Author Topic: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)  (Read 12458 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #50 on: April 22, 2008, 09:00:24 PM »
Forty-six percent in now.

Messalina down 1, Barry up 1.

54%-46%.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Lauri

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3636
  • Reputation: +143/-18
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #51 on: April 22, 2008, 09:01:23 PM »
Here is the link to the PA secretary of state elections returns page:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

it updates automatically.
Oh, shit -- the Ronbots are going to go ape.


this is where i usually ask... "Ron Paul is STILL going?"  :popcorn:

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #52 on: April 22, 2008, 09:02:50 PM »
Here is the link to the PA secretary of state elections returns page:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

it updates automatically.
Oh, shit -- the Ronbots are going to go ape.


this is where i usually ask... "Ron Paul is STILL going?"  :popcorn:

he was at nearly 20% of the vote a little while ago . . . down to under 15% now. 

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #53 on: April 22, 2008, 09:04:36 PM »
Forty-seven percent in now.

Messalina still 54%, Barry still 46%.

I'll bet the cali primitive's really unhappy.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #54 on: April 22, 2008, 09:07:09 PM »
Now we're halfway, 50% in.

Percentages the same.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #55 on: April 22, 2008, 09:08:55 PM »

I read someplace that PA allocates part of the delegates according to statewide results, but then another large part of their delegates are allocated in a weighted fashion according to congressional district.  that means that when The BarackStar! wins philly big, the delegates he wins there will offset hillary's gain for winning the state by a likely large margin.

poor hillary.  she just can't catch a break.  :-)

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #56 on: April 22, 2008, 09:13:03 PM »
Okay, 52% in.

Messalina up 1, Barry down 1.

55%-45%.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #57 on: April 22, 2008, 09:14:11 PM »
Now 56% in.

Messalina down 1, Barry up 1.

54%-46%.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #58 on: April 22, 2008, 09:15:33 PM »
Okay, 52% in.

Messalina up 1, Barry down 1.

55%-45%.

I am playing with the county results using the county-by-county map on the PA sec'y state state page, it looks like perhaps the outlying rural areas will be the last to come in.  if that is so, and the demographics hold, she could be headed to 12% or better.


Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #59 on: April 22, 2008, 09:16:57 PM »
With 58% now in, Messalina up 1 and Barry down 1.

55%-45%.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #60 on: April 22, 2008, 09:18:07 PM »


I am playing with the county results using the county-by-county map on the PA sec'y state state page, it looks like perhaps the outlying rural areas will be the last to come in.  if that is so, and the demographics hold, she could be headed to 12% or better.



I was wondering; that's why my question about western Pennsylvania.

If western Pennsylvania isn't in yet, Barry's toast.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #61 on: April 22, 2008, 09:19:57 PM »
Now 61% in.

Messalina down 1, Barry up 1.

54%-46%.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #62 on: April 22, 2008, 09:25:57 PM »

philly is 95% in.

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #63 on: April 22, 2008, 09:28:23 PM »


I am playing with the county results using the county-by-county map on the PA sec'y state state page, it looks like perhaps the outlying rural areas will be the last to come in.  if that is so, and the demographics hold, she could be headed to 12% or better.



I was wondering; that's why my question about western Pennsylvania.

If western Pennsylvania isn't in yet, Barry's toast.

a LOT of central PA is very slow coming in;  that is equally bad for The BarackStar!

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #64 on: April 22, 2008, 09:29:50 PM »
Sixty-seven percent in; two-thirds of the way there.

Messalina inevitably in a rout over Barry, still 54%-46%.

However, I do suspect that margin will widen.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #65 on: April 22, 2008, 09:31:47 PM »

hillary just had a good applause line in her victory speech about how she may get knocked down, but will "always get back up".


Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #66 on: April 22, 2008, 09:34:13 PM »
Seventy percent now.

Messalina still at 54%, Barry 46%.

Does anybody know if any of the Obamaite primitives are screaming "vote fraud!" yet?
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Chris_

  • Little Lebowski Urban Achiever
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 46845
  • Reputation: +2028/-266
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #67 on: April 22, 2008, 09:34:57 PM »
Sixty-seven percent in; two-thirds of the way there.

