The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Economics => Topic started by: Peter3_1 on March 09, 2009, 10:05:55 PM
-
And I have an idea that's been perking for a year. Williston Basin/Bakken Shale oil and gas, And the Marcallus Shale. I want to start an "investment club", we'll concentrate on the two proved captioned plays. Develope a bundle of stocks (you know, like spyers, dogs of the dow, etc) using small investment amounts, and using an online broker, like Scott Trade. I have recently bought some pipeline stocks, Texas mostly, and they earm from a LOW of 8% to a high of 12%. They have AMAZING p/e ratiors . Check ETP, for instance.
Anyway, I would like to have the bundle made od of suppliers, pipeline owners, drillers, leash holders, well owners, gas well owners and gas field contract holders, AND ANYONE ELSE i THINK OF. i'M THINKING NOT A LARGE SUM TO START, say $500 each , then use earned money AND dividends to buy more. As I have time on my hands, I can be at the "trade desk" most days. I'd use a "boiler plate" contract for such a club as I don't reinvent the wheel every time I want to take a ride.
Remember, REGARDLESS as I've been working on this for over a year, I'm going to jump in. I an tired of m "fortune" not growing! Let me know if you have any thoughts.
If I'm the lone ranger here, as I think is most likely (after all you don't know me from Adam's off Ox), I'll just report in on success/failure.
-
Badcat. decided to jump back in the markert alone.
Bought Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) $33.49 P/E 7.87
El Paso Pipeline Partiners ( EPB) $16.95 P/E 14.16
Ferrelgas Partners (FGP) $12.23 P/E 26.34
Enterprize Products Partners(EDP) $18.68 P/E 21.67
plus I'm thinking of buying all three of the Atlas Energy stocke, they are Marcellus Shale plays, and have yields well over 10% and have been beaten bloody over the last month or so. I sure do hope we've hit bottom. And that the idiot falls back ten , punts, ald starts to figure out what his job really is.
anyway here's the article rthat got my interest:
http://www.willistonnd.com/usrimages/Bakken.pdf
Interesting that the HEAT MAKES THE KEROGEN MATIURE INTO PETROLEUM OIL in the heat at depth.
Atlas intertests me because on the Penna and NYS ownership they hav e in the Marcellus Shale.
http://geology.com/articles/marcellus-shale.shtml
Plus I might actually visit the Marcellus Shale operations in the summer.
I put In $23K, EVEN $ split among the 4, and may go $5k total with the three Atlas companiers, tho two are "flyers".
I appreciate the matter of depth, but as some wells are already producing in Williston, the slant drill technique gets around some of the enviro-luddite-malthusian regulations. Anyway, if thiis dioesn't help me' it surrely will help my grandkids! The latest g.Daughter is 2 mos. and by College, it should heve good value!
-
ETP $33.81 UP A TAD
EPB $17.38 " " "
FCP $11.86 DOWN A TAD
EPD $18.95 UP A TAD
So I'm fractionally ahead. Maybe I should limit this to once a week.
-
Hey, what's wrong with Gloom and Doom?
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/fb/Gloom_front.jpg) (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c9/Doom-boxart.jpg)
But yeah in all seriousness, to paraphrase Rush, "If there's ever a recession, you don't have to participate."
-
ETP 37.55 UP NICELY $4 PER share
EPB 18.68 UP A TAD $0.78 per share
FGP 14.06 " " " $1.83
EDP 22.58 UP NICELY$3.91
Total cumulative $10 X 250+ = $2500 (unrealized) profit since 3/20/2009 not great, but not so bas either, and I'm thinking ATLAS that has an interest in the Marcallus Shale (NYS, PENNA, ETC) MIGHT BE GOOD TO ADD. It has not been floated yet, but I think it has potential.
And don't forget, the captioned Co's all pay a dividend IN EXCESS of 10% based money spent in the purchase from sales.
