The Latest Polls

[Splashdown]

After Romney wins by a landslide, I hope all these false polls go out of business. Many of them outright manipulate or lie

Watch how they start skewing to more accurate numbers as the election draws near to keep their phoney-baloney reputations.

[Ausonius]

It's going to be close . . . until the last week or three.  Remember something--PM Netanyahu of Israel has said that if they don't feel confident of a Romney victory, they will strike Iran.  The new moon is around October 12th.

According to an astronomical site, the new moon is October 29th.

Or am I missing something?

Anyway...

We could have a case where deliberately biased – and possibly completely false – opinion polls would be telling the Israelis to attack Iran now.

As mentioned earlier above, what I am unsure of here is whether an October Israeli attack helps or hurts BIG BRObama.  If he condemns it, as I suspect he would, his base of pacifists and anti-Semites will be more than thrilled.  If he votes present and waffles on it with some vague message of supporting peace in the Middle East, a message released on a Friday night, will America care?  If he seems to support it, or in fact did support it with some sort of auxiliary military action, will America think that finally he is showing leadership, or will they be appalled that we are being dragged into another war?

We know (most probably) that Romney would support the action.

And what happens if such an attack is a disaster for the Israelis, or is inconclusive?  Or, successful or not, sets off massive rioting and murder against Western countries and their institutions across the planet?

Do Americans stay with MAObama under such conditions?  Would he (improbably) rise to the occasion and show leadership from the front?

The clock is ticking.

[BlueStateSaint]

According to an astronomical site, the new moon is October 29th.

Or am I missing something?

Anyway...

We could have a case where deliberately biased – and possibly completely false – opinion polls would be telling the Israelis to attack Iran now.

As mentioned earlier above, what I am unsure of here is whether an October Israeli attack helps or hurts BIG BRObama.  If he condemns it, as I suspect he would, his base of pacifists and anti-Semites will be more than thrilled.  If he votes present and waffles on it with some vague message of supporting peace in the Middle East, a message released on a Friday night, will America care?  If he seems to support it, or in fact did support it with some sort of auxiliary military action, will America think that finally he is showing leadership, or will they be appalled that we are being dragged into another war?

We know (most probably) that Romney would support the action.

And what happens if such an attack is a disaster for the Israelis, or is inconclusive?  Or, successful or not, sets off massive rioting and murder against Western countries and their institutions across the planet?

Do Americans stay with MAObama under such conditions?  Would he (improbably) rise to the occasion and show leadership from the front?

The clock is ticking.

Seeing that the harvest moon (first full moon after the beginning of Fall) just happened, the new moon would be 14 days after that, you might want to check what the wording is.

[Texacon]

If O'bama wins and it is within a couple of percentage points he has a HUGE problem.  He's the incumbent and if he has been doing a good job he should be running away with it.  He is not.

If O'bama wins and we make gains in the House and retake the Senate I personally won't give a damn.

If O'bama wins and we make no gains in the House and we don't retake the Senate we are well and completely screwed.

KC

[Ausonius]

If O'bama wins and it is within a couple of percentage points he has a HUGE problem.  He's the incumbent and if he has been doing a good job he should be running away with it.  He is not.

If O'bama wins and we make gains in the House and retake the Senate I personally won't give a damn.

If O'bama wins and we make no gains in the House and we don't retake the Senate we are well and completely screwed.

KC

Amen!   

I also have been mulling some future scenarios: MAObama wins this year, America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and the Dem brand is ruined for 40 years, allowing Republicans to have a 2014 veto-proof Congressional majority and Paul Ryan/Marco Rubio whoever to have a landslide in 2016.

Or...

MAObama wins this year,  America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and MAObama declares martial law nationally and begins nationalizing industries a la any banana-dictatorship in Central or South America, while spreading more hate the rich propaganda and solidifying his position for a 3rd term after suspending the Constitution "to protect poor Americans."

Or...