Messalina inevitably in a rout over Barry, still 54%-46%.

However, I do suspect that margin will widen.

I hope not.  I have a bunch of H5s on the line (since I was one of the few who made a specific prediction)
If you want to worship an orange pile of garbage with a reckless disregard for everything, get on down to Arbys & try our loaded curly fries.

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #68 on: April 22, 2008, 09:35:20 PM »
Seventy percent now.

Messalina still at 54%, Barry 46%.

Does anybody know if any of the Obamaite primitives are screaming "vote fraud!" yet?

 :rotf: I haven't checked yet, but I am sure they are.

Offline franksolich

  • Scourge of the Primitives
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 58700
  • Reputation: +3073/-173
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #69 on: April 22, 2008, 09:36:48 PM »
Seventy-three percent reporting now.

Still Messalina 54%, Barry 46%, and it looks as if her lead's not going to go down.
apres moi, le deluge

Offline Wretched Excess

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15284
  • Reputation: +485/-84
  • Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happy Hour
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #70 on: April 22, 2008, 09:37:55 PM »
Sixty-seven percent in; two-thirds of the way there.

Messalina inevitably in a rout over Barry, still 54%-46%.

However, I do suspect that margin will widen.

I hope not.  I have a bunch of H5s on the line (since I was one of the few who made a specific prediction)


I think she will be over 10.  but it's hard to tell how many votes are in the 25% of the precincts that remain outstanding.    they DO seem to be in central PA, but will it be enough to move the numbers a couple of percent?

the exit polls are very wrong again.  "the wilder effect", I suspect.

Offline Chris_

  • Little Lebowski Urban Achiever
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 46845
  • Reputation: +2028/-266
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #71 on: April 22, 2008, 09:40:09 PM »
yep...

Why I Distrust PA Election Results…

Same old whining about the electronic voting machines the Democratic Party demanded after the mess they caused in 2000.
If you want to worship an orange pile of garbage with a reckless disregard for everything, get on down to Arbys & try our loaded curly fries.

Offline Chris_

  • Little Lebowski Urban Achiever
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 46845
  • Reputation: +2028/-266
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #72 on: April 22, 2008, 09:42:49 PM »
Here ya go: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3278852#3278900

Quote
BradBlog  Donating Member  (1000+ posts) Journal   08:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. OP Updated with much more...   Updated at 7:41 PM
   

Kicking to point that out...Will likely be rolling updates all day. Please keep this kicked if you can!

--
 
Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. kick
   
Nobody could possibly have foreseen....... I'm gettin' tired of saying it.

I predicted last night that Hillary would win, 100% to Obama's 55%. That's with a 156% margin of error. With these machines, anything is possible.
--
 
electropop (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
3. I can't stand this.
   
How much longer will we use these damned machines? How much longer before we pull the partisans out of running elections? It's disgraceful!
--
 
discerning christian Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Wed Apr-23-08 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #3
39. PULLEEEEEEZE,
   
someone forward this post to K. Olberman at MSNBC right NOW!! I'm sitting here listening to them making excuses as to why the results are so slow in coming in. Even they are being BULLSHITTED. Some one there must "have a clue" yet are keeping America hanging out here to dry!! Also get the information to them about the DOJ monitoring this election. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE !! Maybe now the powers that be will get rid of those DAMNABLE MACHINES !!! Gov. Rendell needs to have a long talk with the Sec. of State. Can they afford a do-over????????????? Bastards. :nuke:
--
 
truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
4. I thought that the state primaries were on paper ballots!?!
   
between the electronic machinery and Ed Weasel Rendell forcing the delegates to go his way or no funding for districts, maybe Hillary will get her 28% above Obama.

<sigh>
--
 
Freddie Stubbs (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Yes, it's all true. And there's nothing you can do to stop us!!!!
   
;)
--
 
natrat (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 08:39 PM
Response to Original message
5. let me guess shillary by 30
   
--
 
Diane R Donating Member (1000+ posts)       Tue Apr-22-08 08:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. Let me guess. Broken machines in Obama strongholds, Obama missing from ballots. So surprising.
   