-
ETP $40.43 bought at $33.81 up $6.50
EPB $18.90 bought at $18.68 flat still earning at over 8%
FGP $15.90 bought at $12.23 up $3.00+
EDP $25.34 bought at $18.68 up $5.50
So a few days ago I also bought:
Atlas Energy Resources LLC
ATN $17.715 TODAY $20.19 UP $2.50 + Erns over 12% dividend.
Eastern American Natural Gas TR
NGT $12.60 TODAY $25.00 YIELDING OVER 10% 8% on today's price.
So, If I had sold today, I'd have made a short term gain on the lot of almost $10,000. Not so bad, for a guy who prowls the web checking on who's doing what in the nat. gas and associated oil bus., is it?
-
I like to dabble in oil and gas stocks. Have owned Chesapeake (CHK) for the last 2 months and it is up around 40%. They are the largest natural gas producers in the US. I owned ETP for a while until the bottom fell out. Exxon is not doing squat so I might dump them soon.
A great oil company that will take off like a rocket in the future is Denbury (DNR). They are injecting old wells with CO2 and running pipelines from MS to TX. This procedure has been very profitable in MS but now they are expanding to LA;I have an old well in the Delhi Field that they will be spiking. I think the pipeline is about 75% complete and they are building huge storage tanks. This company also has a lock in the south for purchasing CO2 which will be a big money maker for them when the dumb asses in DC start selling carbon credits. They also own a great deal of acreage in north LA in the largest gas field in the US which is still in its infancy stages.
I am going to sit on the sidelines for the summer to see how the economy is going to shake out. The market is probably in for a correction. When Denbury starts up production in this huge oil field in Louisana, I will bet the farm.
-
I am looking for income, and not so much trading. I looked at Chesapeak too, and saw no dividend. Exxon doesn't have much either....and my Cap. gain is good there...
With this current admin., I may have to change my game plan, tho., as they seem intent on crushing the economy. Nat. Gas. has the advantage of being easily piped, is found in damned near all sedementary rock, found as a caltrate underwater and in permafrost all over in VAST quantities (eg: shale deposit:plenty in the Bakken Formation/ Williston Basin clathtrate plenty in ANWR)), AND IT CAN BECOME DIESEL, SYNTHETIC GASOLINE AND LUBRICATION OIL, used stright out of the pipeline to heat and cook, used in fuel cells, cpwer cars/trucks direct as CNG with conversions iof existing vehicles costing about $3,000 and on and on.
-
More here, 30 years ago a friend , Tom Norton, CO-held a patent for seperating petroleum oil from salt water across a reverse osmosis membrane in commercial quantities. aBOUT 2 YEARS AFTER BEING AWARDED the patent he vanished completely out of his Apartment and may still be dissapeared. I was wondering if anything became of the patented process ? The patent should be expired by now and in the public domain.
-
More here, 30 years ago a friend , Tom Norton, CO-held a patent for seperating petroleum oil from salt water across a reverse osmosis membrane in commercial quantities. aBOUT 2 YEARS AFTER BEING AWARDED the patent he vanished completely out of his Apartment and may still be dissapeared. I was wondering if anything became of the patented process ? The patent should be expired by now and in the public domain.
I came across an article earlier this week that claimed oil is naturally released by the earth into the ocean ever year as was released at the Exxon Valdez spill.
I'll see if I can look it up later.
-
I am looking for income, and not so much trading. I looked at Chesapeak too, and saw no dividend. Exxon doesn't have much either....and my Cap. gain is good there...
With this current admin., I may have to change my game plan, tho., as they seem intent on crushing the economy. Nat. Gas. has the advantage of being easily piped, is found in damned near all sedementary rock, found as a caltrate underwater and in permafrost all over in VAST quantities (eg: shale deposit:plenty in the Bakken Formation/ Williston Basin clathtrate plenty in ANWR)), AND IT CAN BECOME DIESEL, SYNTHETIC GASOLINE AND LUBRICATION OIL, used stright out of the pipeline to heat and cook, used in fuel cells, cpwer cars/trucks direct as CNG with conversions iof existing vehicles costing about $3,000 and on and on.
