The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: franksolich on April 01, 2012, 12:55:01 AM
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The question for the poll being (since I couldn't jam it all in there): are you more, or less, confident about Steve Dawes winning six weeks hence, than you were last autumn, when he first announced his candidacy?
"Winning" refers to Omaha Steve finishing at least second in the four-man race, to advance to the November ballot. If he advances, he has a nil chance of actually winning election, but that's not the question.
This poll refers to your confidence about the big guy winning in the May 15 primary for the Bellevue City Council, in light of all that's happened since his woefully early and bungled announcement for the office.
Do you think www.electstevedawes.com can bring down the curtain six weeks hence, or are you rather more sure it's going to have to be up for some more months yet?
Last autumn, I figured that with two (R)s and one (L) splitting the votes of decent and civilized people, the big guy stood a reasonable chance of coming in second in the primary, and hence getting onto the ballot in November.
Many here have since become more educated about the people and values of Bellevue, the third-largest city in Nebraska, which lies right underneath behemothic Omaha on the Missouri River.
After becoming illuminated myself (yeah, yeah, yeah, franksolich has been to Bellevue too many times to count, but hey, nobody pays attention to Bellevue; it's just a city on the way to Omaha), I revised my expectations for the big guy downward, figuring at best he'd come in third.
Now, I'm not so confident of even those lesser expectations.
Realistically, I expect the two (R) candidates are going to fight it out through November; it's very sad about the (L) candidate, who seems a nice guy who really wants to win, but really, he doomed himself with this third-party nonsense. If he'd accept the practical realities of the world, he'd make a fine outstanding (R) candidate, and possibly even win--but he may yet appear on the November ballot, finishing second in the primary.
It depends upon why an (R) challenger is running against the (R) incumbent, and I don't know why, myself. Upon that, the fate of the (L) candidate lies. If the differences between the two (R) candidates are minor, probably both will advance. But if there's some differences of significance, the (L) candidate might slip in between the two.
That is probably upon which the big guy had counted, that he himself could slip in between the two (R)s, coming in second, and thus appearing on the November ballot. But the big guy blew all that away, because he didn't take the advice and counsel of his fellow Nebraskan franksolich, instead doing all these really stupid things.
I used to be reasonably confident the big guy would come in third (thus missing the November ballot), but now I'm more confident he's going to come in fourth in this four-man race for two spots.
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Seriously Frank? I more or less don't really give a ****. He's not gonna win.
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He's dead, Jim.
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Seriously Frank? I more or less don't really give a ****. He's not gonna win.
Of course he has no chance to win in November.
But I'm hoping the big guy loses in the primary, so we don't have to work with him clear to November, instead being able to close up the Omaha Steve shop and move on to another primitive candidate after May 15.
I want to avoid the debacle of last year in the DUmpster, which nadin dominated all year long.
Our "market"--the audience of the DUmpster--likes variety in the primitives presented them.
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I voted "somewhat less".
OS can't win without taking his message to the people of ward 1 in Bellevue, NE. OS needs to be where the people go to shop on Saturdays, set up a table and a banner with his name on it and talk to anyone and everyone that stops by.
Setting out flyers at the register of a few stores ain't gonna cut it. I'm almost ready to go back to my original prediction that OS will finish fifth in a four man race, right behind "Anybody but these guys" write in.
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I chose the (I'm adding a letter to the acronym) AYFKM? option. I think OS is trying to winnow his way into the "stolen election" meme, myself. That way, he'll get sympathy--and possibly money to hire "ninja lawyers"--from the DUmb****s.
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I voted "somewhat less".
OS can't win without taking his message to the people of ward 1 in Bellevue, NE. OS needs to be where the people go to shop on Saturdays, set up a table and a banner with his name on it and talk to anyone and everyone that stops by.
Setting out flyers at the register of a few stores ain't gonna cut it. I'm almost ready to go back to my original prediction that OS will finish fifth in a four man race, right behind "Anybody but these guys" write in.
Ditto.
I was giving him a 50% chance until I saw his non-campaign.
1) Steve is NOT going door to door.
2) His flyer is wasted on a non-issue, and the voters STILL know nothing about what Steve will do.
3) What Tanstaafl said: Steve is not talking to the voters.
Its all over on May 15th for Steve, and then its back to attempting the disability scam. This time he's gonna have to convince the police he's unable to work, and they won't be pushovers like the City of Omaha.
