The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: bijou on March 12, 2008, 03:18:14 PM
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sfam (1000+ posts) Wed Mar-12-08 03:58 PM
Original message
I'm predicting a republican win in November...
It seems pretty clear that what's left of the democratic brand name after this "contest" won't be worth much. It's fairly amazing how we can turn a sure thing into an abomination. Yes, I think we can all agree now that the democratic party primary rules are as hoaky and idiotic as a party can possibly devise. Yet even with this, I think we would have had to work overtime to destroy our advantage.
Lucky for us, that's exactly what's happening. By looking at the math, its near impossible to come up with a scenario where Obama (who has already won the majority of the states) doesn't lead in the overall pledged delegate votes, and almost as impossible to come up with a scenario where he doesn't win the popular vote. With this in mind, if Hillary is somehow able to convince the Supes to support her, Obama's supporters will rebel in the streets stating the election was stolen, making Hillary's nomination moot. Likewise, although Obama is most assuredly going to sail slowly to the nomination, the Clinton campaign is tarnishing him as a candidate, and more importantly, turning off her supporters from even considering Obama. His and the democratic party's overall negatives are going up. We now have a situation where many Hillary supporters feel the election is "owed" to Hillary, and that the only reason Obama is winning is because the country is filled with misogynist pigs who will even vote for an unexperienced minority hire over her. The independents are hearing that Obama is viewed as unqualified for Commander in Chief by a large segment of the democratic party. And we still have many more months of this crap to go.
In other words, we're pretty much ****ed whoever comes out of the contest now. This means that the only way either of the candidates win is by sliming and smearing McCain into the mud. In the end, at best, all we'll be left with is a country more divided and pessimistic than we are today.
Considering Obama most like wins the primary after being bruised and battered, I don't see him sliming McCain to the degree he'll need to in order to capture the independents. If McCain then goes and picks a woman VP, the contest is over. Hence my prediction.
Better luck in 2012 I guess...
Managing expectations already? (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5043578)
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In other words, we're pretty much ****ed whoever comes out of the contest now.
Truth is a thing of beauty....and so rare at DUmp Island.
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Whoever came up with the whole "Superdelegate" thing, thank you!
:popcorn:
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Whoever came up with the whole "Superdelegate" thing, thank you!
:popcorn:
Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate#History) (insofar as it can be trusted) says this. After the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Democratic Party made changes in its delegate selection process, based on the work of the McGovern-Fraser Commission. The purpose of the changes was to make the composition of the convention less subject to control by party leaders and more responsive to the votes cast during the campaign for the nomination.
But some Democrats believed that these changes had unduly diminished the role of party leaders and elected officials, weakening the Democratic tickets of George McGovern and Jimmy Carter. In 1982, a commission chaired by former North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt created superdelegates. Under the original Hunt plan, superdelegates were 30% of all delegates, but when it was finally implemented in 1984, they were 14%. The number has steadily increased, and today they are approximately 20%. [5]
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I'm predicting a republican win in November...
I wish I could do the same. However, I'm only willing to predict a McCain win at this juncture. :(
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Whoever came up with the whole "Superdelegate" thing, thank you!
:popcorn:
Bob Beckel is the one you can thank. I've heard him say he regrets it. :-) I believe he said they did it to prevent Ted Kennedy from getting the nomination.
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I'm predicting a republican win in November...
I wish I could do the same. However, I'm only willing to predict a McCain win at this juncture. :(
:rotf:
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Whoever came up with the whole "Superdelegate" thing, thank you!
:popcorn:
Bob Beckel is the one you can thank. I've heard him say he regrets it. :-) I believe he said they did it to prevent Ted Kennedy from getting the nomination.
Considering what Fat Teddy would have brought to the table, or the White House, I thank Mr. Beckel, too! :naughty: :evillaugh:
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If Teddy had only driven a VolksWagen Bug.