The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Economics => Topic started by: dutch508 on August 17, 2010, 03:07:08 PM
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http://www.safehaven.com/article/17836/the-recent-hindenburg-omen-observation
more detail about what Glen Beck was talking about yesterday.
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It wouldn't surprise me if the market did decline a bit or even crash. (I hope it does not!!)
There has been a systematic rhythm with the stock market for the past couple of months that I have noticed. The market always seems to get to about 10,500/10,600 and then it drops back for about a week or so, then goes back up to that percentage and drop back down again. Never really making any gains. That could be because of the anti-capitalist communist in the White House though.
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Baby Boomers are redeeming mutual funds earlier than everyone thought as they are let go 59 1/2 tax free and they are being forced to retire earlier. People who were on the 99 weeks unemployment plan are taking their 401(k)s and taking the tax hit to survive. Fund outflows, even during the DOW ramp-up in July on idiotic nonsense funds, are still having outflows.
The stock market is dependent on the younger generation of having the earning potential of the generation above it. You look at the rise in equities and you tie it to a large educated generation putting money into it as a savings vehicle. At sometime, they are going to redeem it to eat. Add Pension funds (which mostly are insolvent in 5 years) redeeming funds to pay earlier benefits that were anticipated.
I'm not going to get into a generational argument here, or a blame game. Purely economical. Your retirement, is secure in the next generations ability to do better than what you did. We made a shit load of promises we can't keep.
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And yet the market has better security and rate-of-return than that bullshit program known as "Social Security".
But for the record, I'm not putting in jack shit until I 1--pay off my debts, 2--see a long-term improvement in the markets (i.e., the jug-eared one and his minions are out of office.)
When Soros is pulling his money out of the markets, you KNOW bad shit's coming down.
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Baby Boomers are redeeming mutual funds earlier than everyone thought as they are let go 59 1/2 tax free and they are being forced to retire earlier. People who were on the 99 weeks unemployment plan are taking their 401(k)s and taking the tax hit to survive.
Correct. And why is this?!?! In my opinion, LORD ZERO & anti-capitalism play a HUGE part in it.
Zero passed a stimulus bill that would keep unemployment down. Didn't happen, actually, had the adverse affect. More and more people losing jobs and taking out money against their 401k's, like you mentioned above.
Now, taxes are going up to pay for that stupid bill, which was useless to begin with, which causes people even more hardship, leading others to take out money in their 401k's to pay for stuff that were living from paycheck to paycheck on. I can only imagine what happens when the Bush tax cuts are not renewed on January 1st?!!? :o :banghead:
Again, this is just my opinion which I strongly believe. :cheersmate:
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Correct. And why is this?!?! In my opinion, LORD ZERO & anti-capitalism play a HUGE part in it.
Zero passed a stimulus bill that would keep unemployment down. Didn't happen, actually, had the adverse affect. More and more people losing jobs and taking out money against their 401k's, like you mentioned above.
Now, taxes are going up to pay for that stupid bill, which was useless to begin with, which causes people even more hardship, leading others to take out money in their 401k's to pay for stuff that were living from paycheck to paycheck on. I can only imagine what happens when the Bush tax cuts are not renewed on January 1st?!!? :o :banghead:
Again, this is just my opinion which I strongly believe. :cheersmate:
The stock markets value is dependent on either the younger generation buying into it at the rate their parents did to fund their retirements or a foreign entity buying domestic companies.
Frankly number 2 is a huge national security risk. Wage deflation is a huge problem right now, in addition 10% U3 and 16.7% U6 and a real unemployment number hovering around 22% is a recipe for a crash.
Americans act like herd animals, more so than any other nation, I'm highly concerned once the selling starts it won't stop.
As far as the Bush tax cuts, we need a mixture of pain for 5 years in the form of tax increases and spending cuts in order to provide a reasonable chance for the next generation.
Frankly we all racked up that national debt, we should all pitch in to pay the thing off. It is that or hyper inflation eventually.
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The stock markets value is dependent on either the younger generation buying into it at the rate their parents did to fund their retirements or a foreign entity buying domestic companies.
Frankly number 2 is a huge national security risk. Wage deflation is a huge problem right now, in addition 10% U3 and 16.7% U6 and a real unemployment number hovering around 22% is a recipe for a crash.
Americans act like herd animals, more so than any other nation, I'm highly concerned once the selling starts it won't stop.
As far as the Bush tax cuts, we need a mixture of pain for 5 years in the form of tax increases and spending cuts in order to provide a reasonable chance for the next generation.
Frankly we all racked up that national debt, we should all pitch in to pay the thing off. It is that or hyper inflation eventually.