Romney wins this year,  America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and he gets blamed for everything a la Herbert Hoover, making a 2016 comeback by BIG BRObama inevitable.

Or...

Romney wins this year,  America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, but a Conservative approach prevents complete disaster, and the economy comes back fast enough to keep Dems at bay in 2014 and 2016.

[Ptarmigan]

Amen!   

I also have been mulling some future scenarios: MAObama wins this year, America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and the Dem brand is ruined for 40 years, allowing Republicans to have a 2014 veto-proof Congressional majority and Paul Ryan/Marco Rubio whoever to have a landslide in 2016.

Or...

MAObama wins this year,  America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and MAObama declares martial law nationally and begins nationalizing industries a la any banana-dictatorship in Central or South America, while spreading more hate the rich propaganda and solidifying his position for a 3rd term after suspending the Constitution "to protect poor Americans."

Or...

Romney wins this year,  America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, and he gets blamed for everything a la Herbert Hoover, making a 2016 comeback by BIG BRObama inevitable.

Or...

Romney wins this year,  America goes bankrupt, massive inflation and the ruin of the dollar occur, but a Conservative approach prevents complete disaster, and the economy comes back fast enough to keep Dems at bay in 2014 and 2016.

Obama will pull a Grover Cleveland.

[Ausonius]

Obama will pull a Grover Cleveland.

That is my first choice as well, and a very disconcerting one!  It would work only if Romney choked and started compromising with Dems, which would prevent any recovery from an economic disaster of bankruptcy/hyper-inflation/deflation whatever. 

Certainly MAObama's nemesis H. R. Clinton would have little chance because of what Glenn Beck termed some years ago The Hag Factor.   

[delilahmused]

I know these polls only compare presidential races every four years but I think the turn out this year will be closer to 2010 levels. As with then, the press and the left (but I repeat myself) are completely underestimating & ignoring what's happening under their noses. We're working, planning, registering & motivated. We just think our time is better spent making phone calls instead of shitting on cop cars.

Conservatives & independents will be out in droves. The left isn't as enthused. That's huge, especially given many of these polls sample registered voters. Many of those will be apathetic. And one of the things they never consider while oversampling dems...they may just create enough inevitability in their minds that many of them won't bother to vote.

Cindie

[BigTex]

ARG - North Carolina
D +10 Poll: Romney 50, Obama 46

2008 turnout: Romney 49, Obama 47

2004 turnout: Romney 54, Obama 42

Quinnipiac - National
Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45

2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 45

2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 46

[Kyle Ricky]

ARG - North Carolina
D +10 Poll: Romney 50, Obama 46

2008 turnout: Romney 49, Obama 47

2004 turnout: Romney 54, Obama 42

Quinnipiac - National
Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45

2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 45

2004 turnout: Romney 48, Obama 46

It is definitely not looking good for Barry Big Ears ...

[docstew]

It is definitely not looking good for Barry Big Ears ...

This thread is interesting for us to discuss the polls, but we ALL need to go and vote this year, regardless of the state you reside in.

[BigTex]

I know these polls only compare presidential races every four years but I think the turn out this year will be closer to 2010 levels. As with then, the press and the left (but I repeat myself) are completely underestimating & ignoring what's happening under their noses. We're working, planning, registering & motivated. We just think our time is better spent making phone calls instead of shitting on cop cars.

Conservatives & independents will be out in droves. The left isn't as enthused. That's huge, especially given many of these polls sample registered voters. Many of those will be apathetic. And one of the things they never consider while oversampling dems...they may just create enough inevitability in their minds that many of them won't bother to vote.

Cindie

For whatever reason midterm turnouts never seem to look like the next presidential turnout. But if you are interested in what a 2010 turnout would look like in relation to these polls the 2004 turnout was very similar to 2010. Romney might gain .5-1% from the switch between 2004 and 2010.

[Lacarnut]

I wish the pollsters would go away. I know that Romney is going to win. So, I do not need any stinking poll.

