The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: dutch508 on April 19, 2021, 05:30:48 PM
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politruk (47 posts) [see below]
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215351720
No, we're not going to have a civil war. Not one that lasts more than a day.
When the Southern states seceded from the Union, they were still states -- organized, functioning political entities with taxing authority, in a position to form and fund a real army, with real professional officers and hundreds of thousands of enlisted men -- an army capable of putting up a credible fight against the United States Army for four years.
But the present political divide in America is not between states, it is within states -- between traditionalist rural areas and cosmopolitan urban areas. You can't make a civil war out of that, only a culture war in the suburbs and exurbs. If every private militia club in the United States were to gather in one place and join forces under a unified command, they would not last 15 minutes against any state's National Guard. Considering how much military equipment (and, presumably, training) local police departments have been acquiring in the past decade, they probably could not even put up a fight against the local police or sheriff's department.
So, what's all this talk of civil war? What does anybody think can actually happen, that would amount to one?
You assume the National Guard and the Regular Military would choose your side...
Star Member uponit7771 (76,090 posts)
49. So 1/6 didn't happen? thx in advance
Star Member PoindexterOglethorpe (19,048 posts)
50. Where exactly did I say that?
January 6 was NOT a Civil War. Although I suppose a Six Hour War is possible, sort of like the Six Days War.
But when people are talking about another Civil War, it's pretty clear they are picturing something more or less like the one a century and a half ago. And that's simply not going to happen.
Star Member Ocelot II (93,499 posts)
2. Whatever happens, if anything does, might be more like Northern Ireland
from the '60s to the '90s. Which would also suck.
Star Member TreasonousBastard (37,659 posts)
3. The problem is if they recruit enough Guardsmen and local police. Oathkeepers could...
just be the tip.
TheRealNorth (3,174 posts)
24. Exactly
This is the flaw in the OP's argument. They are presuming that that Guard and Police will follow orders. They are also presuming that there won't be governors and other politicians that the police/guard report to that won't join the insurrection.
Star Member brush (34,878 posts)
27. And you're assuming they will?
There will be no civil war. There might be OKC incidents here and there...guerilla warfare-type incidents with militia in their pick-up trucks, but massed forces against the Nat'l Guard?
Nah. Not gonna happen. However many wingers are on police forces, they are nowhere near the majority.
Those overweight, middle aged guys in camo carrying AR-15s will be exhausted after a week in the field and will wish to hell they had stayed in basement continuing to imagine "watering the tree of liberty" with blood, as long as it isn't theirs'.
:yawn:
Star Member CrackityJones75 (156 posts)
6. We are already in one.
What do you think these shooting massacres are? Sure some of them are incels but many of them are people wanting to punish liberal ideology.
Really? Wasn't aware of any RIGHTWING MURDER SQUADS conducting operations lately...
Star Member uponit7771 (76,090 posts)
42. How is that not whistling past the graveyard? Regardless of whether we've normalized racism
... or low level civil wars or insurgencies etc it is what the definition these things say they are.
We can go through the process of renaming everything but when we look at things in their definition shit is going down.
This is like what happened BEFORE 1/6 when Trump started firing defense personal, there should've been hollering and screaming then ... no people want to say those things are "normal"
No, its time to start hollering and screaming even when the cattle our out of the barnyard
1/6 changed everything for me, we're not the same country any longer seeing there's a good portion of the people who don't believe in what the bill of rights says it wants for Americans.
Star Member brush (34,878 posts)
47. Columbine happened in 1999. Sure is taking these civil warriors a long time...
to get it together.
Hogwash.
It's no organized, low-level civil war. It's what we see several times a week. Some deranged, lone gunman with a perceived grievance gets a hold of an assault rifle and starts blasting away at the place he targets.
These shootings are not a part of a whole. They're just another mass shooting in America where there have been 47 already this year, and that doesn't included the hundreds of shootings where there were three or less people killed (like the two three-person shootings yesterday). What they are are separate, unrelated incidents that happen and will continue to happen in a nation flooded with easily accessible guns and republicans unwilling to pass sensible gun laws.
It's no war.
Star Member uponit7771 (76,090 posts)
48. Don't know what the reference to Columbine means ... that didn't involve flag officers of the US
... military and the president of the united states like 1/6 did.
Your OP started out with "No, we're not going to have a civil war ..." which didn't include massacre shootings by themselves like Columbine (if that was the meaning of the reference) ... maybe not if that was the only factor, its not.
Also
You said "You can't make a civil war out of that, only a culture war in the suburbs and exurbs... " in your OP.
This is text book false, Spain and Syria started out very similar to this historically including Rwanda
:yawn:
Star Member brush (34,878 posts)
59. Oh, so you're not including the mass shootings with the Jan. 6...
Last edited Mon Apr 19, 2021, 05:56 PM - Edit history (1)
day-trip outting/insurrgency like many of the other posters on this thread are?
Ok, fair enough. I'm not either. Neither are part of a low-level civil war. Jan. 6 was a field trip/vacation day off from work for magats answering a fool, defeated president's call to help keep him in power. It failed. I don't care if some Proud Boys in orange caps/vest, or Oath Keepers in camo were there keeping in touch with each other by cell phone, it failed and they all went home after celebrating over a good meal and foolishly published selfies of themselves online committing crimes.
