The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2008 => Topic started by: bijou on September 18, 2008, 11:16:20 AM
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Illinois
McCain Obama Other Undecided
Likely voters 45% 51% 1% 4%
Democrats (40%) 2% 96% - 2%
Republicans (32%) 95% 3% - 2%
Independents (28%) 49% 41% 2% 8%
Men (45%) 47% 47% 1% 5%
Women (55%) 43% 54% - 3%
18 to 49 (59%) 41% 54% 1% 4%
50 and older (41%) 51% 46% - 3%
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/IL08.html
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Surprisingly close for a home state advantage, I am sure the Chicago area will ensure the state delivers for him in the end, however, avoiding the nasty embarassment Manbearpig suffered when he lost Tennessee.
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wow. kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin. I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois.
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wow. kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin. I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois.
The racist vote is worth 5 points in the polls [/Obama mode]
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Look at that "Independents" line!!!! :hyper:
Also, please remember that the poll only interviewed living voters.
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wow. kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin. I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois.
Racist :p
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wow. kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin. I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois.
Racist :p
:rotf: I will run right out and enroll in sensitivity training. :wink:
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Found this link via FR http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5963
ARG is out with a bevy of national and state polls in the past few days which are interesting, to say the least. In the national numbers (note: scroll down to Sep 16th item) McCain is up 48-45, a 9 point shift since the end of August. But the internals are really interesting for Obama: McCain has gained 14 points with Democrats and Obama has lost 13 points! No wonder team Obama is worried.
This is important - the poll shows a large defection from Team Obama, and nearly all of them are going to McCain instead of stopping in the ‘undecided’ column. McCain is now getting nearly 20% of Dems! And the numbers are too large to be a sampling error problem. The size can be argued, but not the movement. And it looks to be women doing the moving:
McCain leads Obama 50% to 42% among men (47% of likely voters). Among women (53% of likely voters), Obama and McCain are tied at 47% each. In the August 30-September 1 survey, Obama was leading among women 52% to 40%.
...more...
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California = Obama 50% McCain 46% :popcorn:
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Found this link via FR http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5963
ARG is out with a bevy of national and state polls in the past few days which are interesting, to say the least. In the national numbers (note: scroll down to Sep 16th item) McCain is up 48-45, a 9 point shift since the end of August. But the internals are really interesting for Obama: McCain has gained 14 points with Democrats and Obama has lost 13 points! No wonder team Obama is worried.
This is important - the poll shows a large defection from Team Obama, and nearly all of them are going to McCain instead of stopping in the ‘undecided’ column. McCain is now getting nearly 20% of Dems! And the numbers are too large to be a sampling error problem. The size can be argued, but not the movement. And it looks to be women doing the moving:
McCain leads Obama 50% to 42% among men (47% of likely voters). Among women (53% of likely voters), Obama and McCain are tied at 47% each. In the August 30-September 1 survey, Obama was leading among women 52% to 40%.
...more...
the women's vote is a big part of it. in 2004, 54% of the turnout was female, and kerry won that demographic 51-48. white women went for kerry 55-44, and I suspect that the Palin Effect has turned that one around.
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Don't discount that there are lots of rural and small town folks outside of Chicago. I really wish Michigan or Indiana would annex Chicago.
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Don't discount that there are lots of rural and small town folks outside of Chicago. I really wish Michigan or Indiana would annex Chicago.
Indiana sure doesn't wish that! :-)
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Soiuthern and western IL can get pretty rural. Bloomington-Peoria-Normal is a nice area, but it's surrounded by nothing.
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Surrounded by nothing pretty much describes all the towns and cities scattered through Illinois. We have corn and bean fields within the city limits here.