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Ditto.
I was giving him a 50% chance until I saw his non-campaign.
1) Steve is NOT going door to door.
2) His flyer is wasted on a non-issue, and the voters STILL know nothing about what Steve will do.
3) What Tanstaafl said: Steve is not talking to the voters.
Its all over on May 15th for Steve, and then its back to attempting the disability scam. This time he's gonna have to convince the police he's unable to work, and they won't be pushovers like the City of Omaha.
I've been thinking, maybe poor OS is afraid to actually face any voters in his ward.
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I've been thinking, maybe poor OS is afraid to actually face any voters in his ward.
I think its laziness. Its a union trait. If Steve were industrious, he would never be a union man.
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Frank, he came dead last in a vote amongst his own people, union people. Not only that, but the frontrunner in that election lost in the ruoff after he threw his support behind her. His flyers just bloviate some non-issue.
The only way he'll get any votes is thanks to the good people at www.electstevedawes.com
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Just spent some time over at the Bellevue newspaper's site. I noticed that there is (or were) a lot of public gatherings. An excellent chance for a novice politician to get out and meet the people he will need to vote for him (or her). A chance to get his message out. Get his name and aspirations in the press. Show the voters in Bellevue's ward 1 that Steve Dawes is a man of action, a man with a plan and a roadmap to achieve those plans.
But, before I went there, I stopped by the DUmp to see if there was any posting activity from my favorite city council contender. To my surprise, OS had been up all night to post three or four C&P articles at around 2 to 4 AM. Guess that means ol' Steve-O will wile away the day snoozing instead of actually doing any politicing at the Parks in Bellevue. And he'll miss church too, this morning.
What a putz.
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Just spent some time over at the Bellevue newspaper's site. I noticed that there is (or were) a lot of public gatherings. An excellent chance for a novice politician to get out and meet the people he will need to vote for him (or her). A chance to get his message out. Get his name and aspirations in the press. Show the voters in Bellevue's ward 1 that Steve Dawes is a man of action, a man with a plan and a roadmap to achieve those plans.
But, before I went there, I stopped by the DUmp to see if there was any posting activity from my favorite city council contender. To my surprise, OS had been up all night to post three or four C&P articles at around 2 to 4 AM. Guess that means ol' Steve-O will wile away the day snoozing instead of actually doing any politicing at the Parks in Bellevue. And he'll miss church too, this morning.
What a putz.
Someone mentioned that same thing a while ago. The answer surprised me.
Apparently, Steve may actually be afraid to be seen standing and walking all day (like at a campaign event). He has spent so much time off work with false disability claims that reports of his performing normal healthy activities may result in his getting fired, and possible JAIL time for fraud.
The disability scam gravy train is the preferred lifestyle for union workers and DUmmies everywhere.
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The poor sap can't generate any excitement, even among his socialist comrades with his posts at DU.
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Someone mentioned that same thing a while ago. The answer surprised me.
Apparently, Steve may actually be afraid to be seen standing and walking all day (like at a campaign event). He has spent so much time off work with false disability claims that reports of his performing normal healthy activities may result in his getting fired, and possible JAIL time for fraud.
The disability scam gravy train is the preferred lifestyle for union workers and DUmmies everywhere.
I'm starting to get some bad 'vibes' that Steverino doesn't want to win. He may just be trying to improve his DUmmie cred with his fellow slackers at the DUmp. What a shame. All it would take is a few e-mails to the paper, show up at one of the many weekend events they have in Bellevue, heck even in a wheelchair! Press the flesh type of thing. Kiss a few babies, make a pass by the old ladies' table. Instead we get flyers left by registers and a secret sauce that's gonna be applied sometime in late April. And OS ossifying in bed on Easter Sunday. If there were an entry in the Dictionary for "Local Political Joke", Ol' Stevie's picture would be there.
I dig this kinda crap. Reminds me of the underdog days of highschool when I ran for class treasurer my freshman year because I was new to the school and had no real friends yet. Had figured I'd meet some of the other kids that way. And I won. Don't know if that helped me, but people knew me. Since our class never had any money, it was an easy job. Lost the position after the Great Donut Scandal of 1969. Good times, good times
If I was still in Council Bluffs IA, I would be dragging his butt all over town. Anywhere there were two or more pipples gathered. Loudspeakers blaring the campaign song. And a "meet and greet" at a bar? Nice snatch of the alcholic bloc. Bet his take at that won't exceed $50, if Marta chips in.
