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Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2008 => Topic started by: Splashdown on September 12, 2008, 08:15:22 PM

Title: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: Splashdown on September 12, 2008, 08:15:22 PM
At least among "likely voters"

Marist College/RCP poll (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/marist_NJ080912.pdf)


.John McCain/
Sarah Palin
the Republicans		Barack Obama/
Joe Biden
the Democrats		OtherUndecided
Likely voters w/ leaners45%48%<1%7%
Democrats10%83%<1%7%
Republicans87%9%<1%4%
Independents41%51%1%7%


This is too good to be true!  :-)
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: Jim on September 12, 2008, 08:22:10 PM
It may be.  I seem to recall that Dubya was pretty close in polls there last time and wound up not so much so.

But he's far closer than he should be in a lot of blue states.  Maybe we are heading to a repeat of McGovern.  A repudiation of liberalism would be wonderful.
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: GOBUCKS on September 12, 2008, 08:30:33 PM
If you add the Bradley effect independents, McCain is leading.

But you are right, in 2004 polls, for a while it looked like W might have a chance in NJ, but in the end John Eff'n took it with a fairly solid lead. This year, the Bradley effect is a potentially huge unknown in every state.
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: miskie on September 12, 2008, 08:40:04 PM
He may not win NJ - but if it makes Obama spend money there, it helps. Take the fight to Blueville.
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: Hawkgirl on September 12, 2008, 08:43:06 PM
Jersey is stretching it....I can't imagine Jersey going red any more than I can imagine New York going red.
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: Airwolf on September 12, 2008, 08:46:56 PM
Everyone forget the 1972 elections? I think Nixon won every state but Massachucetts and Washington D.C.

(http://www.presidentelect.org/images/e1972_ecmap.GIF)
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: GOBUCKS on September 12, 2008, 09:29:14 PM
Quote
Everyone forget the 1972 elections?

Remember it well, but it was a different political world. In 1972, the democrat party went crazy, nominated George McGovern, and has been the party of wackos and crazies ever since. Minorities and people addled by living in the teeming squalor of our coastlines are powerfully attracted by socialism.
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: Jim on September 12, 2008, 09:34:38 PM
Quote from: GOBUCKS on September 12, 2008, 08:30:33 PM
If you add the Bradley effect independents, McCain is leading.

But you are right, in 2004 polls, for a while it looked like W might have a chance in NJ, but in the end John Eff'n took it with a fairly solid lead. This year, the Bradley effect is a potentially huge unknown in every state.




The media is afraid to talk about it but you are right, its just out of view but will show itself in November in the only poll that matters.
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: Donpeyote on September 12, 2008, 09:49:38 PM
 If California fall under 10 %  it will be a big deal
Title: Re: Holy Crap! McCain only down by 3 in NJ?!?!?!?!?!
Post by: Airwolf on September 12, 2008, 11:47:39 PM
Quote from: GOBUCKS on September 12, 2008, 09:29:14 PM
Quote
Everyone forget the 1972 elections?

Remember it well, but it was a different political world. In 1972, the democrat party went crazy, nominated George McGovern, and has been the party of wackos and crazies ever since. Minorities and people addled by living in the teeming squalor of our coastlines are powerfully attracted by socialism.

True it was different. I'm just pointing out that even NJ and NY can vote Red given the right motivation to do so. Not likely to now or in the near future untill those states wake up and stop letting liberals dig them into a hole.