Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

[Kyle Ricky]

State   Last 3 Polls   Projected Winner
COLORADO   47, 46, 49   Romney
CONNECTICUT   51, 54, 54   Obama
FLORIDA   48, 49, 46   Romney
IOWA   49, 48, 51   Romney
MICHIGAN   49, 46, 48   Romney
MINNESOTA   53, 48, 51   Obama
NEVADA   51, 47, 47   Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE   48, 47, 54   Romney
NEW MEXICO   54, 51, 51   Obama
NORTH CAROLINA   48, 41, 47   Romney
OHIO   48, 45, 51   Romney
PENNSYLVANIA   51, 50, 47   Romney
VIRGINIA   47, 51, 50   Romney
WISCONSIN   50, 51, 49   Obama

Read more at http://www.reagancoalition.com/articles/2012/20121011005-obama-romney.html#62egOXM7G85gFVvg.99



God, I am begging you; please let this be true .. Amen ...

[franksolich]

Well, it looks more realistic than that damned Real Clear Politics map, which shows North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas "leaning" Romney, rather than solid for Romney. 

It's the backbone of America, those states running north-to-south in the center--North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas--and they're deep red.

Also the Real Clear Politics map shows South Carolina "maybe leaning" Romney.

Yeah, right.

Somebody's perception of reality seems a little, uh, foggy.

[Lacarnut]

The thrill is gone and Obama is going to get his ass kicked. Only 25 more days.

[BlueStateSaint]

The latest University of Colorado at Boulder projection has NM going to Romney.

[Kyle Ricky]

The latest University of Colorado at Boulder projection has NM going to Romney.

If that is the case, then Romney will get 332, and obama will get 206. That is a blow out, and obama won't be able to contest it.

[RightNow]

I don't want to be a party pooper, but I've been biting my nails the past several weeks as to what effect if any, would voter fraud play into these numbers?  Some states and there election processes (like OH) have me a little nervous that there are some serious shenanigans in play.   

[Dori]

I don't want to be a party pooper, but I've been biting my nails the past several weeks as to what effect if any, would voter fraud play into these numbers?  Some states and there election processes (like OH) have me a little nervous that there are some serious shenanigans in play.  

You and me both.  I don't put any stock into polls.  I don't want to get my hopes up.  How many days/weeks was it after the 2000 Bush/Gore election before we knew who won?

This election needs to be decisive either way.  Even in the event of fraud.  Hugh Hewitt wrote a book last election called "If it's not close they can't cheat".

We don't need any ambiguity...I also worry about riots if Obama loses in a close race.

[J P Sousa]

Well, estimates of voter fraud in Philadelphia are about 10%.

  News accounts place the highest estimate of fraudulently registered voters at 10 percent of all voters, roughly 80,000 in 1993

http://archives.citypaper.net/articles/101295/article009.shtml
 

Depending how may dems have reproduced vs abortions since 1993, it could be worse today.
.

[Kyle Ricky]

In light of the past couple of days I am going to add Wisconsin to this. So with New Mexico and that added, it will be 342 for Romney and 196 for obama.

[J P Sousa]

You and me both.  I don't put any stock into polls.  I don't want to get my hopes up.  How many days/weeks was it after the 2000 Bush/Gore election before we knew who won?

That was only because the democrats tried to change the election laws AFTER election, which still makes me angry.

This election needs to be decisive either way.  Even in the event of fraud.  Hugh Hewitt wrote a book last election called "If it's not close they can't cheat".

We don't need any ambiguity...I also worry about riots if Obama loses in a close race.

[Kyle Ricky]

That was only because the democrats tried to change the election laws AFTER election, which still makes me angry.

Yeah, Al Gore's main problem was that he won the popular vote but not the Electoral Vote. Since then, he (as other liberals) have been trying to get rid of the EV.

[BattleHymn]

RCP just put NC back into toss-up.

 

[Kyle Ricky]

RCP just put NC back into toss-up.

 

Eh? Romney is ahead in the polls there. That is stupid.

[BigTex]

 

I understand wishing for this type of landslide but if you think theres a realistic possibility its going to happen I think you will be disappointed. Romney isnt spending any money in PA, MI, WI, and NM. Neither the Obama or Romney campaigns have spent any money in Michigan. The only thing keeping the polls close is conservative super PACs have spent a ton there and the democrat super PACs have hardly spent anything. The best case I see for Romney is he is able to pull out WI and NV and end up with 301. I see Romney with a comfortable 285 and very little chance the outcome is ever in doubt.

