Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age

[TheSarge]

Snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966.

The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February. According to the NCDC, the average temperature in January "was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average."

China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century. Temperatures in the normally balmy south were so low for so long that some middle-sized cities went days and even weeks without electricity because once power lines had toppled it was too cold or too icy to repair them.

There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real estate market has felt the pinch as home buyers have stayed home rather than venturing out looking for new houses.

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=332289

[djones520]

Temps here in Northern Japan have been below the Average by as much as 3 degrees F.  Snowfall has been above average by a substantial amount.

[Crazy Horse]

Do ya'll dumb neocons understand the damn difference between weather and Global Climate Change??

Do you not understand that we have like 100 years of data points and they all conclude that we are destroying the earth and making it warm, by cow farts and SUV's and Chimpys oil buddies. With that 100 years of data we can prove this with peer reviewed (by the same people seeking the same federal dollars) research.

Nothing you post or say will change my mind, I am right and you are wrong.

Now quit your neocon delusions and accept that Global Climate Change is occuring and that we humans............especially us evil Amerikans are the main cause.

This is just one data point over the hundred years and people like Al Gore know more about the climate than anyone else out their. Look he won the nobel Prize due to his vast knowledge.

Personally I sure wish it was a little warmer here today.

[Attero Dominatus]

TNO will show up and spew global warming propaganda in 3...2...1

[Chris_]

TNO will show up and spew global warming propaganda in 3...2...1

...and the only way to control globalwarming is with taxes....lots and lots of 'em.
 

[The Night Owl]

OK, so one winter does not a climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades.

[djones520]

OK, so one winter does not a climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades.

One summer of bad hurricanes is enough to prove Global Warming to a lot of people though.

[Chris_]

OK, so one winter does not a climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades.

One summer of bad hurricanes is enough to prove Global Warming to a lot of people though.

...and predictions of record numbers of major hurricanes...that never materialized.

[DixieBelle]

The Gorons have never been bothered with the facts so....

[The Night Owl]

One summer of bad hurricanes is enough to prove Global Warming to a lot of people though.

People on both sides of the global warming argument make bad assumptions based on the weather.

[djones520]

One summer of bad hurricanes is enough to prove Global Warming to a lot of people though.

People on both sides of the global warming argument make bad assumptions based on the weather.

The point is, that everytime people start getting up in arms about how horrible Global Warming is going to be, something happens that completely nullifies that point.  Hurricanes are going to start getting worse, yet that fell through the floor.  Global temps will start rising.  Yet this is a record setting winter world-wide.

The fact of the matter is, that we don't know what the hell is going on.  We don't know whats going to happen, when it's going to happen, or how it's going to happen.  If we can't forecast how the atmopshere is going to affect one area more then a week out, we CANNOT forecast how the atmopshere is going to change worldwide 50 years from now.  It's that damn simple.

I work with forecasting models every day.  I know how they work.  I know how unreliable they can be.  I know that every year, when seasons shift, the models get all thrown out of whack and are completely unreliable.  I know how 1 single station reporting bad data can screw everything up for that region.

Climate models are no differant.  They are just as fragile.  Capable of being just as wrong.  One little thing can screw them up.  Putting any faith in a Climate Model is like putting faith in Bill Clinton sticking to monogomy.  Not something I'm gonna put my money on.

[The Night Owl]

...and predictions of record numbers of major hurricanes...that never materialized.

The past few years of hurricanes don't tell us much about climate change, but the past 35 years of hurricanes might...

Warming world blamed for more strong hurricanes
19:00 15 September 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Fred Pearce

A massive global increase in the number of strong hurricanes over the past 35 years is being blamed on global warming, by the most detailed study yet. The US scientists warn that Katrina-strength hurricanes could become the norm.

Worldwide since the 1970s, there has been a near-doubling in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms – the strength that saw Hurricane Katrina do such damage to the US Gulf coastline late in August 2005.

Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, says the trend is global, has lasted over several decades and is connected to a steady worldwide increase in tropical sea temperatures. Because of all these factors, it is unlikely to be due to any known natural fluctuations in climate such as El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

...

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8002

[djones520]

According to NOAA (published last month) the warming of global oceans will actually reduce the number of hurricanes.

Overall, warming in the Pacific and Indian oceans is of greater impact and produces increased levels of vertical wind shear which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080122_warmeroceans.html

Please, oh please tell me that NOAA is not a reliable source. 

[The Night Owl]

The point is, that everytime people start getting up in arms about how horrible Global Warming is going to be, something happens that completely nullifies that point.  Hurricanes are going to start getting worse, yet that fell through the floor.  Global temps will start rising.  Yet this is a record setting winter world-wide.

So, basically, you are saying that people are silly to argue that one bad season of hurricanes proves that global warming is happening but people are right to argue that one mild season of hurricanes proves that global warming is not happening. You can't have it both ways.

[The Night Owl]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080122_warmeroceans.html

Please, oh please tell me that NOAA is not a reliable source. 

NOAA is great.

I never claimed that scientists are all in agreement about how global warming affects hurricane activity. How hurricane activity relates to global warming is a controversial topic in climate science.

[djones520]

The point is, that everytime people start getting up in arms about how horrible Global Warming is going to be, something happens that completely nullifies that point.  Hurricanes are going to start getting worse, yet that fell through the floor.  Global temps will start rising.  Yet this is a record setting winter world-wide.