That would be fine... if the politicians would cut spending. They won't. The best thing I can think of is the Fair Tax. It makes everyone have some skin in the game. As it stands right now, a lot of people in this nation do not pay income taxes and a portion actually get money back via the Earned Income Credit. The politicians manipulate the tax code to remain in power. Put the fair tax in and everyone has skin in the game and the politicians lose power. If they need to raise taxes it will be on everybody and they will get tossed out of office so they will cut spending. It is easier to cut welfare spending for the deadbeats when the majority of the country are getting socked with tax increases.
An example: SCHIPS. They taxed the smokers to fund it. So a small portion (around 25 percent) fund an ooh so popular program. I wonder how popular it would be if everyone had to pay for it? I suspect not too popular.
Edited to add the fair tax link cause I am watching VT and Boise State ballgame and was too distracted to put in.
The Fair Tax (http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer)
:beer:
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Oh I agree, the politicians are scumbags and they are that way because of campaign finance.
Frankly the best thing we can do as a nation is cut social spending, provide infrastructure jobs to prepare us economicaly for after the debt crisis is over, and ask everyone to chip in to pay off our debt.
What the politicians want to do is borrow more to fund their ridiculous lifestyles and **** the next generation.
Remember, Keynes is a man who made foolish investments during the depression and lost all his money. It makes sense he would want the government to step in and save his ass. FDR didn't even like him.
Of course even Keynes advocated debt paydown during prosperity. He wasn't totally nuts. Neo-Keynsians believe in constant wealth destruction with inflation.
I can see how our current group of elites love him and his followers who took the next step of constant bailouts.
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As far as the Bush tax cuts, we need a mixture of pain for 5 years in the form of tax increases and spending cuts in order to provide a reasonable chance for the next generation.
Frankly we all racked up that national debt, we should all pitch in to pay the thing off. It is that or hyper inflation eventually.
Spending cuts most definitely but tax increases are counter productive in times of economic recession. The Money is out there but businesses and investors are holding off and waiting to see what the white House and congress are going to do about taxes and health care reform among other things.[justify][/justify]
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Spending cuts most definitely but tax increases are counter productive in times of economic recession. The Money is out there but businesses and investors are holding off and waiting to see what the white House and congress are going to do about taxes and health care reform among other things.[justify][/justify]
I disagree, in our history our best times are times when we came together as a nation and sacrificed for the common good. Tax increases are part of paying off our debt.
Transfer payments should be eliminated in favor of infrastructure project jobs.
If someone is truly destitute due to a God give disability (mental retardation, Schizophrenia, extreme autism) I believe that they should be given access to life giving things and care.
Everyone else should be given the option of working for infrastructure projects or poverty. I'm an accountant, I'm not opposed to doing manual labor in a depression in order to feed myself. Particularly if it is going to build the country.
Frankly we need to mobilize on a state and federal level to compete with the Chinese threat.
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Spending cuts most definitely but tax increases are counter productive in times of economic recession. The Money is out there but businesses and investors are holding off and waiting to see what the white House and congress are going to do about taxes and health care reform among other things.[justify][/justify]
There is way too much uncertainty as to what the socialists in DC are going to come up with next. Businesses are holding on to their money because of that. If the GOP takes over one or both houses of congress then I imagine you will see a CEO or two start to spend trying to grab market share and that just might unleash a wave a hiring.
Businesses do not like uncertainty and the current idiots in DC are blind to that.
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And yet the market has better security and rate-of-return than that bullshit program known as "Social Security".
But for the record, I'm not putting in jack shit until I 1--pay off my debts, 2--see a long-term improvement in the markets (i.e., the jug-eared one and his minions are out of office.)
When Soros is pulling his money out of the markets, you KNOW bad shit's coming down.
Fund outflows. There will be some bargains after the next hit, but not till it goes back to 7000 on the Dow. That is its real value pre-stimulus and I view it as the value it is going back to post stimulus.
It will bankrupt the pension funds when this happens.
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There is way too much uncertainty as to what the socialists in DC are going to come up with next. Businesses are holding on to their money because of that. If the GOP takes over one or both houses of congress then I imagine you will see a CEO or two start to spend trying to grab market share and that just might unleash a wave a hiring.
Businesses do not like uncertainty and the current idiots in DC are blind to that.
If the GOP takes over I imagine a total market crash. Frankly stimulus is the only thing that is keeping a lot of people alive right now. I imagine if the DNC retains the house by a few seats and the Senate by a few seats the same scenario.
Consumers weren't the only ones over charging the credit cards during the recession, and the record cash on the sidelines is businesses socking it away for when the stimulus bill expired.