[BigTex]

Roanoke College - Virginia
Poll: Obama 48, Romney 40

2008 turnout: Obama 46, Romney 42

2004 turnout: Obama 45, Romney 43

Interesting that this poll didnt show how much they over sampled dems but they couldnt hide Romney winning independents by 13%. Looking at all these internals the only thing keeping Romney from straight out dominating them is that nearly all of democrats are decided 95/5 in favor of Obama but Romney is only looking at 85-90/5 from republicans. Who are these undecided republicans and what exactly are they waiting for? The choice is either Romney or Obama and they know they dont want Obama.

[delilahmused]

Roanoke College - Virginia
Poll: Obama 48, Romney 40

2008 turnout: Obama 46, Romney 42

2004 turnout: Obama 45, Romney 43

Interesting that this poll didnt show how much they over sampled dems but they couldnt hide Romney winning independents by 13%. Looking at all these internals the only thing keeping Romney from straight out dominating them is that nearly all of democrats are decided 95/5 in favor of Obama but Romney is only looking at 85-90/5 from republicans. Who are these undecided republicans and what exactly are they waiting for? The choice is either Romney or Obama and they know they dont want Obama.

They're all a FR lamenting the fact that there's no Jesus Christ/Rick Santorum ticket.

Cindie

[Kyle Ricky]

This thread is interesting for us to discuss the polls, but we ALL need to go and vote this year, regardless of the state you reside in.

This is true. Election day will show what the real poll number are.

[BigTex]

National Journal - National
Poll: Romney 47, Obama 47

2008 turnout: Obama 49, Romney 45

2004 turnout: Romney 49, Obama 45

NPR - National
D +5 Poll: Obama 51, Romney 44
no cross sections, 2008 voters: Obama 51, McCain 44

NBC/WSJ - National
D +6 Poll: Obama 49, Romney 46
no cross sections

NBC/WSJ - Florida
D +5 Poll: Obama 47, Romney 46
no cross sections

NBC/WSJ - Ohio
D +5 Poll: Obama 51, Romney 43
no cross sections

NBC/WSJ - Virginia
D +2 Poll: Obama 48, Romney 46
no cross sections

[Kyle Ricky]

Are there any polls that do not over sample Dems?

[BigTex]

Are there any polls that do not over sample Dems?

That new hampshire poll in the OP was an equal sample. the 2008 turnout has all the pollsters going crazy but in reality there will probably be about a D +2 turnout, breaking even like in 2004 would be a very good turn out.

[Ausonius]

They're all at FR lamenting the fact that there's no Jesus Christ/Rick Santorum ticket.

Cindie

That was my first thought: die-hard born-again Christians who cannot get past the Mormon connection.

As a Catholic I would much rather have a Mormon than a racist, Communist, fake-Christian and crypto-atheist like BIG BRObama.

[Eupher]

That was my first thought: die-hard born-again Christians who cannot get past the Mormon connection.

As a Catholic I would much rather have a Mormon than a racist, Communist, fake-Christian and crypto-atheist like BIG BRObama.

Steel on target -- though I'm not Catholic.

h5

[NHSparky]

They're all a FR lamenting the fact that there's no Jesus Christ/Rick Santorum ticket.

Cindie

Screw FR.

[BlueStateSaint]

Two new polls . . .

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/05/jobless-rate-falls-to-78-percent-in-september/

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-poll-romney-leads-51-48-among-those-certain-to-vote/article/2509947#.UG7vQU3A-gR

Looking good!

[docstew]

So when the unemployment number gets revised upward next week, as it has every report for the last 4 years, can Romney hit O again with it? How about next month when it's back over 8% because people start thinking "we're in a recovery, there must be some jobs out there that I can get" and the labor force gets larger.

[BigTex]

Gravis - Nevada
Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48

2008 turnout: Obama 51, Romney 46

2004 turnout: Romney 49, Obama 48

We ask america has Romney leading in Florida, Ohio and Virginia but the LINK doesnt work for me