If the dumb asses in DC would plow all investments from solar, ethanol and wind into natural gas pipelines and CNG infrastructure, it would have a much greater effect on reducing our dependence on foreign oil and would be cheaper for consumers.
Several months ago, the Air Force flew a plane coast to coast and back on a mixture of gas and liquefied coal that cost less than jet fuel. However, it looks like the government is hell bent on taxing the crap out of oil and subsidizing green energy to the hilt.
-
Yes, the fools are. Arsnic, if you sold it as the GREEN version, would whiz out the door at inflated prices!!! :thatsright: There is no such thing as "green" energy. Everything has an impact, and the less concentrated, the larger the overall impact. Solar takes up the most area because it is INEFFICIENT AND "thin" on the ground. A Commercially viable direct solar plant covers 10,000 square acres! A natural gas plant producing the same energy covers 20 acres....
"green" electricity in windmills kills birds like a giant mixmaster. Bats too, I'm told. Plus, they break down and are even less efficient than solar cells.
TO DATE there is nothing more efficient converting sunlight to useable energy than photosynthisis. Sunlight, water, CO2 and BINGO, GLUCOSE and oxygen for us to breathe! How perfect is THAT? :-) :cheersmate:
tHE ANSWER until fusion can be sussed out , is nuclear and fossil fuels/methane. Anything else out of Obama's mouth is more piffle.
-
ETP ClOSED TODAY AT $42.99
EPB closed at $17.43
FGP closed at $ 15.59
EPD closed at $ 25.61
aTLAS closed at $22.03
Eastern American at $24.55 so overall up nicely and the interest/earniings are holding.
So far, so good.
-
And I have an idea that's been perking for a year. Williston Basin/Bakken Shale oil and gas, And the Marcallus Shale. I want to start an "investment club", we'll concentrate on the two proved captioned plays. Develope a bundle of stocks (you know, like spyers, dogs of the dow, etc) using small investment amounts, and using an online broker, like Scott Trade. I have recently bought some pipeline stocks, Texas mostly, and they earm from a LOW of 8% to a high of 12%. They have AMAZING p/e ratiors . Check ETP, for instance.
Anyway, I would like to have the bundle made od of suppliers, pipeline owners, drillers, leash holders, well owners, gas well owners and gas field contract holders, AND ANYONE ELSE i THINK OF. i'M THINKING NOT A LARGE SUM TO START, say $500 each , then use earned money AND dividends to buy more. As I have time on my hands, I can be at the "trade desk" most days. I'd use a "boiler plate" contract for such a club as I don't reinvent the wheel every time I want to take a ride.
Remember, REGARDLESS as I've been working on this for over a year, I'm going to jump in. I an tired of m "fortune" not growing! Let me know if you have any thoughts.
If I'm the lone ranger here, as I think is most likely (after all you don't know me from Adam's off Ox), I'll just report in on success/failure.
Hi,
I am going to pass along some personal experience. I have an investment advisor who is very knowledgable of the global markets. At the end of April we purchased four stocks:
GG Goldcorp Purchase price $29.45 closed today at $35.75
PAAS Pan American Silver $17.62 $22.15
ABX Barrick Gold $29.69 $35.06
SLW Silver Wheaton $8.04 $10.18
Now, because he is outside the US, he converted my US dollars to Canadian Dollars and bought the stock in Canadian dollars. I bought the loonies at $ .82 and today they closed at $ .90 so I have made profit not only on the stock but and additional 10% on the currency.
If one wants to invest and spread his risk, he can no longer be safe owing a bunch of companies in different industries if it is all denominated in US dollars which have been declining steadily over the last 20+ years and will continue to do so with the defecit government spending etc. To hedge your bets against inflation you might want to check out some ETF's like FXE, FXY, FXA, and FXC. The one which is being currently touted is the Australian dollar and it has done well. I bought a small amount of FXA and today received my first dividend check which was nice.
