Kentucky, Oregon primaries

[franksolich]

I just checked the polls, because I'm taking off for a bit, and then will be back when the results start coming in this evening, from Kentucky and Oregon.

In Kentucky:

Democratic Polls
Democratic Primary Date: 5/20/08

Delegates At Stake: 60. Awarded Proportionally

Suffolk University
Date: 5/17-18
Kentucky
Added: 5/19/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Hillary Clinton 51%
Barack Obama 25%
John Edwards 6%
Refused 2%
Unsure 16%

   

American Research Group
Date: 5/14-15
Kentucky
Added: 5/17/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Hillary Clinton 65%
Barack Obama 29%
Unsure 2%
Other 4%

Survey USA
Date: 5/9-11
Kentucky
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.8% [?]

Hillary Clinton 62%
Barack Obama 30%
Unsure 3%
Other 6%

Herald Leader WKYT Research 2000 Poll
Date: 5/7-9
Kentucky
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 4.3% [?]

Hillary Clinton 58%
Barack Obama 31%
Unsure 5%
Other 6%

Rasmussen Reports
Date: 5/5
Kentucky
Added: 5/7/08
Est. MoE = 3.4% [?]

Hillary Clinton 56%
Barack Obama 31%
Unsure 13%

There's other polls, but older ones, at the link http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/kentucky.html

In Oregon:

Democratic Polls
Democratic Primary Date: 5/20/08

Delegates At Stake: 65. Awarded Proportionally

Suffolk University
Date: 5/17-18
Oregon
Added: 5/19/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Barack Obama 45%
Hillary Clinton 41%
Refused 6%
Unsure 8%

American Research Group
Date: 5/14-16
Oregon
Added: 5/17/08
Est. MoE = 4.0% [?]

Barack Obama 50%
Hillary Clinton 45%
Unsure 5%

Public Policy Polling
Date: 5/10-11
Oregon
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.2% [?]

Barack Obama 53%
Hillary Clinton 39%
Unsure 7%

Survey USA
Date: 5/9-11
Oregon
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 3.9% [?]

Barack Obama 54%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Unsure 2%
Other 2%

Portland Tribune by Davis Hibbitts Midghall
Date: 5/8-10
Oregon
Added: 5/14/08
Est. MoE = 4.9% [?]

Barack Obama 55%
Hillary Clinton 35%

Others, older ones, at the link http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/oregon.html

[Wretched Excess]

the suffolk poll has to be an outlier, but the media has been playing it up this afternoon.

[Wretched Excess]

hillary is off to a strong start in KY.

1% reporting

Clinton  3,685 64%

Obama 1,790  31%
   

[Wretched Excess]

hillary is up 51-45 at 7%;  but the cities seem to be coming in first.

[franksolich]

Hello; I just got in.

Before I go out to grab the results, something that might be illuminating.

It appears I jumped the gun last week, and believed statements of a primitive.

That happens; excresence happens.

I had been operating under the assumption that Obama needs only 16 more delegates to go over the top.

But this:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080520/D90P91AG0.html

_Obama was 17 delegates short of reaching a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests.

_Oregon offered 52 delegates; Kentucky had 51.

_Counting aligned superdelegates as well, Obama had a total of 1,915 and Clinton had 1,721, according to the latest Associated Press count. That placed Obama just more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination.

The primitive last week alleged Obama was just 16 short; apparently Obama's 111 short.

[Wretched Excess]

I just noticed that he can't clinch tonight;  he is 108 delegates from the nomination, and
there are 51 delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

[Chris_]

I just noticed that he can't clinch tonight;  he is 108 delegates from the nomination, and
there are 51 delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

HA!

Let the entertainment continue...

[Wretched Excess]

Hello; I just got in.

Before I go out to grab the results, something that might be illuminating.

It appears I jumped the gun last week, and believed statements of a primitive.

That happens; excresence happens.

I had been operating under the assumption that Obama needs only 16 more delegates to go over the top.

But this:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080520/D90P91AG0.html

_Obama was 17 delegates short of reaching a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests.

_Oregon offered 52 delegates; Kentucky had 51.

_Counting aligned superdelegates as well, Obama had a total of 1,915 and Clinton had 1,721, according to the latest Associated Press count. That placed Obama just more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination.

The primitive last week alleged Obama was just 16 short; apparently Obama's 111 short.

heh.  I was headed in the same direction. 

[franksolich]

With 7% of Kentucky now in:

Clinton 52%
Obama 45%
Edwards 1%

[Wretched Excess]

I just noticed that he can't clinch tonight;  he is 108 delegates from the nomination, and
there are 51 delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon.

HA!

Let the entertainment continue...

and due to this proportional allocation of delegates that the dems do, he will probably walk away with half of those 100 delegates up for grabs tonight.

[Wretched Excess]

I think they are going to call KY at the top of the hour;  the exits looked pretty bad for Baroque Obama.

[franksolich]

9% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 50%
Obama 46%
Edwards 1%

[franksolich]

11% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 50%
Obama 47%
Edwards 1%

[Wretched Excess]

11% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 50%
Obama 47%
Edwards 1%

no way it stays that close.

[Wretched Excess]

polls in oregon close at 8PM local time;  11PM eastern. 

[Wretched Excess]

jefferson county (louisville) is 65% in, and is running 51% for barack.

[franksolich]

polls in oregon close at 8PM local time;  11PM eastern. 

That's where I'm confused.

The Oregon primary is a mail primary, the way I understood it.

I didn't think they had to wait for polls to close; I had expected they'd be counting the votes and releasing those totals.  But the web-site I'm on says "polls still open."

[Wretched Excess]

fox just called KY for hillary;  she should win by 2-1.

*slap*

[franksolich]

13% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 49%
Obama 48%
Edwards 1%

These must be the big cities reporting first.

[Wretched Excess]

Hello; I just got in.

Before I go out to grab the results, something that might be illuminating.

It appears I jumped the gun last week, and believed statements of a primitive.

That happens; excresence happens.

I had been operating under the assumption that Obama needs only 16 more delegates to go over the top.

But this:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080520/D90P91AG0.html

_Obama was 17 delegates short of reaching a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests.

_Oregon offered 52 delegates; Kentucky had 51.

_Counting aligned superdelegates as well, Obama had a total of 1,915 and Clinton had 1,721, according to the latest Associated Press count. That placed Obama just more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination.

The primitive last week alleged Obama was just 16 short; apparently Obama's 111 short.

I see where the number 16 (or 17) came from; 

With Obama within just 17 delegates of claiming a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available in all state contests . . .

don't ask me why a majority doesn't clinch;  dem rules are unnecessarily complicated.

[franksolich]

The primitive was counting only yet-to-be-elected pledged delegates.

The primitive didn't take into consideration the unpledged superdelegates.

[Wretched Excess]

polls in oregon close at 8PM local time;  11PM eastern. 

That's where I'm confused.

The Oregon primary is a mail primary, the way I understood it.

I didn't think they had to wait for polls to close; I had expected they'd be counting the votes and releasing those totals.  But the web-site I'm on says "polls still open."

found this.

The Beaver State has 52 pledged delegates. It also had the distinction of staging the only contest without a designated polling day. Instead, under a vote-by-mail system, election officials tallied all ballots received by 11 p.m. on primary day.

received by, or postmarked by.

[franksolich]

16% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 51%
Obama 46%
Edwards 1%

[Wretched Excess]

dr. nutz is getting 7% in KY.

[franksolich]

21% of Kentucky now in.

Clinton 53%
Obama 44%
Edwards 1%