[BigTex]

You and me both.  I don't put any stock into polls.  I don't want to get my hopes up.  How many days/weeks was it after the 2000 Bush/Gore election before we knew who won?

This election needs to be decisive either way.  Even in the event of fraud.  Hugh Hewitt wrote a book last election called "If it's not close they can't cheat".

We don't need any ambiguity...I also worry about riots if Obama loses in a close race.

The problem with 2000 was the the EV/PV mismatch which has been a large controversy all 4 times that it has happened and it was also decided by 700 votes. 2004 was a very close election decided by only 120k votes and the was no controversy. If you are honestly worrying about riots you should instead be worried about being mauled by a polar bear and a regular bear in the same day.

[Kyle Ricky]

I understand wishing for this type of landslide but if you think theres a realistic possibility its going to happen I think you will be disappointed. Romney isnt spending any money in PA, MI, WI, and NM. Neither the Obama or Romney campaigns have spent any money in Michigan. The only thing keeping the polls close is conservative super PACs have spent a ton there and the democrat super PACs have hardly spent anything. The best case I see for Romney is he is able to pull out WI and NV and end up with 301. I see Romney with a comfortable 285 and very little chance the outcome is ever in doubt.

I didn't say that it will be what is projected here. I am simply hoping and praying that it is ...

[Lacarnut]

If NH, PA, NC, VA and FL are called early for Mitt, it will be a rout, and he will wind up with over 300 EV.

[docstew]

RCP just put NC back into toss-up.

 

I don't understand how NC can be a toss up. Pat McCrory is the R candidate for gov, and is up by 11 over the D candidate.

Are that many people voting O and McCrory?

[franksolich]

I don't understand how NC can be a toss up. Pat McCrory is the R candidate for gov, and is up by 11 over the D candidate.

Are that many people voting O and McCrory?

I'm still laughing at RCP's designation of North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and South Carolina as "maybe Romney."

It's a joke, RCP.

[Kyle Ricky]

I think RCP is pulling peoples leg.

[BigTex]

I'm still laughing at RCP's designation of North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and South Carolina as "maybe Romney."

It's a joke, RCP.

RCP is just based on polls. I have no idea why North Dakota and Texas are on there as both of their RCP poll average is Romney +18. But South Dakota and South Carolina havent even had polls done in 2012 so they just put likely Romney. The same reason Karl Rove had SC as a toss up until October because there were no polls, he finally just gave up and made it solid Romney.

[JohnnyReb]

RCP is just based on polls. I have no idea why North Dakota and Texas are on there as both of their RCP poll average is Romney +18. But South Dakota and South Carolina havent even had polls done in 2012 so they just put likely Romney. The same reason Karl Rove had SC as a toss up until October because there were no polls, he finally just gave up and made it solid Romney.

Take the black/white population percentages of S.C., subtract 10% from the white number and add to the black number and you'll just about have the voting break down for S.C..

...and remember 1960, there was enough voter fraud in Texas and Chicago to give the election to JFK.

....and I won't even metion JFK's lying and election stealing. You know, continuing togo around telling people that the Russians out numbered us in missiles and nuclear warheads when he had already been informed by Ike that we out numbered the Russians 2 to 1 in missiles and warheads.....and then his old man paying the Mafia/Unions in WV to win the democratic primary for him.

[J P Sousa]

  Romney isnt spending any money in PA 

And I think that is a mistake. From my observation, democrats are NOT enthused in PA., but republicans are very enthused. 
.

[Kyle Ricky]

Last week, Paul Ryan was in Pittsburgh and I saw something earlier that Romney is going to be there tomorrow. They may not be spending money here, but they are campaigning here. That must be working because Romney is above obama here.

[BigTex]

And I think that is a mistake. From my observation, democrats are NOT enthused in PA., but republicans are very enthused.  
.

Why? PA is harder to win than OH because democrats out number republicans there. Romney is playing to win, not to look good. Id rather win for sure than get spread to thin and have Romney win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. When voters shift its as a national group, Romney isnt going to be able to win PA if he doesnt win places like Ohio, NH and Iowa.