--
 
joeybee12 (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
7. Yup it's Hilary's fault...the seriousness of these problems denigrated
   
by the Bots trying to make it into another conspiracy theory. Pathetic.
--
 
darue (178 posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #7
21. oh for ****s sake... you're so right...
   
why would powerful rich people ever secretly agree to act in concert to accomplish their goals? What lunacy to suggest that they might or EVER HAVE. of course we know our betters would never do such things. republican state election officials have no reason whatsoever to do something that we KNOW they think will help them win the presidency of the most powerful nation on earth. What would even motivate them to try? conspiracy? please, what a joke. there's NEVER been a conspiracy in history has there? Certainly no conspiracy has ever occurred in our perfect and great nation.
--
 
RUMMYisFROSTED (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Coming in swinging...sarcasm...on point...
   
Welcome to DU.

:party:
--
 
darue (178 posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. yes
   
a little of the old sarky indeed. thnx 4 the welcome :beer:
--
 
Winebrat Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 08:56 PM
Response to Original message
9. The Dysfunctional States of America
   
--
 
Faye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 08:58 PM
Response to Original message
10. .
   
--
 
Obama_for_our_future Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kick, those who don't believe these things happen are naive
   
--
 
defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Wed Apr-23-08 12:51 AM
Response to Reply #11
41. ...but, but, but .... that would be a conspiracy . . .. !!!
   
and we would all be wearing "tin foil hats" ---

Oh . . . it would be so frightening ---

Let's pretend this isn't happening --- it's easier that way!!


--
 
jennied (7 posts)       Tue Apr-22-08 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
12. Sigh...
   
This makes me mad. I just might close my eyes for a few months, then open them and see who is gonna be our nominee. I can't stand all this crap...
--
 
blackops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #12
28. You need Wait Mateâ„¢!
   
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 10:30 PM by blackops
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJVeHm0QT04&feature=rela...

Welcome to DU! :hi:
--
 
The Wielding Truth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal       Tue Apr-22-08 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #28
34. Gimme a couple. I can't stand it.
   
:banghead:
--
 
Progs Rock (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 09:22 PM
Response to Original message
13. kr
   
--
 
drm604 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 09:23 PM
Response to Original message
14. I voted on one of those damned machines this morning.
   
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 09:24 PM by drm604
This was in Norristown, which should go heavily for Obama. There were no obvious problems, but of course I have no way of knowing whether or not my votes were accurately recorded when I pushed the vote button.
--
 
The Wizard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 09:33 PM
Response to Original message
15. Can anyone help?
   
Did Pennsylvania make a verified paper trail illegal for the primary?
--
 
drm604 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 09:33 PM
Response to Original message
16. Here's the machine I voted on.
   
I voted on a "Sequoia Advantage" machine.

Here's an instructional video put out by the state of Pennsylvania for that machine (if you can stomach the silly cartoon).

http://www.votingbooth.state.pa.us/media/instructional_...
--
 
bushmeister0 (495 posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. I think I used a somwhat older version of that one. I was a little more rickety.
   
Damn, I wish I'd thought to write in "John Doe." The bass player of the band "X" is so much cooler than anyone running in this primary.
--
 
AllyCat (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 09:42 PM
Response to Original message
17. Is anyone surprised? Anyone? n/t
   
--
 
truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 09:46 PM
Response to Original message
18. error message -- You have already recommended that discussion
   
--
 
nashville_brook (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
20. ...
   
--
 
demo dutch (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
22. Just the normal crap, it happens in every state of the union!
   
--
 
truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #22
33. No in other states of the Union there were primaries held where
   
The votes were counted on paper ballots.

And some states are now going with paper. For even the General Eections.
--
 
Window Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
24. Thanks Brad.
   
:kick:
--
 
ohio2007 (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
26. (problems) particularly in and around Philly
   
Philly always had problems going back more then a couple of years now
--
 
Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
27. As reported elsewhere, PA is 85% touchscreen (no paper at all).
   
