http://www.collinsreport.net/Oh my.
You know, this guy has a really good web-site, all of it well worth reading, on any topic.
Facts about polls you might not have heard about
October 1st, 2008
By Kevin “Coach†Collins
Recent poll numbers beg for further investigation into how polls work and are used to sometimes direct public opinion instead of reflect it.
The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) provides some answers.
The AAPOR suggests that of each 100 calls a typical pollster makes just 12 fully completed interviews of “registered†voters will be conducted. There are 88 calls that fail to meet the standard for a usable interview and are disgarded. There are hang-ups, bad numbers, answering machines and most frequently, refusals to even start. Consequently, in order to get 500 respondents, the usual number used in state polls, they have to make 6,000 calls.
As experience has shown us, “registered voters†are less reliable indicators of eventual electoral outcomes than “likely voters.†Since just 60% of registered voters are likely voters, the number of calls balloons to 9600. This is why, although it is the actual ‘gold standard†of polling, we rarely see polls of likely voters, except from the largest companies.
AAPOR acknowledges that pollsters can make polls “come out†as they want them to.
As AAPOR reports, there is nothing random about polls. Zogby uses Internet polls that beg for abuse by agenda motivated respondents.
Pollsters re-call the same people and admit doing so.
How else could they meet deadlines and budget targets?
When they “want†a poll showing McCain down 8 points, having a list of respondents who will say they favor Obama is very useful.
Polls are regularly used as psychological weapons to dampen the fighting spirit of Republican voters. They are never used to dampen Democrats.
Remember the final 2004 Election Day prediction from John Zogby saying John Kerry would get at least 310 Electoral votes? He was so wrong that his pronouncement could not possibly have been merely “an error.â€
Drama and close races are, after all, good for business.
