The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2008 => Topic started by: bijou on September 19, 2008, 04:27:55 PM
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ARLINGTON, VA -- The McCain-Palin presidential campaign today announced the endorsement of Miguel D. Lausell, Senior Political Advisor to Hillary Clinton, and Clinton Delegate-at-Large Luchy Secaira.
"Although I supported Hillary during the primaries, I now support John McCain and Governor Palin because I am putting my country first," said Secaira, former Hillary Clinton Florida Delegate-at-Large. "They have the experience and judgment to lead America through these difficult times, and I trust them to work with Democrats to do the right thing for our country."
Lausell, who advised Senator Clinton on a variety of issues including international trade, telecommunications and Latino affairs, added, "John McCain has a long record of reforming government and working across the aisle to achieve bipartisan results. His courageous leadership is exactly what we need in the White House, and I am convinced that John McCain is the right leader at the right time for our nation."
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http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/6ad4a193-94c8-413c-94a4-3fb6d72a14ee.htm
(http://www.gochile.cl/spa/Guide/ChileFloraFauna/Fauna/Puma_lg.JPG)
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Here Kitty Kitty Kitty..... Nice Kitty..
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Hopefully these guys are respected in the latino community.
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Is the PUMA vote significant enough to derail Obama?
Although Palin has successfully changed the course...
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After some of the polls on racism that have been recently released. I wonder how many Pumas may be racist Dems.
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Is the PUMA vote significant enough to derail Obama?
Although Palin has successfully changed the course...
The last time they attempted to estimate the PUMAs the number came out as +- 6 million. A shift of 6 million reliable Democrat votes (Of which the PUMAs are -- most fall under the "likely voter" category) to the Republican Presidential ticket would create a gulf of 12 million votes. - Assuming 120 Million people actually do vote, that 10% shift is more than enough to change the election, as the difference between Democrat and Republican votes will probably be 4 to 5% at most, if one assumes no PUMAs exist.
Then there is the Bradley Effect to consider - Im certain that some PUMAs do fall under the Bradley Effect as well, but I would think there are still at least 2% more unconsidered voters.
There is ONE issue though that may make the PUMA vote less effective - Location - If the Bulk of PUMAs are in states that we will already take ,or are in states that we will never take, then the PUMAs only effect will be to add to vote totals, but not electoral college which is where they are needed the most. PUMAs, IMHO, explain the tightening of the race in states that went for Hillary in the primaries , like New York, California, etc.. BUt I suspect those states will remain in the Dem column at the end of the day.
The Bradley Effect however - that could be quite unpredictable.
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Is the PUMA vote significant enough to derail Obama?
Although Palin has successfully changed the course...
The last time they attempted to estimate the PUMAs the number came out as +- 6 million. A shift of 6 million reliable Democrat votes (Of which the PUMAs are -- most fall under the "likely voter" category) to the Republican Presidential ticket would create a gulf of 12 million votes. - Assuming 120 Million people actually do vote, that 10% shift is more than enough to change the election, as the difference between Democrat and Republican votes will probably be 4 to 5% at most, if one assumes no PUMAs exist.
Then there is the Bradley Effect to consider - Im certain that some PUMAs do fall under the Bradley Effect as well, but I would think there are still at least 2% more unconsidered voters.
There is ONE issue though that may make the PUMA vote less effective - Location - If the Bulk of PUMAs are in states that we will already take ,or are in states that we will never take, then the PUMAs only effect will be to add to vote totals, but not electoral college which is where they are needed the most. PUMAs, IMHO, explain the tightening of the race in states that went for Hillary in the primaries , like New York, California, etc.. BUt I suspect those states will remain in the Dem column at the end of the day.
The Bradley Effect however - that could be quite unpredictable.
I think the female vote could parallel the bradley effect. this is all anecdotal, of course, but I hear from a LOT of dem women that they are pissed off about the primary. it was a masterstroke when mccain tapped Sarah Palin; it gave a lot of fence sitters a place to go. and I think a lot of this is flying under the radar.