The domestic demand picture really hasn't changed. Everyone in business knows that. We've financed everything over the past 30 years and we've reached our credit limit without paying it off or declaring bankruptcy as a nation as a whole. State and Federal governments and Corporate entities.
Entities that have a cash hoard are going to be able to buy assets and talent, extremely cheaply.
If the riots when the pension funds go broke don't destroy the nation.
We are Greece, we just don't know we are Greece yet.
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We need a leader to call for sacrifice and appeal to the generations natural inclination to provide a better life for their children.
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I disagree, in our history our best times are times when we came together as a nation and sacrificed for the common good. Tax increases are part of paying off our debt.
Transfer payments should be eliminated in favor of infrastructure project jobs.
If someone is truly destitute due to a God give disability (mental retardation, Schizophrenia, extreme autism) I believe that they should be given access to life giving things and care.
Everyone else should be given the option of working for infrastructure projects or poverty. I'm an accountant, I'm not opposed to doing manual labor in a depression in order to feed myself. Particularly if it is going to build the country.
Frankly we need to mobilize on a state and federal level to compete with the Chinese threat.
I have no problem with taking care of the truly disabled... both physically or mentally. Problem is way too many people (check out DU) are on the dole when they are fit to work.
As for the chinese threat... two words. Fair Tax. Americans are the hardest working people in the world. Taxes, stupid regulations, etc, give us a... can't find the word... maybe hinderance... to compete. Implement the fair tax and the taxes will be equal between the US and China. We need to reform the legal system too so we can stop some idiot environmentalist group from holding up a project by suing to stop it and making it more expensive.
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If you want to drink Chinese tap water and give it to your children for the next 3 months, and the rank and file stuff, not the communist party official stuff, have at it. After you do that, I will be more than willing to listen to you on Chinese environmental policy.
There is a balance between Soviet/ChiCom Chernobyl and California.
Frankly I like clean drinking water, the solution is punishing the Chinese for not providing it for their citizens, not providing freedom to worship as they choose to their citizens, and punishing economic slavery with economic sanctions. Not being nice to them or allowing them to buy our debt by exporting to us and stealing our wealth.
I find it odd, that the economic war we waged on the Soviets in terms of boycotting their goods was successful and the Chi-Coms are somehow different.
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If the GOP takes over I imagine a total market crash. Frankly stimulus is the only thing that is keeping a lot of people alive right now. I imagine if the DNC retains the house by a few seats and the Senate by a few seats the same scenario.
Why? The stimulus was nothing more than a liberal's wet dream to fund their pet projects.
Perhaps you should read this:
stimulus crap (http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=38380)
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Why? The stimulus was nothing more than a liberal's wet dream to fund their pet projects.
Perhaps you should read this:
stimulus crap (http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=38380)
It did increase demand temporarily and the markets and income statements show that.
Can't argue with the math of what it did.
The argument is not whether it increased demand, the argument is whether it left anything afterward that was worth anything.
I say no.
Given the balance sheets and domestic demand right now, I believe the markets value is around 7000. A lot of this is exporting of industry to overseas locations and consumers and government funding lifestyles on debt. Pay down the debt, demand will increase as will taxes and government services eventually as they will not have to pay the debt finance expense.
This is a debt crisis. Whole different animal than an inventory recession.
3 ways out
Inflation (lets not do that, punishes savers)
Default (Doesn't sound good, probably ends the country)
Paying off the debt (hardest politically, smartest economically)
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If you want to drink Chinese tap water and give it to your children for the next 3 months, and the rank and file stuff, not the communist party official stuff, have at it. After you do that, I will be more than willing to listen to you on Chinese environmental policy.
There is a balance between Soviet/ChiCom Chernobyl and California.
Frankly I like clean drinking water, the solution is punishing the Chinese for not providing it for their citizens, not providing freedom to worship as they choose to their citizens, and punishing economic slavery with economic sanctions. Not being nice to them or allowing them to buy our debt by exporting to us and stealing our wealth.
I find it odd, that the economic war we waged on the Soviets in terms of boycotting their goods was successful and the Chi-Coms are somehow different.
OK. I now see where you are coming from... not! I said stupid regulations (like cap and tax, globull warming, stuff like that). Perhaps you should read the article by the CEO of Intel. The one where said it cost him 4 billion to build a facility in the US due to the lawsuits, regs etc.
Environmentalists are raising the cost of doing business in the US because they want us all to live like we were in the 100's. For pete's sake these nuts are advocating thinning out the "human herd" so to speak!
I'm done with you. VT and Boise State is turning out to be a good game and I am not going to sit here and debate someone that tries to compare drinking water between the US and China. The USSR, once the wall fell, was shown to have ruined the environment. The US got past that in the 70's. To equate that with the asinine regs and the lawsuits of the environmentalists just shows me you really have no argument.
