The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: franksolich on March 26, 2011, 07:56:14 AM
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x739372
Oh my.
There should be no doubt this idea was "borrowed" from another political message-board, but never mind.
Allegedly it's directed against a celebrity on Fox News, but we all know against who it's really directed.
Laxman (67 posts) Fri Mar-25-11 02:17 PM
Original message
Nostra Dumbass
Seers, Soothsayers, Pundits, Prophets & Prognosticators
Man, man your time is sand, your ways are leaves upon the sea, I am the eyes of Nostradamus, all your ways are known to me.-Nostradamus from Past, Present & Future by Al Stewart
Ah, March Madness. Everyone fills out a pool. The TV is filled with endless predictions on the outcome of the tournament. Its just the latest manifestation of our obsession with predicting the future. From idiotic ex-jocks on NFL pre-game shows to bow-tie wearing officious nerds on Sunday morning news shows, our society places an inordinate value on people who ostensibly can predict the future.
The fascination with prescience is probably as old as mankind. You could imagine a bunch of cavemen sitting around one day discussing the latest hunt when someone asks one of his buddies (we'll call him Og) what he thinks. "Og think it going to rain", he says. (a loose translation from ancient Troglodyte) Nobody thinks much of it until 15 minutes later there's a flash of lightning, a crash of thunder and the skies open up. Never mind that they live in a rain forest and it rains every day, they all looked at Og a bit differently from that time forward.
Next thing you know, at dinner a few nights later, someone asks Og what interesting things he thinks might happen in the coming week. Og ponders for a moment then states, "Og think someone from tribe get eaten by a Sabre-tooth Tiger". This causes a bit of a stir around the fire. Sure enough though, a couple of days later, a hapless member of the tribe is dragged away by a hungry Sabre-tooth while grabbing a drink from a nearby stream. Never mind that for as long as there was a tribe, somebody was getting nabbed by a tiger every few weeks. Everybody looked at Og a lot differently from that time forward.
Now Og was feeling his oats. As the tribe prepared to travel to a nearby valley for the annual bison hunt, Og said, "Me think chief lead us into wrong valley for bison hunt". Instead of saying, "Og, we always go to this valley to hunt bison" they all started to look at the chief a little funny. When they arrived at the valley and the bison weren't there there were whispers among the tribe members. Talk of "Why chief hate our tribe so much" and "Me bet chief wasn't even born in same valley as us" started to disseminate among the tribe members. Finally, one of the chief's rivals whacks the chief over the head with an axe and tells everyone, "Og tell us this wrong valley but chief don't listen. Me now chief, we leave here tomorrow".
Now as they're packing up to leave the next day, the bison show up-a day late. Good for the tribe, bad for the old chief. Everyone's so happy and busy hunting bison, nobody thinks about Og's prediction. Instead of questioning Og's powers of prognostication, the new chief figures out that staying on Og's good side could be valuable. Next thing you know, Og is on the A-list. He's hanging with the chief, getting pretty women and eating prime cuts of Mastodon, all the while spewing out whatever wild-ass guess about the future that comes to mind. An industry is born.
History is filled with people who were revered for their apparent abilities in figuring out what will come next. After all, if true, its quite a valuable talent. What has also been true is that when these fonts of knowledge of all-things-to-come state, what is usually the obvious, we hang on every word but hear only what suits us. If we want to be scared, if we want to be right, if we want to look smart ourselves, we pick out only what is most useful, ignore the rest and most assuredly forget whatever parts turned out not to be true.
From Mayan calendars to Nostradamus, from Biblical prophets to talk show pundits, people cling to the words of self-important predictors of the future hoping to hear something that comports with their particular view of the world. However, with the advent of the 24 hour news cycle this "art" has been raised to a new level. Pontificating talking heads speak of the future with uncanny certainty. Predictions for political benefit have replaced and drowned out any solid fact-based intelligent policy debate. Even our politicians get in on the act.
You would hope that there would be a popular demand for better. A call for intelligent discourse to replace the blather. There is just too much money and too much popularity in this industry to rationally hope for better. You can always hope that there might be some kind of popular awakening that could allow for us to progress as a society. Sadly, my prediction is that it won't happen. Og probably wouldn't think so either.
Festivito (1000+ posts) Sat Mar-26-11 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
18. Welcome to DU. Nice writing.
Oh, and don't let the obtuse posters deter you. Their methods of disruption are too oft effective. Atten-hut!
But, on to the joys and pitfalls of prognostication.
Do you know who and what to believe? Let me tell a joke:
Do you know the difference between a smart man and a brilliant man? You see a smart man knows half of what he hears is not true. The brilliant man, well, he, he knows which half.
Sometimes in my life I've felt brilliant, but, too many times, I haven't even been smart.
On to Og.
There are real Ogs in the world. People who can read the signs, determine the concept of seasons before its common knowledge era, the meaning of a red night sky, the ramifications of a circling eagle, and with that thinking and intuition -- predict. Then there are those who want to believe they are just as capable as that guy. They try. Their new identity and dignity intertwine. Someone lets them continue, not wanting to harm the dignity, which only exacerbates their faux certitude. And, then it becomes something of a mess. Ah, that well-intentioned road to hell...
So, when it comes to listeners of FOX, hearing what they want to hear, I hope for myself that I manage brilliance, but, well, I guess I had better settle for working hard to be a little smart.
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Let me tell you what I got from that.
Obama doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground but if things get better 25 years from now...Obama did it.