The Conservative Cave
Current Events => The DUmpster => Topic started by: franksolich on October 05, 2016, 06:29:10 PM
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028208457
Oh dear.
We're in trouble.
PCIntern (16,221 posts) Wed Oct 5, 2016, 06:36 PM
Those of you who know me know that I don't make shit up.
Today I had a very interesting patient who told me some very good news:
This guy is a sports statistician: people in professional sports pay him ungodly sums to figure out various propositions and whether they would benefit the team or not. The film Moneyball was based on some of the fundamental premises under which these guys work
But guess what he does in his "spare time"? He handicaps elections based upon aspects of polls which we, the public, never get to see, such as the sampling and the rationale for such sampling. He told me in no uncertain terms that any state in which Trump is leading by four points or fewer, he will lose and that the professionals in the business are expecting a win by Mrs. Clinton of at LEAST the proportion of the 2008 victory by President Obama if not greater.
Further, he agreed that the statement made by Chuck Todd was correct: that the polls which showed the race tightening utilized fallacious methodology. Gross undersampling of Democrats for example.
This is good news if true. I have no reason to doubt his professional judgement.
misterhighwasted (8,186 posts) Wed Oct 5, 2016, 06:50 PM
7. Wow..in that case we may indeed see a landslide victory for President and
a few extra surprises for the Senate & House.
The strategic method of the Clinton campaign has been skill & genius from the first day. Thank you John Podesta & team.
The difficulty level of this election for team Hilary was always off the charts & it has been the meticulous attention to every single move made and word spoken that carried her beyond all obstacles put before her on this path to the WhiteHouse.
Wow..
MADem (132,267 posts) Wed Oct 5, 2016, 06:42 PM
2. I get a feeling that guy knows what he is talking about
:panic: :panic: :panic: :panic: :panic:
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Proctology Intern reached far and deep to yank that turd of a bouncy out.
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The long absent bouncy dentist must have read about the DOTY nominations coming soon.
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Proctology Intern reached far and deep to yank that turd of a bouncy out.
I'm curious.
In which polls have Democrats been undersampled?
I was under the distinct impression the opposite's the case.
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The long absent bouncy dentist must have read about the DOTY nominations coming soon.
Well, if he turns out wrong, he's definitely got my vote, not least because he's old enough and smart enough to know that lying always comes to a bad end.
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For those not familiar PC would post endlessly about all the repukes that visited his office daily and weekly and how he would humble them in front of a cheering waiting room of patients,often at 6:30 AM.
He left the DUmp for a while after finally discovering how most DUmbasses would have cheerfully loaded the trains during the Holocaust.
Guess democrat antisemitism doesn`t mean as much to him any more.
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Guess democrat antisemitism doesn`t mean as much to him any more.
Uh huh, apparently not.
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I'm curious.
In which polls have Democrats been undersampled?
I was under the distinct impression the opposite's the case.
Exactly -
And not only are Democrats oversampled, the phone pollsters target Democrats who live in urban areas to get the results they want. Suburban Blue collar Dems are almost never polled. - because they have seen their share of the pie shrink under Obama. Whereas the moocher class is still moochin' away and doesn't want the free stuff spigot shut off anytime soon.
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Uh huh, apparently not.
I noticed him trying to worm back in this past July or August.
Dennis is his name I think without looking at the dossiers.
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I noticed him trying to worm back in this past July or August.
Dennis is his name I think without looking at the dossiers.
I thought it was "Chris," and it's in the records somewhere, but I can't find it.
comment 2681 and those following:
http://conservativecave.com/index.php?topic=81827.0
I was always disappointed because given the way his hair used to be, we might as well have been brothers. And his neck would've done the Nebraska Cornhuskers football team some good.
It's disheartening to realize he's older than he used to be, and is probably pretty stodgy too.
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I thought it was "Chris," and it's in the records somewhere, but I can't find it.
comment 2681 and those following:
http://conservativecave.com/index.php?topic=81827.0
I was always disappointed because given the way his hair used to be, we might as well have been brothers. And his neck would've done the Nebraska Cornhuskers football team some good.
It's disheartening to realize he's older than he used to be, and is probably pretty stodgy too.
Found his file.
http://conservativecave.com/index.php?topic=81827.msg1241497#msg1241497
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Found his file.
http://conservativecave.com/index.php?topic=81827.msg1241497#msg1241497
Oh. I went through things too fast; I was wrong about his real name.
