The Conservative Cave
Current Events => Archives => Politics => Election 2010 => Topic started by: franksolich on October 31, 2010, 05:58:45 AM
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Wretched Excess and I are going to be running a live election night thread.
The two of us worked very well in tandem during the primaries and elections of 2008, and we hope to duplicate that success. (And besides, I have to get my post-count past that of chris_.)
However, there's a difference between past primaries and elections, and this election.
conservativecave is much larger and more active now, than it was then.
The election of 2010 seems to have spurred more interest than the election of 2008.
So we're going to need some help.
Since there's so many races, and all over the country, Wretched Excess and I can't possibly report on them all.
Wretched Excess will start the live election thread, as he lives in an earlier time-zone than I do, and is going to be watching certain early results that establish the momentum or non-momentum of the elections; I'm going to be watching the spinal column of America, the middle of America.
This leaves great swathes of the country "uncovered."
Since we're mellow, laid back, and nonchalant, we don't need people to "officially" volunteer to help on this, but we'd mightily appreciate it if others throughout the evening reported in with developments and results from races in their area, or in which they have a particular interest--on the live election thread, rather than as a new free-standing thread.
Free-standing threads ("xxxx beats yyyy") are okay, and certainly not to be discouraged, but on the other hand, one can't read two things at the same time. If one wishes to post a free-standing thread about a particular race, fine, great, it's all copacetic, but please also stop in the live election thread to drop a comment about it.
Based upon past experience, and current membership, it looks as if we need people to at least casually keep track of races in New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, New England, and the west coast, and to illuminate us as the evening wears on.
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I hope you and Wretched Excess have a lot of " republican YYY unseats democrat XXX" reports.
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I'll be in on it. I'm sure that Carl and Karin will be, too . . .
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I wish that I didn't have to work on the 3rd. I'd like to stay up late into the night to watch the left coast results.
Who here has a DU account and can report back on the number of heads that explode as the election results start coming in?
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Who here has a DU account and can report back on the number of heads that explode as the election results start coming in?
Oh, I'm sure we're going to get plenty of those sorts of reports, in the DUmpster.
It's going to be a trick for me--successful or unsuccessful--keeping track of the election returns and the primitives both at the same time.
But my main point here--don't just read election night; comment too. Illuminate us as to what's going on, how's it going, &c., &c., &c.
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I can make an effort to moniter MI, and IL. I'll have my finger on the pulse of the Johnson/Feingold race though. That one's fairly crucial in my state.
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I'll have my finger on the pulse of the Johnson/Feingold race though. That one's fairly crucial in my state.
It's all good.
And when you put up the "Johnson ousts Feingold" thread, hop over to the live election thread and comment that Johnson has ousted Feingold--no links, no numbers, needed, but just to keep those of us with our eyes on the live election thread aware.
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A glance at the 2008 election live thread shows 3,646 views and 384 comments.
We're going to have more than that by midnight, I bet.
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Will be ready here for the Oklahoma report. Fallin and Lankford should cruise. The one that bears watching should be Lt. Gov. with Lamb and Corn. Corn has had more monetary support than Lamb about 10:8.
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Not much happening down here in TN, but the Rand Paul race in KY will be interesting to watch.
We do have one or two close races here... Zach Wamp for one. I think Haslam (R) will run away with the governorship by a large margin.
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Not much happening down here in TN, but the Rand Paul race in KY will be interesting to watch.
We do have one or two close races here... Zach Wamp for one. I think Haslam (R) will run away with the governorship by a large margin.
The only tight race in Nebraska involves the congressional district in Omaha; the incumbent Republican is running against an unusually-strong Dem candidate.
Other than that, Nebraska is redder than I've ever seen it before in my life.
The Dems are fussing about the current incumbent Republican governor, who's running for re-election and is predicted to win in a walk--he's probably the Republican opponent for Senator E. Benjamin Nelson (D-Nebraska) in 2012, and would win that one handily too.
The Dems in Nebraska had some problems this year; the winner of the Dem primary for governor turned out a liar, and was forced to quit the race. The Dems then nominated an obscure attorney from the western end of the state, but he's had far too little time to make even a dent.
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I'm paying attention to the races in TX and WA.
Keeping my fingers crossed that Rossi takes out Patty Murry in my adopted home state.
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I plan on being in Hartford for Linda McMahon's victory speech - I'll let you know how it goes.
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I'll be reporting in on the victory speech by Chris Gibson. 'Course, Carl may be there.
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I will be more than happy to post for Texas. Aside from the Gubernatorial, there is a pretty heated state rep match-up that I have my eyes on.
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I will be more than happy to post for Texas. Aside from the Gubernatorial, there is a pretty heated state rep match-up that I have my eyes on.
Which one is that?
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Which one is that?
Stefani Carter (R) vs. Carol Kent (D) incumbent. That is my district. Not a day goes by in the last two weeks, where I haven't gotten something in the mail. Nasty mud slinging. NASTY. They came to talk to my Neighborhood Association earlier this year. Stefani seems pretty bright.
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In Missouri, I see a last-minute burst by Robin Carnahan, a Zero disciple, who is going against Roy Blunt (R) for the Senate gig that Kit Bond (R) is leaving due to retirement.
Blunt is pretty sure to win though he's every bit as much a professional politician as those who have irked most American voters of late. All the same, he's most definitely a better candydate than Carnahan - hands down.
In the MO House delegation, one to watch pretty carefully is Ike Skelton (D) in the 4th District going up against Vicky Hartzler (R). Skelton's another career politician that's served in the House for 33 years and is the current chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. He's got a pretty good track record for veterans and the 2nd amendment. He's pro-life and he enjoys a fair amount of support throughout the state. Hartzler has identified herself with the Christian conservative movement.
