Rasmussen Predicts GOP Gain of 55 in House

[Chris_]

Nationally-recognized pollster Scott Rasmussen last night predicted that Republicans would gain 55 seats in races for the U.S. House of Representatives November 2—much more than the 39 needed for a Republican majority in the House for the first time since 2006.

But the man whose Rasmussen Reports polling is watched carefully by politicians and frequently quoted by the punditocracy said that whether Republicans gain the ten seats they need to take control of the Senate is in question.

“Republicans should have 48 seats [after the elections next month], Democrats 47, and five seats could slide either way,” said Rasmussen in his banquet address at the Western Conservative Political Action Conference.

Human Events via American Thinker

[Wretched Excess]

I think that's low.  almost all of the trends are in our direction, the undecideds usually break for the challenger, unless you are george w. bush, the party in power always loses seats in the midterms, & etc,. etc.

I would expect late dramatic movement in some of the senate races, especially.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I think that's low.  almost all of the trends are in our direction, the undecideds usually break for the challenger, unless you are george w. bush, the party in power always loses seats in the midterms, & etc,. etc.

I would expect late dramatic movement in some of the senate races, especially.

Well, Rasmussen is after all a Dem, he will lowball it to the extent he can short of harming his own marketability afterward.  This far out he has the cover to claim late events changed the picture even if his number proves wildly out of synch.

As far as the House is concerned, once you go about 10 seats over the simple majority, the 'How much more' is sort of academic, past a GOP gain of 50 he's probably pretty safe from anybody marking him down for underestimating it.

I am surprised he is calling the Senate that close, though, the GOP strategic vision for the election was just to get to an ironclad filibuster that McCain, Collins, or Snowe couldn't sell out from underneath them.  If even Rasmussen is saying the Senate is really in play, that is exceptionally good news. 

[Chris_]

Sean Hannity made an interesting point on his radio show.  To paraphrase, "when things gets close in the Senate, people start looking to switch sides just to be on the winning team."  I wonder if either side will have any defectors after November.

[Wretched Excess]

Sean Hannity made an interesting point on his radio show.  To paraphrase, "when things gets close in the Senate, people start looking to switch sides just to be on the winning team."  I wonder if either side will have any defectors after November.

not sure who would be left.  most of the moderates that could jump ship are already on the endangered list. 

[DumbAss Tanker]

I don't entirely discount the rumor that that is exactly what the annointed GOP candidate in Delaware intended to do.

[Wretched Excess]

Sean Hannity made an interesting point on his radio show.  To paraphrase, "when things gets close in the Senate, people start looking to switch sides just to be on the winning team."  I wonder if either side will have any defectors after November.

the more I think about it, I would expect house members to jump parties before senators.  some of the blue dogs may survive, and I don't see the likes of, say, Gene Taylor (D-MS) and assorted other southern dems staying with a party that is led by nancy pelosi.

[JohnnyReb]

I'm 64 and have voted in every election I was supposed to vote in....including primaries.

Now, I know this is going to sound strange, but I have friends around my age that have never voted, ever, period. They always said it doesn't matter who's in office nothing is going to change, they're all crooks, etc,, etc..

Well, I've had several ask me in the last few months, "Where (or how) do I register to vote." One that usually votes asked me yesterday, "Can I vote early?" When I told him he could, he wanted to know how to do it. Being our age and less than great health, he wanted to make sure nothing kept his vote from being counted.

I'm looking for a larger than usual midterm turnout and that should favor the republicans in my area a lot. It has in the past.

[littlelamb]

I'm 64 and have voted in every election I was supposed to vote in....including primaries.

Now, I know this is going to sound strange, but I have friends around my age that have never voted, ever, period. They always said it doesn't matter who's in office nothing is going to change, they're all crooks, etc,, etc..

Well, I've had several ask me in the last few months, "Where (or how) do I register to vote." One that usually votes asked me yesterday, "Can I vote early?" When I told him he could, he wanted to know how to do it. Being our age and less than great health, he wanted to make sure nothing kept his vote from being counted.

I'm looking for a larger than usual midterm turnout and that should favor the republicans in my area a lot. It has in the past.

Good keep up the great work JohnnyReb

[JohnnyReb]

Good keep up the great work JohnnyReb

Hey, I've done nothing to get them to vote. I twisted their arms for so many years that I just finally gave up on them. Now, all of a sudden, voting is the most important thing in their life.

[DixieBelle]

^Thank God.

[NHSparky]

Oh, sure--NOW it becomes important.  Sorry, but people who don't take the minimal amount of time and effort required to educate themselves on the issues shouldn't be allowed to vote.

[JohnnyReb]

Oh, sure--NOW it becomes important.  Sorry, but people who don't take the minimal amount of time and effort required to educate themselves on the issues shouldn't be allowed to vote.

Yeah....now it becomes important. You see, in the past all they had was the MSM but most now have cable/sat, computers and internet access. Sure, they get some of their info from Rush, Beck, etc. but they can also search the net for other info. I get a lot of e-mails from them saying, "Did you know blah-blah-blah." and my answer is usually, "Yeah, I've been trying to tell you that for years."

So they've come to the game a little late, who cares. What is important is that they're here now to cheer on the team. Maybe it'll make a difference.

[BlueStateSaint]

I've been saying this for over a year now.

The over/under for Republican US House gains is 114.5.

I'm taking the over.  The tsunami is building.  The Bander Aceh tsunami will look like a fart in a bathtub by comparison.

[JohnnyReb]

It's not looking good for Spratt...it's getting down and dirty here.

Here is a blog about my home county and the one that will decide if Spratt stays or goes.

http://earlcapps.blogspot.com/2010/10/lancaster-county-turning-red.html#more

As an aside, Spratt has roughly 30% of the votes right off the bat (blacks). Mick has to get the winning 50+% from the remaing 70%(whites). That means he has to get roughly 72% of the white votes. Call it racist if you want to but that's rep/dem politics around here.