So, basically, you are saying that people are silly to argue that one bad season of hurricanes proves that global warming is happening, but people are right to argue that one mild season of hurricanes proves that global warming is not happening. You can't have it both ways.

One?  Try 2.  Global Warming alarmists around the world have forecasted the last 2 seasons to be worse then 2005.  Both where extremely quiet.

[djones520]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080122_warmeroceans.html

Please, oh please tell me that NOAA is not a reliable source. 

NOAA is great.

I never claimed that scientists are all in agreement about how global warming affects hurricane activity. How hurricane activity relates to global warming is a controversial topic in climate science.

AGW itself is a controversial topic.  There is no agreement on it at all.  The concensus does not exist.

[The Night Owl]

One?  Try 2.  Global Warming alarmists around the world have forecasted the last 2 seasons to be worse then 2005.  Both where extremely quiet.

I don't know what alarmists have been predicting, but scientists have been predicting the possibility of increased hurricane activity.

[Crazy Horse]

The point is, that everytime people start getting up in arms about how horrible Global Warming is going to be, something happens that completely nullifies that point.  Hurricanes are going to start getting worse, yet that fell through the floor.  Global temps will start rising.  Yet this is a record setting winter world-wide.

So, basically, you are saying that people are silly to argue that one bad season of hurricanes proves that global warming is happening, but people are right to argue that one mild season of hurricanes proves that global warming is not happening. You can't have it both ways.

2005 was a bad year for hurricanes, since then there hasn't been a bad year.

Warming world blamed for more strong hurricanes
19:00 15 September 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Fred Pearce

A massive global increase in the number of strong hurricanes over the past 35 years is being blamed on global warming, by the most detailed study yet. The US scientists warn that Katrina-strength hurricanes could become the norm.

Worldwide since the 1970s, there has been a near-doubling in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms – the strength that saw Hurricane Katrina do such damage to the US Gulf coastline late in August 2005.

Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, says the trend is global, has lasted over several decades and is connected to a steady worldwide increase in tropical sea temperatures. Because of all these factors, it is unlikely to be due to any known natural fluctuations in climate such as El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

...

Amazing thing is that we have better equipment over the last 35 years to jusdge a storms strength better. Hell in 1989 a P3 Hurricane Hunter did a low level insertion into Hugo since everything they (NOAA) had said it was a Cat 1-2 storm...............well after almost becoming a statistic and another lost hunter.............they found out that it was a Cat 5. If it wasn't for the USAF hunter they never would have left the eye alive. That aircraft made repeated insertions looking for a soft spot and also did a couple close fly bys of the P3 to access damage within the eye of Hugo.

Though ever since 2005 the predicitions have always been worst case, almost as if some are wishing for it.

[Chris_]

...and predictions of record numbers of major hurricanes...that never materialized.

The past few years of hurricanes don't tell us much about climate change, but the past 35 years of hurricanes might...

Warming world blamed for more strong hurricanes
19:00 15 September 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Fred Pearce

A massive global increase in the number of strong hurricanes over the past 35 years is being blamed on global warming, by the most detailed study yet. The US scientists warn that Katrina-strength hurricanes could become the norm.

Worldwide since the 1970s, there has been a near-doubling in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms – the strength that saw Hurricane Katrina do such damage to the US Gulf coastline late in August 2005.

Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, says the trend is global, has lasted over several decades and is connected to a steady worldwide increase in tropical sea temperatures. Because of all these factors, it is unlikely to be due to any known natural fluctuations in climate such as El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

...

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8002

35 years is a drop in the bucket.  No where near enough data to predict future weather.

BTW, "I never claimed that..." is getting old.  Maybe it's time for a new tactic.

[DumbAss Tanker]

OK, so one winter does not a climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades.

Nor does a decade or ten, really.

[VelvetElvis]

...and predictions of record numbers of major hurricanes...that never materialized.

The past few years of hurricanes don't tell us much about climate change, but the past 35 years of hurricanes might...

Warming world blamed for more strong hurricanes
19:00 15 September 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Fred Pearce

A massive global increase in the number of strong hurricanes over the past 35 years is being blamed on global warming, by the most detailed study yet. The US scientists warn that Katrina-strength hurricanes could become the norm.

Worldwide since the 1970s, there has been a near-doubling in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms – the strength that saw Hurricane Katrina do such damage to the US Gulf coastline late in August 2005.

Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, says the trend is global, has lasted over several decades and is connected to a steady worldwide increase in tropical sea temperatures. Because of all these factors, it is unlikely to be due to any known natural fluctuations in climate such as El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

...

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8002

Storms Vary With Cycles, Experts Say

By KENNETH CHANG

Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, it is easy to assume that the recent rise in their number and ferocity is because of global warming.

But that is not the case, scientists say. Instead, the severity of hurricane seasons changes with cycles of temperatures of several decades in the Atlantic Ocean. The recent onslaught "is very much natural," said William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University who issues forecasts for the hurricane season.

From 1970 to 1994, the Atlantic was relatively quiet, with no more than three major hurricanes in any year and none at all in three of those years. Cooler water in the North Atlantic strengthened wind shear, which tends to tear storms apart before they turn into hurricanes.

In 1995, hurricane patterns reverted to the active mode of the 1950's and 60's. From 1995 to 2003, 32 major hurricanes, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater, stormed across the Atlantic. It was chance, Dr. Gray said, that only three of them struck the United States at full strength.

Historically, the rate has been 1 in 3.

http://talk.livedaily.com/archive/index.php/t-492574.html

Try again...