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I'm starting to get some bad 'vibes' that Steverino doesn't want to win.
That's been something I've wondered about for four months now, when the big guy kept doing all these things counterproductive to his campaign. But back in January, he hadn't even yet done some other even stupider things.
And apparently members here agreed with me, in this poll:
"is Omaha Steve serious?"
http://www.conservativecave.com/index.php/topic,68402.0/viewResults.html
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Steve Dawes isn't the junior of a well-repsected man in the community and therefore able to trade on his name and running against opponents that have pissed off a good number of constituents in his district. That means he has no chance.
His campaign website isn't regularly or at all updated, it just says things no one cares about it. He should have a running page of his opinions on issues of the day, as well as a list of public appearances and events he will be at. Then he must be on the campaign trail, knocking on doors and talking and listening to anyone. He really doesn't want to win is the only conclusion I can think of.
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That's been something I've wondered about for four months now, when the big guy kept doing all these things counterproductive to his campaign. But back in January, he hadn't even yet done some other even stupider things.
And apparently members here agreed with me, in this poll:
"is Omaha Steve serious?"
http://www.conservativecave.com/index.php/topic,68402.0/viewResults.html
My guess is he did the math, well had someone do it for him, and decided that the SSDI was worht more per month than the part time stipend that the City Council pays.
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His campaign website isn't regularly or at all updated, it just says things no one cares about it. He should have a running page of his opinions on issues of the day, as well as a list of public appearances and events he will be at.
True, however I must caution that the internet, while it does have an effect on elections in mellow, laid-back, nonchalant "cultures" such as that in Nebraska, it doesn't have a large impact.
It's important to get the word out about his site, www.electstevedawes.com, but it's hardly going to play a really big role in his campaign. I dunno where the traffic comes from, that goes to that site friends of the big guy set up for him because he was doing such a lousy job on his own, but of course I can detect where the traffic comes from, here on conservativeunderground and in the DUmpster.
There's been quite a few "guests" going specifically to the DUmpster, and even more specifically to the Omaha Steve threads, with ISPs emanating out of Omaha, Council Bluffs, Missouri Valley, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista, Ralston, Ashland, &c., but how many are actually voters in Bellevue Ward 1, one has no idea.
More important are public reputation and personal contact.
Being new to Bellevue, the big guy probably has no public reputation, good or bad.
Then he must be on the campaign trail, knocking on doors and talking and listening to anyone.
This is probably his biggest asset; the big guy talks good, in person, being a hail-fellow-well-met.
The big guy comes across as being friendly and personable, even to utter strangers.
So the first impression is good, but the longer one knows him, the more one realizes that's all the big guy is; good talk, but no deeds to back up that talk. He talks much, but does little if anything at all. Unfortunately, the first impression is the only impression most in Bellevue Ward 1 will get of him.
That's a great (albeit deceitful) attribute to have and many professional politicians have taken advantage of it, if they had it themselves, this gift of gab and banter.
However, the big guy seems to be lethargic, lazy, and despite this gift of his, isn't out a whole lot among the public, using it; he himself overestimates the importance of the internet to his campaign.
He really doesn't want to win is the only conclusion I can think of.
Uh huh.
It's possible that at one time--say last summer and autumn--the big guy entertained fantasies about having an office in city hall, being able to sit around personally skimming ten bucks off each city-issued license, twenty-five bucks off each city-issued building permit, and 10% off each municipal construction contract, just as the Democrats do in Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, St. Louis, &c., &c., &c.
But even Omaha's corrupt Democrat machine (such as it is) is nowhere near as bad as that, and Bellevue of course is much cleaner than Omaha. I think he knows now that the pickings would be mighty slim, if at all.
So it's possible the big guy's beginning to regret his impulsive decision.
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Some more unsolicited political advise for the bearded blunderer from Bellevue:
He should start a relationship, post haste, with somebody at the paper. Instead of doing anything with that train wreck of a web page he has going, have his newfound buddy get a "Steve Dawes will be at: ______". column going every week, Keep it updated with his stand on current issues that are on the table, or on the horizon, for the city council and spell out what he would do on such and such issue. Hand out praise to other council members (but not your opponent - keep his name out of it) if they vote the way you would have, ingratiate yourself to the mayor or city manager (whichever form of goverment Bellevue has), and go to the council meetings (don't talk, just take notes). Get out there, show Bellevue what kind of man you are, at least if you're not gonna brag up you Socialism tendencies.