Now, I am in the process of trying to learn how the true global thinkers think and invest so I have signed up for a couple courses, the most significant one on currency trading. I have no intention of trading currencies, highly leveraging trades, etc. I am trying to figure out why one currency goes up while another goes down. First thing I learned is that trading currency is what they call a zero sum game, when one goes down another goes up in the same proportion. Unlike stocks when they can all go down, that is impossible in the currency markets as one currency is sold against another. Say you bought Swiss Francs (CHF) with US Dollars (USD) you are basically saying that you think the dollar will go down while the franc goes up. Using the Aussie dollar for example. If you think it is going to go up against the US dollar you buy FXA...if you think the US Dollar will go up and the Aussie dollar down, you short FXA, just be sure to put in a stop loss. Good news is the swings I have seen in currency prices is not quite so volitale as stock in any given day unless something very unusual happens.
In the last 20 years the franc has doubled in price as compared to the dollar for a number of reasons, not the least of which is they are one of the currencies that are restricted by their government. When our US dollar was backed by gold, the federal reserve was limited by the amount of money they could print. If we were 20% gold backed, by law they were not allowed to have any more currency in circulation that did not meet that criteria. They would take the number of gold ounces owned by the federal government, multiply it by the current price of gold and then they could use that number to determine just how much currency they were allowed to have in circulation. Were we still on the gold standard BO could not have done what he did......
When one is in or expecting high inflation, they should consider investing in currencies of countries that export oil or metals that are denominated in dollars. That is why he chose the CAD, because they are big exporters of oil. When the fact that our government is printing up money hand over fist, that will indeed be reflected in the price per barrel of oil, and for many of us I see $5+ per gallon at the pump becoming a reality. That of course would delight the libs and particularly Al Gore.
You may also want to check Everbank in Jacksonville, FL, they have a website. They sell CD's (insured by the FDIC) denominated in foreign currencies so not only do you get the interest on the CD, you also can profit from the currency. The part I like best is one does not have to buy just one currency, they have several "bundles". By that I mean this. Say you had $10,000 to invest and you wanted to buy currency in oil exporting countires. If there were five currencies in that "bundle" you would get 20% of your CD invested in each of the five currencies.
You have every right to be concerned that you investment portfolio, including cash, is not returning a good yield and take pro-active measures to improve your position. I would urge you not to get caught up in the hype, the recession is far from over (see the thread I started on that last week), so you need to focus on investments that give you good yields in this type of market. I am not qualified, nor am I trying to be an investment advisor. What i am trying to do with this post is share what I have learned. I guess the biggest thing I can say I learned as I started this project is that I still have much to learn but I am starting to grasp the concepts that cause the fluctuations.
Good luck,
Regards,
5412
-
OK, ALREADY BOUGHT bARRICK. gOT IT BACK AT $19.00 A WHILE BACK when it was cheap. Bought HP at $15.02, Royal Dutch Shell at $50.44, but lost on Quest and others.....
Been looking at Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold too, but missed the early run up off the lows.
Stocks of the providers of commodities sure seems logical to me at this point in time. As you prolly know, China told the Obama Admin. to pound salt with the fraudulent "carbon" matter that the Admin. embraces.
THAT and the recent things going on with contractuql liabilities is making foreign investment more attractive to me.
-
Here are a couple of my winners:
Chesapeake (CHK) bought it at $15 over $24 today for a 60% gain
Petrohhawk (HK) bought it $13 over $26 today for a 100% gain
Lost my butt (50%) on shorting the S&P though.
Looking at buying stock in Denbury (DNR) who will crank up production of injecting CO2 in abandoned wells in the Delhi field in north Louisiana at the end of the year. If oil stays above 50 bucks a barrell, I will make a shit pot full of money on mineral rights that I own.
