The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2008 => Topic started by: Chris on November 01, 2008, 05:01:22 AM
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ENPR Prediction: Obama Narrow Win, Dems 58 Senate Seats, 254 House Seats (http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=29267)
The election is still winnable for McCain. Remember that pollsters are factoring into their results an assumed higher black turnout and higher youth turnout than normal. Also, remember that Republican voters--especially this year, with Democratic politicians attributing opposition to Obama to racism or redneck prejudice--are far coyer about answering pollsters.
Many Electoral College counters are showing a huge Obama blowout on that score. This, too, is overblown. States like Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina, where Obama posts small leads but comes in under 50%, still lean towards McCain, in fact. If McCain makes a late, desperate negative attack that plays wrong, we could see an Obama blowout, but as of now, Obama is looking at a big win, but not a Reaganesque one.
In our current read of the Electoral College, Obama wins on the strength of carrying all the Kerry 2004 states plus a few pickups in the middle of the country: New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa--with Virginia as gravy.
House Republicans face another slaughter. Democrats will make double-digit net gains, possibly pushing 30 seats. Many GOP incumbents are in danger, and Democrats are dominating in the open seats.
In the Senate, Democrats start with a gain of 4 seats, with another 7 GOP-held seats in play. We predict 58 or 59 Senate Democrats in the next Congress, but 60 is within reach.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=29267
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On the issue of Missouri's 9th Congressional District:
All the pundits are drooling over Judy Baker, a Baptist minister's wife who plays the religious card like she's Sarah Palin's sister. MO-9 is heavily rural and is thought to be a Republican stronghold.
Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican running in this open seat (vacated because the incumbent - Kenny Hulshof (R)- is running for gov, which also looks dim, sayeth the pundits) looks weak and disorganized, though he's still in the running.
Baker is a one-trick pony - her claim to fame is managed health care (read HMO) businesswomen, which means she's grown comfortable in crafting policies that in effect dictate how people get medical care. Her thing is right up Obama's sleeve - a gummint health care system as only the gummint can **** it up.
Blaine may be weak and he may be disorganized, but he's all we have. The other candidate is a Libertarian who is rabidly against the Iraq effort, and she isn't an option.
Incidentally, there is some talk of Dems actually playing the religious card, just to entice the faith-based. Just how legitimate can THAT be?