In other words, almost total faith-based voting, even tho PA state law requires the verification of the vote.
--
 
WIllo Donating Member (421 posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 10:38 PM
Response to Original message
29. K&R
   
--
 
vickiss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 10:39 PM
Response to Original message
30. Columbus, PA pop. 1700, 2 machines, both down first thing. Paper ballots
   
used for 33 people before 'fixed'. First person could not 'fix' machines, tech person called in. Finally 'fixed' about 8:45am.

Not my district, but was until 2003.

--
 
humbled_opinion (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 11:06 PM
Response to Original message
31. Figures...
   
You'd think people would have figured this stuff out by now...
--
 
lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Tue Apr-22-08 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
32. Well oh my ****ing dee dee ****ing dee!
   
:eyes:
--
 
chill_wind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 11:52 PM
Response to Original message
35. "Machines break down, 100's leave without voting, Obama's name not on provisional ballot!"
   
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 11:54 PM by chill_wind


"I just came from voting. Finally got my vote in at 49 ward, 07 division....after waiting for (the only) 2 voting machines to be repaired.

"I was able to cast my vote for Obama after waiting 1 and 1/2 hours. During that time at least 100 voters left without voting.....possibly not to return.


"I immediately called every News channel I could get through to. Persons who answered at the stations informed me that my ward was not the only one with broken machines and 'Paper ballots (as an alternative) without Obama's name on it. These provisional ballots did have Hiliary's name on them."


http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/More_voting...
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5918

--
 
Prophet 451 (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
36. Well, that was predictable   Updated at 5:49 PM
   
Haven't we learned by now that those things are a f'ing nightmare?
--
 
Prophet 451 (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
37. Well, that was predictable   Updated at 5:49 PM
   
Haven't we learned by now that those things are a f'ing nightmare?
--
 
DCKit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Journal        Tue Apr-22-08 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
38. The "problem" with e-voting...
   
is that the dipshits forgot to make the shortcomings invisible to us, their rubes. When voters know their votes are being switched, not counted or lost, they tend to get a little irate.

Personally, I hope PA is such a debacle that every vote in the GE will be done on a paper ballot, from coast to coast.
--
 
defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts)        Wed Apr-23-08 12:48 AM
Response to Original message
40. Looks like they are now engineering the win for HRC . . . 8:47 pm Central NJ . . . ????
   
--
 
happygoluckytoyou (837 posts)        Wed Apr-23-08 01:04 AM
Response to Original message
42. WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE.... HOW JOHN "THE REPUBLICAN" WILL WIN IN 2008
   
--
 
trickyguy (43 posts)        Wed Apr-23-08 01:43 AM
Response to Original message
43. How could I be so naive as to think there wouldn't be any problems.
   
I was so caught up in Obama fever that I forgot about the scumbags out there

who like to ruin things for a lot of honest Americans. Like mess with their votes.

And now I'm nervous as hell about the whole primary process.

Gotta think positive now. Maybe if I go and do some yoga that would help. :evilfrown:

If you want to worship an orange pile of garbage with a reckless disregard for everything, get on down to Arbys & try our loaded curly fries.

Offline djones520

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4207
  • Reputation: +181/-146
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #73 on: April 22, 2008, 09:47:54 PM »
I was standing in line in a crowded cafe a few minutes ago.  Saw Hillary on t.v. giving her victory speech.  I giggled.   :fuelfire:  Let the fight go on!!!!  :-)
"Chuck Norris once had sex in an 18 wheeler. Some of his semen dripped onto the engine. We now call that truck Optimus Prime."

Offline Chris_

  • Little Lebowski Urban Achiever
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 46845
  • Reputation: +2028/-266
Re: PA Democrat Primary Thread (and betting pool)
« Reply #74 on: April 22, 2008, 09:48:49 PM »
Quote
Something is ****ING WRONG .. CNN VS. STATE Reporting .. One has it wrong

At 54% CNN was reporting H: 54 O: 46

But the state website at: http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us / is reporting it at: 52.7 (53) H 47.3 (47%) Obama

Which ****ing site should I believe now?!!

NOOO!  PANIC!!!  RUN AWAY!!!  :cheersmate:
If you want to worship an orange pile of garbage with a reckless disregard for everything, get on down to Arbys & try our loaded curly fries.