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Oh. I went through things too fast; I was wrong about his real name.
Me too,was thinking about long gone DUmp loon named Dennis.
They all kind of blend together after a while.
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I remember a comedian many years back who said that you could always tell a liar because they'd either begin or end their lie with something along the lines of "I ain't lying."
PCIntern (16,221 posts) Wed Oct 5, 2016, 06:36 PM
Those of you who know me know that I don't make shit up.
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I remember a comedian many years back who said that you could always tell a liar because they'd either begin or end their lie with something along the lines of "I ain't lying."
Uh, according to the weather map, you and yours need to be in shelter, sir.
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Uh, according to the weather map, you and yours need to be in shelter, sir.
We're under a hurricane watch now. It's not suppose to be bad until Friday. Unless the rain comes I'll be working in the morning. Probably near the coast. But I am keeping an eye on things.
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Let me get this straight, the guy claims to be a statistician, and his core data is coming from medial polls?
Is this kind alike the chiropractor of the math world?
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Let me get this straight, the guy claims to be a statistician, and his core data is coming from medial polls?
Is this kind alike the chiropractor of the math world?
You missed "truth is all" the lunatics mage of demented statisticians.
So insane he was banned more then once at the DUmp.
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You missed "truth is all" the lunatics mage of demented statisticians.
So insane he was banned more then once at the DUmp.
Used to have his site bookmarked, haven't looked in a long time. The lunacy was still spewing from TIA as of a couple years ago.
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You missed "truth is all" the lunatics mage of demented statisticians.
So insane he was banned more then once at the DUmp.
Yeah. If I remember correctly he used his statistics to prove the dems have won every US presidential election since before there was even a US.
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Used to have his site bookmarked, haven't looked in a long time. The lunacy was still spewing from TIA as of a couple years ago.
He is still at it - His last posts were in defense of Jill Stein, because the MSM is hiding her true polling numbers to keep her out of the debates to protect HRC.. Seriously.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/
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Yeah. If I remember correctly he used his statistics to prove the dems have won every US presidential election since before there was even a US.
Not this time..
His last blog post indicates that because of the MSM protecting HRC from Jill Stein, the MSM are actually stopping a Trump landslide victory as a side effect. he believes that Stein would wield enough power to toss the election to Trump.
Obviously, he is an unhappy Bernout.
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He is still at it - His last posts were in defense of Jill Stein, because the MSM is hiding her true polling numbers to keep her out of the debates to protect HRC.. Seriously.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/
Ok yea, 30 seconds of reading that drivel and it's official: he's a certified wack job. He must share garage space with Alex Jones
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I'm curious.
In which polls have Democrats been undersampled?
I was under the distinct impression the opposite's the case.
Same here, I'm registered independent so I'm getting calls to support the hildabeast but they hang up on me when I tell them my thoughts about her. :fuelfire:
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(http://www.retroland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Magic-8-Ball.jpg)
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Quote from: franksolich on October 05, 2016, 06:34:43 PM
I'm curious.
In which polls have Democrats been undersampled?
I was under the distinct impression the opposite's the case.
Same here.
Exactly -
And not only are Democrats oversampled, the phone pollsters target Democrats who live in urban areas to get the results they want. Suburban Blue collar Dems are almost never polled. - because they have seen their share of the pie shrink under Obama. Whereas the moocher class is still moochin' away and doesn't want the free stuff spigot shut off anytime soon.
Lot's of wishful thinking, Methinks.
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Lot's of wishful thinking, Methinks.
They are doing what they always do - making up GOTV bouncies to motivate their own.
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misterhighwasted (8,186 posts) Wed Oct 5, 2016, 06:50 PM
7. Wow..in that case we may indeed see a landslide victory for President and
a few extra surprises for the Senate & House.
The strategic method of the Clinton campaign has been skill & genius from the first day. Thank you John Podesta & team.
The difficulty level of this election for team Hilary was always off the charts & it has been the meticulous attention to every single move made and word spoken that carried her beyond all obstacles put before her on this path to the WhiteHouse.
Wow..
Literally carried...or dragged.
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0226/7001/files/Stairs-are-a-real-problem-for-Hillary-Clinton_large.jpg?16923674414209682640)