This would be so easy, easier than pie or hitting the Iggy button. Heck, it would be even better if OS would pick a gathering and show up bawling. Go for the sympathy vote. I swear, if OS loses this thing, I might have to to make a detour on my next Prairie Dog and Coyote Safari just to stop by Bellevue and slap him.
I think I would make one heck of a puppetmaster in Bellvue. Definitely as good as Kramer at Lake Buena Vista, Phase Two!
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There's a fair chance the weeper will get on the ballot because of the vote split for the others.
After that..loserville express.
Can't wait to see the meltdown after the regular election.
a. Will the DUmp turn into a pack of dogs and savage him?
b. Wll the weeper go on a diet?
c. Will his wife secrectly laugh at him behind his back?
d. other
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I voted 'less'. After seeing seeing socialist Steve's website he set up for himself (not the good one the friends of socialist Steve Dawes set up at www.electstevedawes.com), and then that awful flyer yesterday, I can't help but think he's reduced his chances.
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OS can't win without taking his message to the people of ward 1 in Bellevue, NE. OS needs to be where the people go to shop on Saturdays, set up a table and a banner with his name on it and talk to anyone and everyone that stops by.
Well, there you have a real Catch-22, don't you?
If Socialist Steve takes his message to the people, about his lifelong devotion to socialism, or his belief that the purpose of government is to provide union-protected employment, he will be destroyed.
If he meets a lot of people in person, they'll get a gander at his sweaty, hairy, unkempt, sloven appearance, and hear his crude, ungrammatical delivery.
His best bet is to go into hiding, after using DUmpmonkey money to hire a conservative actor to pose as "Steve Dawes" for the duration of the campaign.
If he's honest, he's as dead as innocent li'l Trayvon.
www.electstevedawes.com
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I voted 'less'. After seeing seeing socialist Steve's website he set up for himself (not the good one the friends of socialist Steve Dawes set up at www.electstevedawes.com), and then that awful flyer yesterday, I can't help but think he's reduced his chances.
His first web-site was probably pretty much free, Charlene or Charlotte of the Sarpy County Democrats probably setting it up for him.
His second web-site, www.electstevedawes.com, obviously was free; a gift to the big guy from his friends.
So we're not talking a whole lot of, if any, money here.
But those flyers ran into some serious green--not to mention the expense of 0bamagasoline going back-and-forth between Bellevue and Lincoln a few times, and paying the Omaha World-Herald an insertion fee.
The big guy alleged he had 10,000 of them made, which probably cost at least a grand, unless his galpal who owns the unionized printing company gave him some breaks, which is cool, okay. (Although the "in-kind" donation of the discount probably has to be reported on his campaign finance reports.)
But okay, a thousand bucks seems reasonable.....but it was a thousand bucks blown away.
In the first place, the flyers were released too early; who's going to remember having seen one in mid-May, when the primary occurs? Does anyone remember a printed insert that was included in their newspapers six weeks ago? Anything specific about it?
In the second place, it's just a lousy flyer; it cites what appears to be a trivial controversy taken from a newspaper editorial; no photograph of the big guy, nothing about what he stands for, nothing about what he's always supported.
And it doesn't even list the better of the big guy's two web-sites, www.electstevedawes.com.
A thousand bucks. With the wind, gone.
I'm sure the big guy could prove equally profligate with the Bellevue city bank-account.
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I'm withholding judgement until he reveals his secret issue in April. :-)
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I'm withholding judgement until he reveals his secret issue in April. :-)
Don't forget, though.
The big guy's fund-raiser is this coming Wednesday, April 4, 5:00-8:00 p.m. at that one bar.
I'm sure we'll hear about it.
I wish I could go myself, but I have a social obligation in Murray, Nebraska, that day, and so can't.
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From reading his posts at http://www.electstevedawes.com/ I never gave the guy a chance of winning.
As stated before, in a 4 man race, he'll come in 5th.
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I'm going for "Are you f***ing kidding me?" When a write in candidate will probably beat him in votes then all one can conclude is that he wants that disability check more then a job. Otherwise as some have posted earlier, he would be going out in public far more often. This campaign is more dead then the proverbial parrot and not as attractive