-
One of the Sat . AM stock pundits reccomended it, pertohawk, and they are normally SO WRONG, i WAS PUT OFF. Guess even a stopped clock is correct twice a day...
-
Very few companies have a positive stock price for a 3 and 5 year period. (HK) has a 100% and 300% respectively. The volatility of the stock is nerve racking to say the least. It was up 4.5% today; 15 to 20% swings up and down in a week are not uncommon.
-
Just checked the 5 year chart for Petrohawk. It seems to be back on chart for normal growth. As if the economy's recession is in the beginings of a recovery. I'll pull the UBS report on it and see what I think. I need to know why there is no dividend and what the historical dividend has been.
-
Updating my stocks:
ATN : $20.25 bought at $17.714
DPM $20.64 " " $ 9.797 :cheersmate:
NGT $24.00 " " $ 25.20 :whatever:
EDP $25.29 " " $ 20.77 :-)
EPB $ 17.55 " " $ 15.225 :yawn:
ETP $ 40.50 " " $33.86 :cheersmate:
FGP $ 16.19 " " $15.12 :yawn:
sO. i'M GOOD AND MY YIELD on all is at least 8% to 14%, so I'm happy for a while.
-
I like the smiley-face index. It makes it easier to understand.
-
I like the smiley-face index. It makes it easier to understand.
:rotf: :rotf: :rotf:
-
What the hell, it's all in good fun. MY IDEA was to buy nat gas pipeline and associated industries. Obama making n=most anything else problamatic, idiot that he is.
-
atn: $17.714 now $22.00
edp: $20.77 now $28.55
dpm $9.797 now $24.17
ngt $25.20 now $24.13
epb $15.225 now $18.96
etp: $33.86 now $44.37
fgp $16.19 now $ 17.90
Still doing OK, not spectacular, but the interest to me is still very good and the preservation of capital is very good.
-
here is today's reading:
etp cost $33.86 now $46.96 gain $13.00 + per share
epd cost $17.714 now $28.21 gain $ 10.50 + per share
ngt cost $25.20 now $24.00 LOSS $1.20
epb cost $15.225 now $ 19.63 gain $4+ per share
fgp cost $16.19 now $18.73 gain $2.50 + per share
atn cost 17.714 now $24.51 gain $7+ per share
dpm cost $9.797 now $25.05 gain :$15 + per share
Gross annual interest income is now 10% +, based on my original cost, average.
And those are all the "cherries" I can find on this tree, ...for now....
-
UPDATE:
etp $33.86 cost now $41.90 down some, gas proces off return still super
edp $17.741 now 27.24
ngt $25.20 now $24.20
epb $15.225 now $19.14
fgp $16.19 now $ 19.55
atn $ 17.714 now $26.05
dpm $9.797 now $22.07
Still ok, but this weeks slump pushed back on me, but things still look good, interest is very good too,
-
This :http://www.oilshalegas.com/haynesvilleshale.html is going to be interesting. LOOKS LIKE this will be a growth thing, not an income thing. I'm going to have to think about this some more.
I like this company, but at a little less.....
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAPC
we'll see...
-
Wife hated Anadarko but liked American oil and gas. So, I bought it at $1.34, now $1.3 :tongue:6!!!!, put in a sell order when I bought it to sell half when it reaches $2.50 and it is expected to excee $2.60 this year. We'll see. A growth stock only. Broke my own rule, :thatsright:
-
added Provident Energy Trust.
$5.09 earns 12.9 int.
so,
PVX $5.09 BOUGHT now $5.29
AEZ $1.34 bought now $1.70
edp $20.77 bought now $27.22
etp $33.86 bought now $41.75
ngt $17.741 bt now $23.50
epb $15.225 bt now $19.67
fgp $16.19 bt now $19.99
atn $17.714 bt now $25.78
dpm $9.797 bt now $22.46
So they're all up, and only one is a pure growrth play. Williston Basin Stock...On average they are earning 10% ion the purchase price. I'll check the gross income in a couple weeks.....2 of them already earned over $300 last quarter
-
So American Oil and gas, I bought at $1.31 a share 3800 shares, sold HALF today as $2.50 , so 1900 x 2.50 = $4,750 back, $250 short of my total investment in this stock. Will asell the rest if it reaches $4.00, but that won't be today.
