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Author Topic: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:  (Read 1977 times)

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Offline Maxiest

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Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« on: October 17, 2012, 07:17:56 PM »
This doesn't give me much hope.

I used the map at www.270towin.com  and the current polling data on http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012.

Right now I have Obama, if the election were held today, at 294 and Romney at 248.

Can someone give me a little boost in confidence?

By they way my map is: http://www.270towin.com/#.UH9LMhEfoJ-.email
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Offline Cruise

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Re: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2012, 08:58:52 PM »
Okay, here's your confidence.  

Let's figure out how many voters the average elector represents per state.  You will quickly find that it takes far fewer voters to represent an elector for traditionally red states than in traditionally blue states.  Think Wyoming, Utah, Dakotas, Alaska -- very few people per elector, whereas many blue states have a larger number of people per elector (New York, California).

What does this mean?  It means that Obama is at a significant disadvantage where the electoral college is concerned.  Plus, many of the little states are already at a saturated point.  How many Obama '08 voters are you going to flip to Romney in Oklahoma?  Not many at all!  

You also have to consider that the states are not totally separate battlegrounds.  Sentiments in one state will spill over to another.  It's impossible for Obama to win SC without winning NC, and impossible for Romney to win MA without winning CT.  That kind of thing.  The only state that has really bucked the trend as establishing itself apart from its neighbors in my memory is Indiana in 2008.  What this means is that, generally, you can't make a blue state a little less red without lifting up their neighboring purple states to be redder as well.  

So what does this mean -- IMO, it is all but impossible for Obama to win the electoral vote without winning the popular vote.  He has a heavy disadvantage towards it in the first place, and momentum seen in (say) NC *is* going to spill over to VA, and momentum seen in PA/MI/WI *is* going to spill over to OH.   IMO, either (some of the) OH polls are wrong or the national polls are wrong.  If you believe that Romney is leading nationally, believe he's going to win the election altogether.
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Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2012, 07:02:24 AM »
The thing you have to look at also is that most of the polls are over sampling of Dems. When you have a race this tight with that, it does not look good for obama.

Also look at the focus groups as apposed to the polls. You will see the disdain for obama.
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Offline BigTex

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Re: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2012, 10:25:26 AM »
Quote from: Maxiest on October 17, 2012, 07:17:56 PM
This doesn't give me much hope.

I used the map at www.270towin.com  and the current polling data on http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012.

Right now I have Obama, if the election were held today, at 294 and Romney at 248

Can someone give me a little boost in confidence?

By they way my map is: http://www.270towin.com/#.UH9LMhEfoJ-.email

I dont think so, 147 EVs are inside the margin of error they could go either way if the election was held today.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2012, 11:39:27 AM »
The polls are largely BS, Maxie, and even the ones that turn out to have been close will have balance-changing movement in the last 24-72 hours before the polls close.  Don't pay attention to them either way if you want to stay sane.
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Offline Maxiest

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Re: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2012, 12:08:05 PM »
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"The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither; the society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great measure of both."

"Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program."

"We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes nonwork."

-Milton Friedman

Offline Kyle Ricky

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Re: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2012, 12:32:51 PM »
Rasmussen is behind Gallop, who has Romney ahead by 7 points. I don't know who Rasmussen is polling, but Gallop is polling likely voters. (The others are either over sampling dems, and/or not polling likely voters). If you look at the likely voters, Romney has this.
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Offline Cruise

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Re: Electoral votes figured using current poll numbers:
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2012, 05:12:27 PM »
Quote from: Kyle Ricky on October 22, 2012, 12:32:51 PM
Rasmussen is behind Gallop, who has Romney ahead by 7 points. I don't know who Rasmussen is polling, but Gallop is polling likely voters. (The others are either over sampling dems, and/or not polling likely voters). If you look at the likely voters, Romney has this.
I believe the variance within the polls can be partially explained by the tightness of the likely voting screens.  Gallup has a fairly tight LV screen, it asks a few questions rather than taking a "100% Sure To Vote" self-rating to heart.  R enthusiasm is so disproportionate to D enthusiasm, a little screw tightening on the LV screen will go a long way.
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