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Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2008 => Topic started by: Digger on September 07, 2008, 08:25:57 PM

Title: McCain +10
Post by: Digger on September 07, 2008, 08:25:57 PM
On Hannity's site for Gallup release tomorrow.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Chris on September 07, 2008, 08:31:18 PM
Welcome to our humble home.  Got a link?  :popcorn:
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Digger on September 07, 2008, 08:41:42 PM
Welcome to our humble home.  Got a link?  :popcorn:

Hi and thanks.   I don't know how to link, sorry but it's at his main forum and a site that has early poll data,
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Chris on September 07, 2008, 08:45:24 PM
Found it...

http://forums.hannity.com/showthread.php?t=843291
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
Quote
USA Today/Gallup 9/5-7/2008 McCain:54 Obama:44   +10
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Chris_ on September 07, 2008, 08:45:42 PM
Welcome to our humble home.  Got a link?  :popcorn:

Hi and thanks.   I don't know how to link, sorry but it's at his main forum and a site that has early poll data,

Just post the URL, the BB code will make it into a link.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: miskie on September 07, 2008, 08:54:10 PM
...I'm so glad I have tomorrow off  :hyper: The meltdown begins.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Chris on September 07, 2008, 08:57:46 PM
...I'm so glad I have tomorrow off  :hyper: The meltdown begins.

Even without Gallup's new poll, Obama is averaging less than a one-point lead over McCain. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Digger on September 07, 2008, 09:19:17 PM
...I'm so glad I have tomorrow off  :hyper: The meltdown begins.

Even without Gallup's new poll, Obama is averaging less than a one-point lead over McCain. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

It's exploding right now.  Very soon we'll see just how the dummies will react.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: franksolich on September 07, 2008, 09:33:56 PM
It's already started on Skins's island.

Brand-new, but probably most primitives won't get the news until tomorrow.

I'm busy and can't post the bonfire, sorry.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6980290
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Jim on September 07, 2008, 09:48:20 PM
oh my !   a real bounce !
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Baruch Menachem on September 07, 2008, 09:58:10 PM
I don't want to rain on the parade too much, but the political markets aren't moving yet, and those are better predictors than the polls.

At intrade Obama is at $5.60 per contract, down  cents McCain is at $4.40  up 19 cents.    Those who are into gambling, McCain might be a good buy.

<img src="http://data.intrade.com/graphing/closingChart.gif?contractId=376101&intradeChart=true&transBackground=true&transBackground=true" height="225" width="460"
alt="Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com"
title="Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com" border="0"> (http://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=376101)


At the University of Iowa, McCain is at 39 cents, Obama is at 62  cents.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Jim on September 07, 2008, 10:03:40 PM
...I'm so glad I have tomorrow off  :hyper: The meltdown begins.

Even without Gallup's new poll, Obama is averaging less than a one-point lead over McCain. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html



they've refreshed it, McC up 1.0
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Hawkgirl on September 07, 2008, 10:18:33 PM
 :-)

And the underdog comes up from behind and wins the race..... :-)
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: franksolich on September 08, 2008, 09:06:40 AM
You know, with all the brohuahua brewing and spewing all over Skins's island about polls, it's important to point out one of the most distinctive differences between the primitives and decent civilized people.

When the polls showed McCain dragging way behind, the reaction among decent civilized people was "Damn, there's a problem here, and we got to do something about it."

With the polls showing Barry "Six States" Obama lagging way behind, the reaction among the primitives is "Damn, the polls are crooked, the polls are biased, the polls are inaccurate."

In other words, decent civilized people look at the reality of a situation, and if it's a bad reality, they try to change it.....while primitives form an idea of what reality "should be," and if reality doesn't match what the primitives think it should be, the primitives decide some malicious force is in action, obstructing their reality from being reality.

It's sort of like decent civilized people first observe, and then form conclusions, while primitives form first conclusions, and never get around to observing.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Digger on September 08, 2008, 09:55:16 AM
McCain pulled ahead of BO overnight on intrade.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: miskie on September 08, 2008, 09:59:10 AM
McCain pulled ahead of BO overnight on intrade.

right now McCain is a point and change behind on Intrade but that is major movement. Mccain was hanging at a +- 42/58 deficit last night when I last looked, as its been for the last few days. before that it was hovering at McCain down 40/60
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: bijou on September 08, 2008, 11:05:32 AM
Quote
McCain’s Betfair price moves above 40%
September 8th, 2008



Could they both be heading towards evens?
The chart shows the changing John McCain price on the heavily-traded Betfair betting exchange over the past 24 hours.

There’s no doubt where the money is going - on John McCain who is now at his highest level ever on this market.

My approach to this is to bet against Obama rather than for McCain so you are covered in the event of something untoward happening to the GOP nominee. You would also prosper if, for whatever reason, Obama was umable to complete the course. If this sounds doom-laden it is your money that you are risking.

Live White House race betting prices.

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/08/mccains-betfair-price-moves-above-40/
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: DumbAss Tanker on September 08, 2008, 12:08:31 PM
Pleasant news, but honestly polls really mean Jack at this point.  Almost two months of potentials for campaign-ending screw-ups still remain.  I'm counting on Joe Biden to come through bigger than anyone else on that one, and drag his team down.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Tess Anderson on September 08, 2008, 09:44:52 PM
Intrade did get every race right a couple of years ago, but that was on the final results, what the market closed on Election Day. Before that, it fluctuated widely, and was "wrong" more often than not.

What I'm trying to say is that Intrade is more reactive than predictive.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Baruch Menachem on September 08, 2008, 10:48:42 PM
VEry true, but the reaction right now is very intense.

There is a huge bid/ask spread on Obama right now, about a dollar.

And it is interesting to note that Obama is sinking faster than McCain is rising too.  I'd like to know the cause of that too.
Title: Re: McCain +10
Post by: Chris on September 08, 2008, 10:56:31 PM
In polls conducted since Saturday, McCain is leading with an average of 2.9%.  His numbers have been rising since the convention, while Barry's have been dropping an equal amount.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html