Bought BreitBurn Energy (yld 16.5% dividend), Torch Energy (22.1% int. yield) yesterday, both of which are up over the market average today....as we look at a colder than average winter.....
Frankl;y, I looked up "energy trust" "royalty trust" (go Canadian there),and "energy partners" on my stock lookup and have been going thru them looking Kinder Morgan Energy Partners interests me, but more research is needed.
Also Gunness Atkinson China and Hong Kong is something that interests me, as they own TONS of our debt, have a currency with an artifically depressed value AND are now world wide merchants,. The whole damned countey is a Corp! and they dwarf Japan. Auystralia uinterests me as a currency hedge too, but by owning corp. and Gvt. bonds there. You get small interest, but at Obama's magic cash starts having a major effect, the Yen and the Aussie Dollar will increase in value. Or so I think.
I'm open to suggestion.
Any
-
Should have bought some Ford stock back in November. Damn. Even my broke ass could have made a bundle from that.
(http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/5669/fomocostock.png)
-
It was and is against my rules Must have dividend income OR a very strong upside potential with very limited bankruptcy exposure. At $1.05 Ford had none of these. Rite Aide still too risky.
PWE Penn West Energy Trust NYSE got it
PGH Pengrowth Energy Trust NYSE got it
PVX Provident Energy Trust NYSE
HTE Harvest Energy Trust NYSE
VET-UN.TO VERMILION ENERGY TRUST UNITS Toronto
ENT Enterra Energy Trust NYSE
BTE Baytex Energy Trust NYSE
PMT-UN.TO PARAMOUNT ENERGY TRUST UNITS Toronto
TUI-UN.TO TRUE ENERGY TRUSTS TRUST UNITS Toronto
AET-UN.TO ARC ENERGY TRUST TRUST UNITS
and I'm thinking about a few others too.....
-
So I bought Breitburn Energy Partners AND Torch Energy Royalty Trust. BreitBurn earns 16.5% annually, but has limited growth. 16.5% AIN'T BAD IN A 3% CD world. Trch is, I think, a growth thing, especially considering the cold we're suffering up here.
Thus far there is a $50,000 growth in the stock value overall, plus interest earnings: year to date is a little over $33,000 , $26,000 of which is from dividends. Because of the energy and royalty trusts, almost $25,000 is TAX EXEMPT!
This year I should reach $70,000 gross, and about 1/2 will be tax exempt.
I hope this holds for another year. This is a real posibility as Obama is so screwing up the energy sector, that I see the prices and earnings going up past predicted amounts by a tad.
So with the Marcallus Shale coming into its' own, the Williston Basin (Three Forks-Mexican deposits and Bakken Shale) and the Louisana nat gas deposits proving larger than thought , the energy will flow, and the meters will run. At some point I'll take the gain, if it is still there.
Anyway, I should have done this a year ago August, but better late than never.
-
year end numbers:
Amer oil & gas paid $1.32 closed 12/31 at $4.20
Atlas Energy paid $25.725 closed $30.14 BUT got 116 more shares from a split
Pengrowth paid $9.218 closed $9.630
Breitburn paid $12.246 closed $10.590 lostvalue, but it is coming back
DCP Midstream paid $ 9.797 closed $29.570 HOME RUN THERE!
East. Ameri. paid $25.20 closed $23.51 comming back with the cold weather
Enterprise paid $20.775 closed $31.400
Torch paid $$6.47 closed $4.750
Unrealized gain, $26,655 gross interest $42,000
Second account, small,
EPB p: $15.255 N $25.95, MLP P$33.86 N$44.97 FGP P $15.12 N 21.13 + $4400 DIV PAY
sO.i'M GOOD so far. Most of the lower prices are already mostly back. Hope next year is as good....