Have a pleasant evening.
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I'm fully against cap and trade.
You can search DU if you wish to see how everytime that comes up I call it a Wall Street Scam led by Goldman.
Let us make a deal, I won't make assumptions about anyone on here's beliefs. Please don't make assumptions on mine.
I'm more worried about peak oil and our domestic supply than global warming. Frankly, I also like the idea of there being competition in energy. I want it taken from the ground safely.
100 years ago part of my family broke off and are Amish. I'm not that interested in joining them.
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I'm fully against cap and trade.
You can search DU if you wish to see how everytime that comes up I call it a Wall Street Scam led by Goldman.
Let us make a deal, I won't make assumptions about anyone on here's beliefs. Please don't make assumptions on mine.
I'm more worried about peak oil and our domestic supply than global warming. Frankly, I also like the idea of there being competition in energy. I want it taken from the ground safely.
100 years ago part of my family broke off and are Amish. I'm not that interested in joining them.
OK last post... the game is really good. Maybe I was a little harsh with you. My bad and I apologize. :cheersmate:
Back to the game! :beer:
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OK last post... the game is really good. Maybe I was a little harsh with you. My bad and I apologize. :cheersmate:
Back to the game! :beer:
The country is in shit, we really need to start talking to each other. Neither party in DC is representing our interest all that well over the past 30 years as Americans.
John Adams and Thomas Jefferson had many differences. Their strength in 1776 is where they put those aside and decided to have other fights, later.
Enjoy the game
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I need some help here.
Was it the Hunt family and corporation that devised a plan to buy up all the silver to drive the price up.
Darn this was a long time ago some where in the 70's but all kinds of hell broke out from their dealings.
IIRC there were two brothers that started the scam and people lost mega money as somehow the cost of silver went sky rocketing down.
One may wonder if some day someone else will find a way to devalue gold. Not on purpose but Shit happens to the best laid plans of mice and man.
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I need some help here.
Was it the Hunt family and corporation that devised a plan to buy up all the silver to drive the price up.
Darn this was a long time ago some where in the 70's but all kinds of hell broke out from their dealings.
IIRC there were two brothers that started the scam and people lost mega money as somehow the cost of silver went sky rocketing down.
One may wonder if some day someone else will find a way to devalue gold. Not on purpose but Shit happens to the best laid plans of mice and man.
Government debt, pay down the debt the price of gold goes down with it.
Gold is a commodity. Historically it has been used as money because it is malleable, doesn't rust, and has many uses.
The best asset a country has is generally its ability to defend its economic assets.
Interesting book I read about the battle over Hawaii by the Sugar barons and Fruit Barons where each picked a different local to back as the puppet for their interest.
After the battle, a banner was posted over the capital.
Lead always beats gold.
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Your question on gold values, governments pay down their debts, gold declines in price. It is a hedge against inflation.
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Your question on gold values, governments pay down their debts, gold declines in price. It is a hedge against inflation.
That is a pipe dream that will never happen. Governments will not pay down their debt but will rather inflate their currency so that their debt becomes smaller. When that happens in the next 3 years, Gold will rise dramatically in price rather than decline. Gold has appreciated around 25% in the last year whereas the stock market is down. Silver and other metals will also be a beneficiary of debt ridden countries.
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That is a pipe dream that will never happen. Governments will not pay down their debt but will rather inflate their currency so that their debt becomes smaller. When that happens in the next 3 years, Gold will rise dramatically in price rather than decline. Gold has appreciated around 25% in the last year whereas the stock market is down. Silver and other metals will also be a beneficiary of debt ridden countries.
I expect the Federal Government to become Greece, rather quickly.
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We need a leader to call for sacrifice and appeal to the generations natural inclination to provide a better life for their children.
Very true! Like a CONSERVATIVE leader!! :cheersmate:
Not like this imposter occupying the White House these days. :bird:
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Very true! Like a CONSERVATIVE leader!! :cheersmate:
Not like this imposter occupying the White House these days. :bird:
Well I'm still bitter about the go shopping line after 9-11, threw something at the TV when the last awful President uttered that.
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Well I'm still bitter about the go shopping line after 9-11, threw something at the TV when the last awful President uttered that.
Yep, like everyone should own a house BS. I knew that was a recipe for disaster. No income, fine. Barney and Dodd says no problem. They should hang these two turkeys.
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Yep, like everyone should own a house BS. I knew that was a recipe for disaster. No income, fine. Barney and Dodd says no problem. They should hang these two turkeys.
Hey the last guy went along with the ownership society idea. Anytime I hear bipartisan solution, I crap my pants.