 2000.
Title: Re: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
Post by: DLR Pyro on August 02, 2012, 06:20:27 PM
The racism of this country has no boundaries [\DU]
Title: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
Post by: Kyle Ricky on August 02, 2012, 09:34:23 PM
I just looked and Vegas has Romney at +125 to win, and obama at -175 to win. obama is the hands down favorite.
Title: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
Post by: RightCoast on August 02, 2012, 09:39:16 PM
Even the NYT is getting nervous and telling the truth:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/beware-the-jobs-report-of-july/ (http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/beware-the-jobs-report-of-july/)



edit to add I got the off Drudge...I'm not surfing the NYT...
Title: Re: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
Post by: obumazombie on August 02, 2012, 09:40:09 PM
Quote from: DLR Pyro on August 02, 2012, 06:20:27 PM
The racism of this country has no boundaries [\DU]
Yes, therefore "economics" just joined the hit parade as the next banned word.
Title: Re: Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
Post by: Kyle Ricky on August 02, 2012, 10:00:17 PM
Quote from: RightCoast on August 02, 2012, 09:39:16 PM
Even the NYT is getting nervous and telling the truth:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/beware-the-jobs-report-of-july/ (http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/beware-the-jobs-report-of-july/)



edit to add I got the off Drudge...I'm not surfing the NYT...

He will do like he always does and blame it on Bush.