Illinois - McCain 45%/Obama 51%

[bijou]

Illinois
                             McCain Obama Other Undecided
 
Likely voters                45%  51%  1%  4%
 
Democrats (40%)           2% 96% - 2%
Republicans (32%)          95% 3% - 2%
Independents (28%)      49% 41% 2% 8%
 
Men (45%)                    47% 47% 1% 5%
Women (55%)              43% 54% - 3%
 
18 to 49 (59%)            41% 54% 1% 4%
50 and older (41%)       51% 46% - 3%

 

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/IL08.html

[DumbAss Tanker]

Surprisingly close for a home state advantage, I am sure the Chicago area will ensure the state delivers for him in the end, however, avoiding the nasty embarassment Manbearpig suffered when he lost Tennessee.

[Wretched Excess]

wow.  kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin.  I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois. 

[bijou]

wow.  kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin.  I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois. 

The racist vote is worth 5 points in the polls [/Obama mode]

[Splashdown]

Look at that "Independents" line!!!!   

Also, please remember that the poll only interviewed living voters.

[BEG]

wow.  kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin.  I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois. 

Racist   

[Wretched Excess]

wow.  kerry carried illinois 55-44 in 2004, and gore won in 2000 by about the same margin.  I would expect a hometown boy to mop up in illinois. 

Racist   

   I will run right out and enroll in sensitivity training.

[bijou]

Found this link via FR http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5963

ARG is out with a bevy of national and state polls in the past few days which are interesting, to say the least. In the national numbers (note: scroll down to Sep 16th item) McCain is up 48-45, a 9 point shift since the end of August. But the internals are really interesting for Obama: McCain has gained 14 points with Democrats and Obama has lost 13 points! No wonder team Obama is worried.

This is important - the poll shows a large defection from Team Obama, and nearly all of them are going to McCain instead of stopping in the ‘undecided’ column. McCain is now getting nearly 20% of Dems! And the numbers are too large to be a sampling error problem. The size can be argued, but not the movement. And it looks to be women doing the moving:

McCain leads Obama 50% to 42% among men (47% of likely voters). Among women (53% of likely voters), Obama and McCain are tied at 47% each. In the August 30-September 1 survey, Obama was leading among women 52% to 40%.

...more...

[Donpeyote]

California = Obama 50% McCain 46%

[Wretched Excess]

Found this link via FR http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5963

ARG is out with a bevy of national and state polls in the past few days which are interesting, to say the least. In the national numbers (note: scroll down to Sep 16th item) McCain is up 48-45, a 9 point shift since the end of August. But the internals are really interesting for Obama: McCain has gained 14 points with Democrats and Obama has lost 13 points! No wonder team Obama is worried.

This is important - the poll shows a large defection from Team Obama, and nearly all of them are going to McCain instead of stopping in the ‘undecided’ column. McCain is now getting nearly 20% of Dems! And the numbers are too large to be a sampling error problem. The size can be argued, but not the movement. And it looks to be women doing the moving:

McCain leads Obama 50% to 42% among men (47% of likely voters). Among women (53% of likely voters), Obama and McCain are tied at 47% each. In the August 30-September 1 survey, Obama was leading among women 52% to 40%.

...more...

the women's vote is a big part of it.  in 2004, 54% of the turnout was female, and kerry won that demographic 51-48.  white women went for kerry 55-44, and I suspect that the Palin Effect has turned that one around.

[thundley4]

Don't discount that there are lots of rural and small town folks outside of Chicago.  I really wish Michigan or Indiana would annex Chicago.

[DumbAss Tanker]

Don't discount that there are lots of rural and small town folks outside of Chicago.  I really wish Michigan or Indiana would annex Chicago.

Indiana sure doesn't wish that!   

[Chris]

Soiuthern and western IL can get pretty rural.  Bloomington-Peoria-Normal is a nice area, but it's surrounded by nothing.

[thundley4]

Surrounded by nothing pretty much describes all the towns and cities scattered through Illinois.  We have corn and bean fields within the city limits here.