Como on. Those were no civil warriors. They were cosplay actors pretending. Where's the follow up attack? Reservoirs, food supply lines, power plants are unguarded for the most part—soft targets, easy pickings. Any serious, organized force would've already done that. And who is their leader now that trump has washed his hands of them except grifting them for more donation money online than they intended.
He's lawyered up and trying to save his ass from going to jail when he's not on the golf course.There's no one else who can get those clowns to come another "mass" cosplay outting.
We're going too far with this. Those out-of-shape, weekend warriors would be exhausted after a week in the field against state troopers, not to mention the Nat'l guard with tanks and helicopers and actual intelligence monitoring them knowing who they are and where they live already.
:whatever:
Star Member brush (34,878 posts)
64. You know as well as I do that many of those people took a...
vacation day from work to be there. It was a day-trip outting for them and they got caught up in the fever from trump and Mo Brooks and Ghouliani and Jr. exhorting them at the rally to march on the Capitol.
Most have learned to regret it. especially the ones who've been apprehended. The Proud Boys and Oath Keepers certainly have not followed up with their promises to come back, or any other follow-up action for that matter. Looks like they've shot their load already, even with all the soft targets out there.
Star Member uponit7771 (76,090 posts)
70. First major battle of the civil war happened 6 months after the south succeeded. (link)
.. civil wars are varied and wide in deliberation.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/02/capitol-riot-january-6-trauma-terror-attack.html
Sumpter was 2 months after the south succeeded
1/6 was different, that's a fact not in dispute
sarisataka (11,936 posts)
52. If it was so well coordinated
Why didn't it succeed? That wasn't the day for a dress rehearsal, it was the big game. Trump is out, their opportunity is gone. It is exponentially harder to put someone in to power than to keep the person who is already there.
Star Member uponit7771 (76,090 posts)
67. No, ... no they didn't. I know tons of people who are scared shitless of those terrorist and their
... sympathizers in congress and on FAUX News.
You're 100% wrong on that one, text book terrorism along with the PTSD from it including members of congress
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/02/capitol-riot-january-6-trauma-terror-attack.html
::)
Star Member 0rganism (23,364 posts)
15. problem with this analysis is the reliance on sane law enforcement
here are the forces you list to protect us from right-wing insurrectionist death squad militias:
state National Guard
local police department
local sheriff's department
what happens if those organizations are aligned with the insurrectionists? saturated with fascists and bloodthirsty self-styled "patriots"? that is the problem, and apparently it's a real documented problem that we ignore at our peril.
Star Member 2naSalit (49,141 posts)
19. I wasn't referring to that...
We already have a constabulary that perceives the public as the enemy and they act upon that belief with impunity, half the Congress is not performing its duties in good faith and are actively working to overthrow the government from within and a rag tag military of trained ne'er do wells and criminals to attack us along with other tactics of warfare...
So what is it other than a civil war?
It sure looks like one to me from over here in the cheap seats.
Star Member Blue 808 (1,501 posts)
60. This... exactly..
THEY have already declared war on We the People, and it's surreal to me that many on our side do not see it..
Star Member Kaleva (27,433 posts)
25. the fact so many were turned in by family, friends and co-workers doesn't bode well for them
Another fact is that many of them are out of touch with the real world and thus cannot formulate a strategy that has any chance of success because that strategy would be based on falsehoods.
Star Member brush (34,878 posts)
29. Exactly. There are not as many of these militia revolutionaries out there...
as some are imagining. We saw many of them on Jan. 6 having a day trip field day. Then they went to their motels, celebrated over a meal and went home the next day to unload their exploits online.
Seriously?
They had a great day until the FBI knocked on their door.
Star Member Initech (87,164 posts)
35. Oh they talk trash about it, but the Oaf Creepers would never fire a shot.
Why? They have jobs and lives and families like we do. A civil war would end all of that. Even their martial law fantasies would end all of that. They're just keyboard warriors, nothing more.
Star Member brooklynite (69,531 posts)
44. It starts with "all police are racists" and bounces to "the police will join with the militias"
A silly broad-brush stereotype.
politruk (47 posts)
63. I really can't see any scenario
in which the U.S. Armed Forces, including the NG, are so politically divided as to subvert discipline and the chain of command. To use state troops in a civil war requires GENERALS sign on for it, and ours won't.
In the military, a political commissar or political officer (or politruk, a portmanteau word from Russian: политический руководитель, pronounced politicheskiy rukovoditel, translated "political leader", "political official"), is a supervisory officer responsible for the political education (ideology) and organization of the unit they are assigned to, this being intended to ensure civilian control of the military.
Interesting choice of a name on a political forum...
Star Member uponit7771 (76,090 posts)
71. A flag officer that IS STILL SERVING was part of slowing the NG response to the attack on capital ..
... building and happens to be the brother of an admitted traitor to the country.
No, I think people are whistling past the grave yard on 1/6.
1/6 was different and never has happened in US history
:yawn:
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Initech (87,164 posts)
35. Oh they talk trash about it, but the Oaf Creepers would never fire a shot.
Why? They have jobs and lives and families like we do.
Remind what cancel culture and vaccine passports are supposed to do, again. 🤔
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Wow! That rabbit hole is deeper than Alice's! And curiouser.