The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: franksolich on April 09, 2010, 05:37:48 AM
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http://www.democraticunderground.org/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8116688
Oh my.
The primitives, again discussing something about which they don't know excresence.
Fumesucker (1000+ posts) Thu Apr-08-10 11:27 PM
Original message
Was it “Nobody Saw It Coming†or “Everybody Who Saw It Coming Was a Nobody�
I know this is old but the title just slays me and the article makes an excellent point.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/guest-post-was-i...
A number of economists, economic policymakers, regulators, and central bankers have attempted to explain away their failure to both foresee and mitigate the current financial crisis by asserting that no one saw it coming. The inference is that they cannot be held accountable for something so unusual, so extraordinary, and so unforecastable that that no one saw it coming.
Robert Shiller, in a November 1, 2008 NYT OP-ED, noted the following example:
Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, acknowledged in a Congressional hearing last month that he had made an “error†in assuming that the markets would properly regulate themselves, and added that he had no idea a financial disaster was in the making. What’s more, he said the Fed’s own computer models and economic experts simply “did not forecast†the current financial crisis.
However, the Fed and other policymaking agencies cannot honestly claim that no one saw it coming. There is ample evidence that:
• Economist and commentators “saw it comingâ€; and
• Economists and others repeatedly brought their observations to the attention of the authorities including the Fed, but were ignored.
In fact, the Fed increasingly exhibited a willingness ignoring critics and criticism. The existence of this pattern at the Fed can be illustrated by looking at two presentations by Kohn. The first is from 2003 and the second is from 2005. But first, a return to Shiller’s OP-ED piece:
Mr. Greenspan’s comments may have left the impression that no one in the world could have predicted the crisis. Yet it is clear that well before home prices started falling in 2006, lots of people were worried about the housing boom and its potential for creating economic disaster. It’s just that the Fed did not take them very seriously.
Atman (1000+ posts) Thu Apr-08-10 11:31 PM
PEDRO PICASSO, #11 TOP PRIMITIVE OF 2009
Response to Original message
1. **** those guys. I know of dozens of mere DUers who "saw it coming," and posted about it.
Me among. Check my journals. I wrote about this many times, well before it all broke down. And I'm just a moron. Why didn't the guys making 90 mil a year figure it out?
Initech (1000+ posts) Fri Apr-09-10 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
9. I knew it was coming and I know jack shit about economics.
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Atman (1000+ posts) Thu Apr-08-10 11:31 PM
PEDRO PICASSO, #11 TOP PRIMITIVE OF 2009
Response to Original message
1. **** those guys. I know of dozens of mere DUers who "saw it coming," and posted about it.
Me among. Check my journals. I wrote about this many times, well before it all broke down. And I'm just a moron. Why didn't the guys making 90 mil a year figure it out?
Yes, you are a moron, and **NO** you didn't "see it coming". There is a big difference between wishing and hoping for an economic disaster to destroy our great nation in order to embarrass President George W. Bush and actually correctly predicting a coming major economic downturn and explaining why it is about to happen.
Moron.
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But how many DUers see whats coming now? Not many the way they praise the Barak for his tax and borrow and spend ways.
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I think the DU name fumesucker is very appropriate.
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But how many DUers see whats coming now? Not many the way they praise the Barak for his tax and borrow and spend ways.
They may see the writting on the wall but turn a blind eye to it
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Fumesucker
However, the Fed and other policymaking agencies cannot honestly claim that no one saw it coming. There is ample evidence that:
• Economist and commentators “saw it comingâ€; and
• Economists and others repeatedly brought their observations to the attention of the authorities including the Fed, but were ignored.
That's evidence?? Doesn't work that way in the real world.
I can honestly say that as a mortage lender, I noted that Fannie and Freddie were buying 100% LTV Stated Income and No Income Verification Loans, and I thought at the time that they were playing with fire because those are very high risk loans. But there's no way in the world that I could ever honestly say that I saw coming what has happened.
Some economists didn't see any potential downside to what was going on, others saw the end of the world, then there were 10,000 various scenerios played out inbetween those two extremes. Regardless of what the future held, at least one of those 10,000 forecasts was going to be closer to what really happened than the others. That doesn't mean they saw it coming. If that's the case, let's get those same economists and have them predict what it will be like 2 to 5 years from now and then we'll see just how accurate they are. I mean, they either have the magic touch or they don't.
How about it, Pedro? Predict the economic scenerio for April 9, 2012 and April 9, 2015 and we'll just just how close reality is to what "you saw coming." I dare you to even try.
Poor Pedro.
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Speaking of morons:
EFerrari (1000+ posts) Fri Jul-08-05 06:15 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. Don't mind me. I have no brain.
Sorry.
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People did see it and tried to stem it off. However, the donks used the race card, the poor card, the big meanie republican card and with the 100% support of the MSM forced them to shut up. Could they have been stronger? Yes but they tried to push that boulder up the hill and the black caucus in particular forced it under the mat. As well, do not underestimate how much the left and the media hyping bad economic times for 6 years undermined the economy.
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Fumesucker
However, the Fed and other policymaking agencies cannot honestly claim that no one saw it coming. There is ample evidence that:
• Economist and commentators “saw it coming”; and
• Economists and others repeatedly brought their observations to the attention of the authorities including the Fed, but were ignored.
As I recall "ThumbSucker", it was the Repubs and, heaven forbid, George W, that was tryin' to pull the plug, but your buddies in the DemonRat party, Bwarney Fwankfurter, Charles Raines, and others refused to listen!
Call me a liar, asshats!
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Initech (1000+ posts) Fri Apr-09-10 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
9. I knew it was coming and I know jack shit about economics.
Sounds like you qualify to be Obama's economic czar. One more question though, did you pay your taxes? If the answer is no then you are a shoo in.