Hartzler is a young up-and-comer, is accused of being a Mennonite (pacifist, which she rigorously denies), and is campaigning hard in protraying Skelton as being an Obamaite (he toed the party line when it came to Obamacare and the rest of the stimulus garbage).
That voting record right there is grounds enough to throw Skelton out, according to a lot of Missourians.
TVDOC may want to weigh in on this - he's been in Missouri a lot longer than I have and knows the players better too. I think DAT is in MO too.
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In Missouri, I see a last-minute burst by Robin Carnahan, a Zero disciple, who is going against Roy Blunt (R) for the Senate gig that Kit Bond (R) is leaving due to retirement.
That voting record right there is grounds enough to throw Skelton out, according to a lot of Missourians.
TVDOC may want to weigh in on this - he's been in Missouri a lot longer than I have and knows the players better too. I think DAT is in MO too.
The only observation that I would make is that Skelton (D-4) did NOT vote for Obamacare.......he was one of the few allowed "cover" by Pelosi when she added everything up and decided that she had the votes to pass it......she gave him an out because she knew voting yea would be suicide in his district, and he is very high in the Dem seniority list. Even if the Dems lose control of the HoR, she wanted him to remain as vice-chairman of the Armed Services Committee.
However.......he refused to conduct any public appearances or town meetings during the recess before the Obamacare vote........essentially he told his constituents that he basically didn't care what they had to say about the issue. This pissed a lot of folks off, and his district is historically a Dem district, although most are "Blue Dogs"..........I look for a close race, but in the end, when we look at the primary turnout for Republicans in August, I think that he will lose narrowly.
Blunt is, as you mentioned, a Washington insider. However, I have had several discussions with his staff over issues, and find him significantly more conservative than Kit Bond was in the last few years of his term. He also functioned admirably as majority/minority "Whip" in past sessions. I don't have many problems with Blunt, short of holding him accountable to his campaign positions.
The bottom line is that "turnout is everything" this year, and conservatives are motivated, and liberals are disappointed. All of the polling is based on the turnout statistics for prior elections, and I suspect that they are way off.......if what I suspect is true, conservative/Republican candidates are much farther ahead than the polls are showing. Then there is the "wave" effect.......historically every year that we have experienced a "wave" or voter revolt is a more correct term, the victors have always polled lower going in than the actual results, which creates lots of "surprises" on election night. Of further interest is that even the MSM is acknowledging that the House of Representatives is lost.........that will have a further dampening effect on Dem turnout........they are a volatile bunch at best, and if their perceived "control" is lost, many of them will sit this one out.
It is going to be fun to warch.
doc
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Doc, on the Skelton/Obamacare thing, I could've sworn I read that he'd signed on. Must've been thinking of someone else. Thanks for the correction - and the analysis.
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I will certainly report in on the California races, and I'll keep an eye on West Coast races as well, since I'll be up anyways :cheersmate:
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I'll be reporting in on the victory speech by Chris Gibson. 'Course, Carl may be there.
No,I will be here watching.
We did get between 200 and 300 turned out this morning in the cold to welcome bubba to Gibson country. :-)
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Nothing interesting going on in NJ-1 or 2 but I'm keeping an eye out on NJ-3 which has Jon Runyan (one of my favorite Philly Eagles players) running against freshman incumbent and POS John Adler (D). Adler and the Jersey Dem machine financed a fake "Tea Party" candidate, Peter DeStefano, to try to siphon conservative votes from Runyan -- they were found out, however, and exposed in a local newpaper piece that was picked up by local Philly stations.
Courier Post News Article (http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20101007/NEWS01/101007081/Democrats-Adler-campaign-backed-Tea-Party-candidate)
Congressman John Adler's campaign and the Camden County Democratic Committee recruited ""NJ Tea Party'' candidate Peter DeStefano to confuse conservative voters and hurt Adler's Republican challenger this fall, Democratic operatives say.
"The goal was to take 5 percent of (Republican Jon) Runyan's vote,'' said a Democrat with direct knowledge of the Adler campaign and CCDC operations.
Of course, denials all-round from Adler and DeStefano, but it's an extremely close race . . .
I'll let you all know what's going on.
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Issa ...I'm looking for data on Canseco vs. Ciro Rod'z..got anything?
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Issa ...I'm looking for data on Canseco vs. Ciro Rod'z..got anything?
Nope. Nothing up here. I am in Dallas though, so that isn't surprising. We have some people on the board here in Austin, Houston, and South Texas.... they may have heard something.
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Well I'll be looking...I'll be surprised if the Govt cheese eaters here vote right. I like being pleasantly surprised tho'. Listening to Rush now.
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I will do what I can reporting from MA. The land of the liberals. :banghead: :banghead:
God, I hope that commie Deval Patrick FAILS! :lmao:
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I'll be watching Oregon, Washington, and maybe California. If Dino Rossi isn't far enough ahead Patty Murray will engage the King County democrat machine and keep counting until the dem wins. Here I'm pretty sure we'll have a republican governor. I'm not sure if Wyden and DiFazio can be beaten but then it's an unusual year so we'll see.
Cindie
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DUmor Land in DefCon mode yet guys?
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Oh....had some security issues with the 'puter...anyway, I'm back..
We got rid of Ciro Rodriguez! Ya hoo! However, the county treasurer I wanted lost out to the Democrat Machine. Overall.....stunning victory..and let tnm keep Frank, Peloso and Ried for the face of the Democrats...I bet Obama is pissed about that! LOL