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Author Topic: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012  (Read 1608 times)

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Offline a777pilot

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Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« on: December 19, 2011, 08:37:09 AM »
We are just 14 days and a wake up till the beginning of the 2012 silly season....election 2012.


My predictions for Iowa are:

Paul
Romney
Gingrich
Perry

My hope for the top finishers is as I just listed them.

I still say after the four contests in JAN there will be but three remaining in the race:  Romney, Gingrich and Perry.


By the end of FEB there will be two Perry and one other.
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Offline Odin's Hand

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2011, 09:34:07 AM »
Quote from: a777pilot on December 19, 2011, 08:37:09 AM
My hope for the top finishers is as I just listed them.

It begins...
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2011, 09:44:13 AM »
Paul will likely do a lot better in IA than his positions deserve, the caucus format is an activist's playground to the disservice of advancing the candidates the vast majority of non-activists would actually vote for. 

Pretty funny that the Des Moines Register endorsed Romney, since it is traditionally a totally hard-over lib rag, pretty much an organ of the Democrat Party, so anything they're for, Conservatives should probably be against on principle.   
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Offline a777pilot

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2011, 09:49:32 AM »
Quote from: DumbAss Tanker on December 19, 2011, 09:44:13 AM
Paul will likely do a lot better in IA than his positions deserve, the caucus format is an activist's playground to the disservice of advancing the candidates the vast majority of non-activists would actually vote for. 

Pretty funny that the Des Moines Register endorsed Romney, since it is traditionally a totally hard-over lib rag, pretty much an organ of the Democrat Party, so anything they're for, Conservatives should probably be against on principle.   

That's very true.

Also, to put this all in perspective, there will only be about 120,000 totals votes cast in this caucus.  On 6 NOV 2012 there will be somewhere between 120 million and 130 million voters participating.
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Offline a777pilot

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2011, 09:53:05 AM »

What will be interesting to see is how Mr. Paul and Mr. Romney do in Iowa after four years and millions of dollars spent.

Here is how they did in 2008:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008
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Offline NHSparky

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2011, 11:22:39 AM »
Sorry, but if it comes down to Paul versus Obama, I'm staying home, because my only other alternative would be voting for Obama.

YES, Paul is THAT dangerous.
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Offline TVDOC

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2011, 11:23:41 AM »
I've never considered Iowa (or any other state that does caucuses) little more than political theatre.  In the scheme of the primary structure, they are meaningless......the mere fact that Ron Paul registers above 1% is pretty much an indication of their value.

When the convention arrives, the delegates from these states have to do it all again to select a "real" candidate.

doc
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Offline Eupher

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2011, 11:25:31 AM »
Quote from: NHSparky on December 19, 2011, 11:22:39 AM
Sorry, but if it comes down to Paul versus Obama, I'm staying home, because my only other alternative would be voting for Obama.

YES, Paul is THAT dangerous.

It'll never get that far. Paul is far too much of a moonbat to connect beyond the vocal, but still small, group of Ronbots.
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Offline thundley4

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2011, 11:33:17 AM »
PPP is a left leaning polling company. I don't trust their methods.
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Offline DumbAss Tanker

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2011, 11:33:17 AM »
Really, Paul and Romney have one thing in common - dedicated supporters who deeply detest the other of the two and his supporters.  After Iowa, when the real primaries start, Gingrich is probably the guy best positioned (Medium- to long-term) to take advantage of the fact the Romney supporters could never stand to vote for Paul, and Paul supporters could never stand to vote for Romney.  Assuming he can keep his own lack of humility and mouth in check long enough to take advantage of it.
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Offline Tess Anderson

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2011, 01:06:17 PM »
Quote from: thundley4 on December 19, 2011, 11:33:17 AM
PPP is a left leaning polling company. I don't trust their methods.

Yes, and look at the internals of this poll - Iowa is a caucus state. There's no way they will embarrass themselves by voting for someone like Ron Paul is socially conservative Iowa.
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Offline a777pilot

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2011, 02:17:13 PM »
Oh, I hope they will vote for  Paul.  That would be the best out come for the will "heavies" in this race.  Why?  Paul is not going to be the GOP nominee.
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Offline Tess Anderson

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2011, 03:54:12 PM »
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Offline Mr Mannn

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2011, 06:38:23 PM »
Quote from: TVDOC on December 19, 2011, 11:23:41 AM
I've never considered Iowa (or any other state that does caucuses) little more than political theatre.  In the scheme of the primary structure, they are meaningless......the mere fact that Ron Paul registers above 1% is pretty much an indication of their value.

When the convention arrives, the delegates from these states have to do it all again to select a "real" candidate.

doc
I live in Iowa. Thats it in a nutshell. What I wouldn't give for a real primary.
A caucus worked for farmers in 1804. Its an anachronism today.

That said, Paul and all who support him are ******* retards. Thank you.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 07:01:15 PM by Mr Mannn »
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Offline a777pilot

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2011, 10:35:00 PM »
Where are you in Iowa?  I grew up (debatable) in the home town of Well's Blue Bunny.
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Offline Ralph Wiggum

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Re: Iowa, 3 JAN 2012
« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2011, 11:53:33 PM »
Every "Iowa Poll" in the DM Register shows so many "not-firmly committed" in the details.

Hell, I am one.  I don't want to & can't understand the Dr. Nuts supporters.  I've not met one, yet he polls near the top.  Oh yeah, I'm a country club Republican. :thatsright:

I see a lot of good things about many who are running, even Huntsman.  Two weeks out, I'd say here is the order of finish:

Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Bachmann
Santorum
Perry

Although McCain didn't campaign much or finish well in Iowa in '08, I've got a suspicion that Romney as the safe choice will win narrowly over Newt & Dr. Nuts.

Barring any bombshells between now & then, of course.

(NOTE! This is not my order of preference, just another early prediction. And I'm still uncommitted, have no home phone, will attend a caucus...)

(Other note: yes, this is an f-d up system) :-)
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