Gross
-
Two new ETF's came out on the market Friday. Palladium (PALL) and Platinum (PPLT). Think I will dip my toes in those two.
My big play is going to be Denbury (DNR). They are the largest independent oil producer east of the MS injecting CO2 into old wells. They have spent millions building a pipeline from MS to Delhi LA. Denbury has been making good gains by this proven method in MS. The pipeline is finished and they have started injecting CO2 into a few wells. In a couple months, the recovery process should take effect, and the royalty checks I receive will be pumped back into their stock.
-
STILL DOING OK. SOLD OFF ALL THE LONG TERM LOSERS, AS i PLAN TO SELL SOME WINNERS, AND NEED THE OFFSET....best pick ws American oil and gas, $1.32 to $4.70/
-
Peter I have spent my time after the military making my living in the markets. Its paid for all that I have. All I know to tell you... good luck.
Dont get caught with your pants down around you ankles.
-
Javelin, try and keep my pants on.
So far, I'm good, not 100% , but good.
Feb. report:
Pengrowth bought $9.218 now $10.45
Provident PVX BOUGHT $5.148 now $7.87
Breitburn BBEP bought $12.246 now $15.23
" $14.207 now $15.23
DCP Midstream bought $9.797 now $$30.82
Eastern American bought $25.20 now $23.78
Enterprise products EPD bought $20.775 now $32.76
Torch TRU BOUGHT $ 6.47 now $4.39
American Oil & gas Bought $1.32 now $5.85
El Paso bought $15.266 now$27.97
Energy Transfer bought $33.86 now $66.74
Ferrellgas Bought $15.122 now $21.75
They are still delevering an average of 10% dividends based on my purchase price, except American o & g, who is srtictly a growth purchase.
-
They are still delevering an average of 10% dividends based on my purchase price, except American o & g, who is srtictly a growth purchase.
Sure you can make money in vegas... so how long are you going to bet against the house?
Good job for the start up but just curious as to where a few things are that you may need to consider. What is the exit strategy and where do you plan on the downside?
You have any short lineups? If your more long term minded what hedges are you using?
From where I sit in my opinion this bull market is going to run out of steam. BBands have been tightening then a nice six or so day run up but its no breakout. Too many pieces are overbought and real fundamentals do not support the current levels. Right now all I see is a complete disconnect on the market verses the street which reminds me of the first slip when the DJIA was around 14k and technicals are showing similar. Now if I could guess when it would happen I would have more money than the government..... well... I think my 5 year old has more money than the government in real terms but you get what I mean.
-
Well, on the growth risks, I have sold off 1/2 the original number of shares when they reached (or reach) double the purchase price. I principal back of things like American. 50% of cash assets are in certain insured money funds. They don't earn much, but are very conservative.
Shorting things make me nervous. I am better at figuring out where there is room for profit.....like when I bought Barrick Gold long long ago after the last gold /silver market crash......bought B of NY back in 1970 and a DRIP program added money and over the years grew a lot. When they decided to enter into the bank buying frenzy, I sold most of it, paid the gain, bought my Ferrari , my two Royal Formula Fords and put my two sons thru College. Not to menton helped take care of certain health issues.....
Anyway my reason for jumping into the oil patch was the insanity that was/is the Obama admin.. Clearly he was the incompetent boob he has proved himself to be with business and the economy. My thinking was/is that the economy is in trouble big time, and , unless you want to freeze to death, eat all raw food and walk everywhere, we're going to be on petroleum for a very very long time. Nat gas and the Bakken reserves , the Three Forks Sanish , Canadian Oil Sands, Marcallus Shale , and the other proved , exploited reserves would be a reliable sourse of income. Which is what I want.
I watch the shares daily, and , should I grow fearful or see a drop I feel uncomfortable with, I can be out and into CD's in a few minutes. P